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Looking beyond Feb 5-6th event


Baroclinic Zone

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You will snow into June, while BOS hits 70 in March. I don't see how that is attention seeking, it's reality...reality has set in, it can't snow forever.

I have no doubt it will snow here long after you lowlanders have swept your sidewalks and raked the Winter debris off your lawns but even for you there is much more Winter ahead, The reality is we're not quite through the first week of February and here you are saying that Winter is on the way out. Preposterous.

If you knew me you'd think differently. You know what they say about true merit, though.

We've met, you seem like a decent individual, just completely misguided.

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They say we get big big snows in La Nina Springs.... :snowman: March/April usallyy turns cold and it can be raw with back doors into early June.

Yup. Still a lot of snow and cold to go. Happens every year to the foolhardy. One or two 'mild' days and they start thinking Spring is right around the corner. Any life long New Englander that watches the weather as closely as we do knows that we're about 1/2 way through the best season of all.

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As you predicted, at the first sign of a brief relaxation of the storminess all the Warministas would rush in and proclaim Winter dead, I average over 40" from now until April and I expect I'll do better than that this year. I think people that are longing for Spring have a long road ahead of them. This Winter will linger and Spring will be delayed and once it gets here it will be cold and nasty. Gonna be a long time until BIrving gets to prance around in his european Speedo.

If you've ever been to the "Canadian Riviera" aka Old Orchard Beach in summer, you'd know that in New England the Speedo is the preferred banana hammock of our northern cousins ehhh?:lmao:

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I added a 1 inch protective sealant to my snow pack yesterday. :) No grass until April here....

I have no doubt it will snow here long after you lowlanders have swept your sidewalks and raked the Winter debris off your lawns but even for you there is much more Winter ahead, The reality is we're not quite through the first week of February and here you are saying that Winter is on the way out. Preposterous.

We've met, you seem like a decent individual, just completely misguided.

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Ski mrg how many times can you repeat the same thing per page? I signed on to see what Scott and Will had to say about Tuesday (along with Phil and others) and get two to three pages of you pms'ing over a few comments made in jest. Why do you care so much that a few may think winter is over? Do the comments melt your snow or an icicle each time?

You've made it pretty clear, we get it, can we discuss storm threats and not hear for the fiftieth time how cold and snowy it is where you live?

Is it time for sub forums for those that believe in the winter warlock or that live above 500'? It got into the 50s last night and there were borderline severe storms in a lot of places.

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Oh, yeah it was for many people, esp away from the coastline. However that doesn't mean some areas may have problem initially.

I'm wondering if this becomes more of a NORLUN feature. The GFS hinted at it, and it's not impossible.

because of the additional sw coming through the lakes?

12z nam kind of shows it fwiw

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Up to 30.3/25. Hopefull any time above freezing today will be minimal.

Much easier job on the generator than I had feared. It's cleared and runnin--hoping to use it's engine heat to melt around it's "cave".

Looks like the NAM gives us a couple inches. Given all model performance recently, I have no idea whether to accept this or have it become something more/less in 12 hours.

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Ski mrg how many times can you repeat the same thing per page? I signed on to see what Scott and Will had to say about Tuesday (along with Phil and others) and get two to three pages of you pms'ing over a few comments made in jest. Why do you care so much that a few may think winter is over? Do the comments melt your snow or an icicle each time?

You've made it pretty clear, we get it, can we discuss storm threats and not hear for the fiftieth time how cold and snowy it is where you live?

Is it time for sub forums for those that believe in the winter warlock or that live above 500'? It got into the 50s last night and there were borderline severe storms in a lot of places.

Probably about as many times as you can tell us how terrible the models are Scott. I like to be a counter balance for the all to often East centric flavor the threads take on. It may have reached into the 50's where you live but not here. You may be sharpening your lawnmower blades but I'm still sharpening skis. I'm not sure if there is an ignore feature here like there was at Eastern but if there is may I suggest you use it.

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Probably about as many times as you can tell us how terrible the models are Scott. I like to be a counter balance for the all to often East centric flavor the threads take on. It may have reached into the 50's where you live but not here. You may be sharpening your lawnmower blades but I'm still sharpening skis. I'm not sure if there is an ignore feature here like there was at Eastern but if there is may I suggest you use it.

Them be fightin' words. lol. It's an open forum--as long as things are on topic, let the comments rip I say.

30.4/25

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Probably about as many times as you can tell us how terrible the models are Scott. I like to be a counter balance for the all to often East centric flavor the threads take on. It may have reached into the 50's where you live but not here. You may be sharpening your lawnmower blades but I'm still sharpening skis. I'm not sure if there is an ignore feature here like there was at Eastern but if there is may I suggest you use it.

Yes but the models have something to do with the actual discussion of the pattern ahead. And for a time all we did was make excuses for the ncep guidance because of "the blocking" etc. The pattern changed and we just had the worst performance of the winter in ncep guidance. I think the point had merit and those still relying on ncep guidance like a Boston tv station Friday are taking hits.

You guys just spent a few pages mocking others that may believe something a little different. That's where all the problems and hard feelings can start and it's not something we are supposed to do here. It's nothing personal it just seems that people are overboard nimby and just to me anyway as protective of their snow cover as some are of their kids.

A week or so ago before the pattern change I was the dividing line. In the 2nd part of the event days ago it shifted well north. This time it made it well into Cne and Nne. The big snows aren't targeting ct every event and instead of being the dividing line I was in the low 50s along with a lot of se MA. The pattern has already changed, we will dip colder again for a few days before another pronounced change to warmer for at least a few more days.

In short it's playing out like many said it would...cold and snowy then more seasonable with fluctuating periods of weather. There is nothing major on the horizon ATM for most of sne which if it ever extended into next week would be a huge departure from what we have had.

I thought the consensus was that it would be a great start and then a fade to black/normal. The 50s tell me that may be happening as this uber thaw for interior se MA/ri last mfht was not part of another warmup set for later in the period.

We all have different climates. But denying something has changed is silly. For 45 days it snowed at absolutely every opportunity for most of you. That's changed for the time being at least.

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Dude...messenger thank you for writing that last post. I am a new member to this board because I a m a new member to southern new england and was really hoping for some cinsistent WEATHER talk and not the incesant banter about "who's winter is over" The last week in this forum has been dissapointing to say the least with a lot of off topic nonsense, arguing, complaining about losing .5 inches of snow pack, talk about who know who from high school etc. We are looking at the potential for some real interesting weather this week and one would be hardpressed to find even one post which discusses a model run. I think it comes down to the mpoderator ensuring that OT stuff goes in the right thread...otherwise this is quickly becoming page after page of copies of replies to banter that reads like abunch of text messages between two people rather than a community discussion.

jp

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i'd like to ask Will or Scott what is the wiggle room NW for the tuesday deal.

is our best shot for snows a deeper low trending NW ( with the trough axis ...hp or lack there of SPV etc )

or is a norlun roll of the dice

much thanks busy day and really just interested in hearing about the potential or lack there of of getting frozen qpf

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i'd like to ask Will or Scott what is the wiggle room NW for the tuesday deal.

is our best shot for snows a deeper low trending NW ( with the trough axis ...hp or lack there of SPV etc )

or is a norlun roll of the dice

much thanks busy day and really just interested in hearing about the potential or lack there of of getting frozen qpf

I'd like to see a more consolidated low, like the euro ensembles have. We should want the srn stream to be independent and stronger for this to happen. Right now, the nrn stream is interfering with everything, and we are seeing that NORLUN like feature.

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i'd like to ask Will or Scott what is the wiggle room NW for the tuesday deal.

is our best shot for snows a deeper low trending NW ( with the trough axis ...hp or lack there of SPV etc )

or is a norlun roll of the dice

much thanks busy day and really just interested in hearing about the potential or lack there of of getting frozen qpf

I'd think you like to start see some more phasing(consolidated system). The 00z GGEM/Ukie were pretty good last night. Don't know about the Euro since the maps are crap on E-Wall.

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I'd like to see a more consolidated low, like the euro ensembles have. We should want the srn stream to be independent and stronger for this to happen. Right now, the nrn stream is interfering with everything, and we are seeing that NORLUN like feature.

I'd think you like to start see some more phasing(consolidated system). The 00z GGEM/Ukie were pretty good last night. Don't know about the Euro since the maps are crap on E-Wall.

:thumbsup:

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I'd think you like to start see some more phasing(consolidated system). The 00z GGEM/Ukie were pretty good last night. Don't know about the Euro since the maps are crap on E-Wall.

Euro was not all that bad, Low passes east of the BM but there was snow for SNE and NNE, .50" here

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Yes but the models have something to do with the actual discussion of the pattern ahead. And for a time all we did was make excuses for the ncep guidance because of "the blocking" etc. The pattern changed and we just had the worst performance of the winter in ncep guidance. I think the point had merit and those still relying on ncep guidance like a Boston tv station Friday are taking hits.

You guys just spent a few pages mocking others that may believe something a little different. That's where all the problems and hard feelings can start and it's not something we are supposed to do here. It's nothing personal it just seems that people are overboard nimby and just to me anyway as protective of their snow cover as some are of their kids.

A week or so ago before the pattern change I was the dividing line. In the 2nd part of the event days ago it shifted well north. This time it made it well into Cne and Nne. The big snows aren't targeting ct every event and instead of being the dividing line I was in the low 50s along with a lot of se MA. The pattern has already changed, we will dip colder again for a few days before another pronounced change to warmer for at least a few more days.

In short it's playing out like many said it would...cold and snowy then more seasonable with fluctuating periods of weather. There is nothing major on the horizon ATM for most of sne which if it ever extended into next week would be a huge departure from what we have had.

I thought the consensus was that it would be a great start and then a fade to black/normal. The 50s tell me that may be happening as this uber thaw for interior se MA/ri last mfht was not part of another warmup set for later in the period.

We all have different climates. But denying something has changed is silly. For 45 days it snowed at absolutely every opportunity for most of you. That's changed for the time being at least.

Our few posts back and forth also were centered on the pattern ahead. Both Ginx and I feel that there is much more Winter weather ahead. As far as 'mocking', I'm sure that the the folks posting on a regular basis are not such fragile flowers that they can't withstand a little ribbing. The idea that somehow a brief relaxation from the constant barrage of storms is indicative of an end of Winter flies in the face of the reality of New England Winters. As for the Winter playing out as many said it would I have know idea whose pre-Winter thoughts you were referencing as the only people I know that were calling for a Winter with above average snowfall were Steve, Jerry and I. The consensus was that after the holidays Winter would be over. Phail. Every Winter has a lull, I see this as nothing more than an innocuous 2-day period with temps around 32. Funny you point to there being nothing in model guidance into next week but at the same time rail against model performance. Lastly, there are simply so many threads that it seems to me that the thread for the most current threat becomes the default banter thread. So on an early Sunday morning, with a lack of posts about current model output, a few posts back and forth expressing amusement about the premature end of Winter is completely accepable. Lighten up.

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Yup. Still a lot of snow and cold to go. Happens every year to the foolhardy. One or two 'mild' days and they start thinking Spring is right around the corner. Any life long New Englander that watches the weather as closely as we do knows that we're about 1/2 way through the best season of all.

[/quot

ok well now i dont feel so bad..so my earlier idea of an 1899 repeat still on the table..maybe just not late this week???

feb 1899 and mar 1888 ftw!!!!

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