OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On 2/6/2011 at 10:04 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Plenty of time. any other year that wouldn't be enough time...but this year...could be lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On 2/6/2011 at 10:04 PM, CT Rain said: They could have been referring to central and western Mass. there are clear boundary layer issues on the Euro (and not just 2M temps!) I'm pretty sure Will was referring to all except the CP...He's here now so maybe he can verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 not sure what it means, but 18z nogaps is really trending NW in the past few runs and is now just SE of the BM with what looks like a pretty good storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On 2/6/2011 at 10:10 PM, CT Blizz said: I'm pretty sure Will was referring to all except the CP...He's here now so maybe he can verify You guys are drawing semantic boundaries between 1-3 and 2-4, lol. I don't think it matters much. If we get a nice burst of precip, it will prob be snow in any elevated areas...if its too light, there could be some BL issues down by your area. We'll see what BL looks like on the runs tonight and tomorrow morning. Sometimes the BL can torch even up there at that elevation....remember the day after MLK storm last winter? It was cold enough in the MLs for snow there but you got a driving moderate rain for 3 or 4 hours while it was ripping aggregates here and you had that meltdown, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On 2/6/2011 at 6:02 PM, ORH_wxman said: Euro looks like a 2-4" type deal...maybe a bit less along the coast with some early BL issues. I was going by this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On 2/6/2011 at 10:13 PM, Boston-winter08 said: not sure what it means, but 18z nogaps is really trending NW in the past few runs and is now just SE of the BM with what looks like a pretty good storm Great catch... knowing it's bias, this might be worthy of attention I've never seen NOGAPS lead a NW trend lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I went with a statewide 3-6", highest east slopes of the Monadnocks and the southern Whites. A little bullish, but we'll see. I like what I see with the 18z NAM. A bit of convective feedback perhaps, and when the 00z run rolls in, probably low end warning criteria for a chunk of the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This is a "meh" event for just about everyone Still warm out 39.3F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On 2/6/2011 at 10:14 PM, ORH_wxman said: You guys are drawing semantic boundaries between 1-3 and 2-4, lol. I don't think it matters much. If we get a nice burst of precip, it will prob be snow in any elevated areas...if its too light, there could be some BL issues down by your area. We'll see what BL looks like on the runs tonight and tomorrow morning. Sometimes the BL can torch even up there at that elevation....remember the day after MLK storm last winter? It was cold enough in the MLs for snow there but you got a driving moderate rain for 3 or 4 hours while it was ripping aggregates here and you had that meltdown, lol. You should really just start to forecast one number and not a range... most members on here only read the higher number anyway The difference in those two forecasts is 3" vs. 4" to the weenie bus drivers... but in reality, its essentially the same forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On 2/6/2011 at 10:21 PM, powderfreak said: You should really just start to forecast one number and not a range... most members on here only read the higher number anyway The difference in those two forecasts is 3" vs. 4" to the weenie bus drivers... but in reality, its essentially the same forecast. Well Kevin was talking about 3-5" and I am forecasting 1-2" (though I expect his area to pick up 2"). There is a bit of a difference because Kevin always takes what is forecasted and adds an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On 2/6/2011 at 10:21 PM, powderfreak said: You should really just start to forecast one number and not a range... most members on here only read the higher number anyway The difference in those two forecasts is 3" vs. 4" to the weenie bus drivers... but in reality, its essentially the same forecast. Yeah most weenies will view a 5.7" snowfall on a 5-8" forecast as a bust. The problem with putting one number out though of course is that you can look a lot worse than a range at the whim of something like mesoscale banding or subsidence zone next to said banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On 2/6/2011 at 10:19 PM, wxwatcher91 said: I went with a statewide 3-6", highest east slopes of the Monadnocks and the southern Whites. A little bullish, but we'll see. I like what I see with the 18z NAM. A bit of convective feedback perhaps, and when the 00z run rolls in, probably low end warning criteria for a chunk of the interior. GFS continues to show a maximum of over 1/2" of liquid in southern VT... with .25-.5" widespread over New England. I think you're forecast is fine for the deeper interior where temps from 900mb to the surface will be plenty cold enough for all snow and likely higher ratios than closer to the coast. It'll be tough to hit 6", but I definitely think you're good for at least 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On 2/6/2011 at 10:14 PM, ORH_wxman said: You guys are drawing semantic boundaries between 1-3 and 2-4, lol. I don't think it matters much. If we get a nice burst of precip, it will prob be snow in any elevated areas...if its too light, there could be some BL issues down by your area. We'll see what BL looks like on the runs tonight and tomorrow morning. Sometimes the BL can torch even up there at that elevation....remember the day after MLK storm last winter? It was cold enough in the MLs for snow there but you got a driving moderate rain for 3 or 4 hours while it was ripping aggregates here and you had that meltdown, lol. Yeah--if 2 or 3" verifies, either forecast can claim a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 soundings for most of ct show rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On 2/6/2011 at 10:24 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah most weenies will view a 5.7" snowfall on a 5-8" forecast as a bust. The problem with putting one number out though of course is that you can look a lot worse than a range at the whim of something like mesoscale banding or subsidence zone next to said banding. Haha, yeah... I was completely joking, but just reading through the exchanges between Kevin, you, and Ryan, its obvious that Kevin's approval of the forecast hinges on that top number, not the low one. I definitely think ranges are the way to go and the way to look at a range, is to split the difference and assume the average number... but it is funny on here how weenie goggles cause an intense focus on the high end of the range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On 2/6/2011 at 10:19 PM, HubbDave said: This is a "meh" event for just about everyone Still warm out 39.3F Wow. I didn't realize you got that warm. We hit 33 this afternoon (actually we had higher at 2:20a.m.). 30.9/25 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 wow talk about flash freeze! nam shows temp at bdl 18z tues 31, 00zwed, 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On 2/6/2011 at 10:28 PM, JGNYK03 said: soundings for most of ct show rain ding ding ding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 GFS BDL.. 7AM TUES 32*, 7PM 6* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On 2/6/2011 at 9:40 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man.....I have never seen a snowpack this deep be so resilient....I lost 1" today. 28" depth. It's because of the sleet on Wednesday..Feb 2007 pack was like this, but it was only like 1\3 of the depth....I have never in my life seen a snowpack contain this kind of WE. WOW. High hit 39 and we are now 36.2\29 The sun hurt a lot of exposed areas. Well it's all relative, but I def noticed a loss of 4" or so in the sun areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 On 2/6/2011 at 10:19 PM, HubbDave said: This is a "meh" event for just about everyone Still warm out 39.3F We have a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 BDL is close all snow on GFS rain on NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On 2/6/2011 at 10:32 PM, CoastalWx said: The sun hurt a lot of exposed areas. Well it's all relative, but I def noticed a loss of 4" or so in the sun areas. 4" today alone......4" since last night, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On 2/6/2011 at 10:31 PM, JGNYK03 said: wow talk about flash freeze! nam shows temp at bdl 18z tues 31, 00zwed, 13 Add a NW wind gusting to 35 knots and that will feel awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On 2/6/2011 at 10:34 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: 4" today alone......4" since last night, maybe. 4" today alone in the sunny exposed areas. That hurt more than last night..lol. Sheltered areas very little loss today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 that map pretty much is exactly what you forecasted ryan... and what i think will happen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On 2/6/2011 at 10:36 PM, CoastalWx said: 4" today alone in the sunny exposed areas. That hurt more than last night..lol. Sheltered areas very little loss today. Wow....wouldn't have thought that....my yard is pretty protected. I guess on the strips near main roads could have lost that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 On 2/6/2011 at 10:37 PM, JGNYK03 said: that map pretty much is exactly what you forecasted ryan... and what i think will happen.. Sweet. 3-5 works just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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