Boston-winter08 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks like the GFS might come in closer to the 00z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 gfs looks like a few inches over the interior... edit...probably close even into bos actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 gfs looks like a few inches over the interior... edit...probably close even into bos actually Seems to be slowly coming around to a more consolidated low. I could see this thing ticking a little closer to the coast than currently modeled on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 thru 42 gfs is further west than the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 12z RGEM is a benchmark track (or thereabouts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 gfs looks like a few inches over the interior... edit...probably close even into bos actually Looks sort of like a pasty snow even near the coast. I suppose the one good thing, is that erly flow is light as the convergence zone basically sets up overhead. It looks like a mix here, than maybe flipping to snow near or before 12z as dynamics take over. It's marginal for a few hours here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks like the 12z GFS is coming around to last night's EC. More amplification, more north with the srn system, and a stronger, more focused sfc low. It's a little faster than the EC with the northern s/w though. We keep the inverted trough look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 GFS is a little stronger with the srn stream, so the result of a more consolidated low. Northern stream s/w still tries to give it a NORLUN appeal, but the upside of that may be to prolong lighter snows on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 12z RGEM is a benchmark track (or thereabouts) Looks pretty far outside it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Seems to be slowly coming around to a more consolidated low. I could see this thing ticking a little closer to the coast than currently modeled on the GFS. Like yesterday's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 4-6 sounds reasonable for my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks pretty far outside it. ya on B&W it does, but it looks closer on the color maps...idk, maybe it's just my eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Like yesterday's system. Without any blocking there really is nothing to stop it. Threading the needle here again. Too amped a system and it's mainly a rain event. You want just the right amount of interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 nice out today, good time to work on the roof, hopefully 2-4" on Tuesday, I'm skeptical about Th-Fr storm. That storm on Th-Fr is kind of looking like a no show for many/ if not all of us. I would not give up just yet however we could see something out of the storm. But as the time passes the storm is looking more and more like a no show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 12Z GFS seems like it nearly phases the northern stream but since it doesn't quite get there the trough ends up having a neutral tilt and sending the main low outside the benchmark. It wouldn't take much for those two streams to play a bit more nicely together and push the trough slightly negative bringing the track closer in with a stronger primary low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Seasonal trend for a stronger northern stream continues. Great Lakes / Ontario s/w is shearing less each run and actually becoming more neutrally tilted by Tuesday morning. The effect is to back the mid level winds more, and allow for more ridging downstream of the southern s/w. IMO this trend continues and we see a solid advisory to low end warning snow storm for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 ya on B&W it does, but it looks closer on the color maps...idk, maybe it's just my eyes There is a bit of difference on the maps now that you mention it. The colored maps have a min pressure of 983mb and the b/w are at 985mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 solid .50" for everyone question now is ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 That storm on Th-Fr is kind of looking like a no show for many/ if not all of us. I would not give up just yet however we could see something out of the storm. But as the time passes the storm is looking more and more like a no show. Looks like there is a lot of confluence over the northeast. Would not bode well for a system trying to come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 solid .50" for everyone question now is ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Seasonal trend for a stronger northern stream continues. Great Lakes / Ontario s/w is shearing less each run and actually becoming more neutrally tilted by Tuesday morning. The effect is to back the mid level winds more, and allow for more ridging downstream of the southern s/w. IMO this trend continues and we see a solid advisory to low end warning snow storm for many. Yeah both are sort of working in tandem, but I could see how the nrn stream may screw it up as well, if there is too much interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 solid .50" for everyone question now is ratios? Man people are infatuated with ratios. 10:1 and like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 There is a bit of difference on the maps now that you mention it. The colored maps have a min pressure of 983mb and the b/w are at 985mb. Look at the eastern side of the SLP on the color maps. Bagginess over there would suggest L should be further E? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The ultimate weenie solution would be to get a nice strong srn stream system, and have the nrn stream trough sort of capture the low and give an inv trough appeal. This would linger lighter snows into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Man people are infatuated with ratios. 10:1 and like it. said it before without knowing ratios you can not determine snow amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 tuesday's setup looks weird....i could see it trending stronger, but also weaker seems to me that banking on the occurrence of a unique situation (interaction b/w frontal system and LP way to to sea) so far this winter has failed (a la the several Norlun events) our big snows have come from synoptic events as many have said, our chances are increased through further amping of the jetstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 "solid .5" ???? This solidly says "nearly". lol Meanwhile, tree ice solidly melting. 33.1./26 ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Man the GFS is disgusting for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Man people are infatuated with ratios. 10:1 and like it. Let's shoot for some Utah champagne powder. 30:1+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 said it before without knowing ratios you can not determine snow amounts Just assume 10:1 until we get closer. Most of the storms here are around 10:1 or maybe 12:1. Can't go wrong with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.