Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looking into next week there are 2 potential events. The first one looks like a late bloomer that would give the potential for better snows further N into C/NNE. After that models are hinting at the potential for a big Miller A riding up the coast somewhere. 12z Euro for Feb 3 advertises an interior type threat while the 12z GFS give a snow bomb all the way to the coast. 12z GGEM leans towards the GFS solution as well with an offshore track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Everyone probably had their turn to geek-out over the day-8 Euro, but I was in class, so WOW! Is that a 940mb low south of Newfoundland with 100kt 850mb winds?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Everyone probably had their turn to geek-out over the day-8 Euro, but I was in class, so WOW! Is that a 940mb low south of Newfoundland with 100kt 850mb winds?! Now that's a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Hmmmmmm Much less stable of a pattern. Also, much more Nina like. In the past month we've seen a strong MJO wave track from the western Pacific to the dateline ... not at all Nina climo, and the mass field anomalies reflect this. Now however the MJO wave has collapsed, and we're seeing the Nina base state take command of the ship. Notice the strong Aleutian ridging and associated anomaly reversal over Alaska. And of course the polar field is very different ... for the time being. Like I said, I'm not ruling out big snows to come. I've been on the bandwagon for a big March and still some fun to come in February. Heck, I've taken over driving that bandwagon sometimes. Just saying, the atmosphere is taking a break for the time being from the factory line production of KUs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Everyone probably had their turn to geek-out over the day-8 Euro, but I was in class, so WOW! Is that a 940mb low south of Newfoundland with 100kt 850mb winds?! fitty fitty pumpin up the nao? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveSolutions Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looks like some VERY cold air pouring down into the Midwest and then spreading east Wednesday-Friday. Huge 500mb pressure falls over the Northeast. Then a big storm for the East late Thursday into Friday from Atlanta to Boston. Let's see if it stays on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Hello to my good friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Mother of God .. that storm on the GFS is a monster - N and S stream perfectly in phase bombs the low big time, sub 972 in the gulf of maine at 168 sub 952 north of maine at 174 ... heavy heavy hurricane force winds. A little over-done lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 18z GFS has a massive torch toward mid month that looks to last several days. Hopefully its wrong, but there are signs it could happen looking at the ECMWF ensemble mean...flow goes zonal for awhile and then potential -NAO might build back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 18z GFS has a massive torch toward mid month that looks to last several days. Hopefully its wrong, but there are signs it could happen looking at the ECMWF ensemble mean...flow goes zonal for awhile and then potential -NAO might build back in. If we have the fantasy storm , actually people would need it. Not unexpected to see a thaw, then it's back in the saddle. I'm baaaaaaaack, baaaaaaaack in the saddle again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 If we have the fantasy storm , actually people would need it. Not unexpected to see a thaw, then it's back in the saddle. I'm baaaaaaaack, baaaaaaaack in the saddle again. We haven't had a real thaw since around New Years, and even that one was only a couple of days. We'll probably get one around that time in mid Feb. There's a block in Scandanavia that develops and retrogrades into Greenland on the EC ensembles by around the 18th, so we'll see if that is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 18z GFS has a massive torch toward mid month that looks to last several days. Hopefully its wrong, but there are signs it could happen looking at the ECMWF ensemble mean...flow goes zonal for awhile and then potential -NAO might build back in. Terrible news..Awful...50's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Terrible news..Awful...50's? Hard to say what will happen yet. We could stay only slightly above normal....or we could torch for several days in the 50s. Hopefully it morphs into more of a midwest, M.A., SE torch where we only get a glancing blow and not the full brunt and have several days of highs in the 30s vs upper 40s or low 50s. But who knows, it could look different a week from now...but in the mean time we should try to rack up as much snow as possible if we are going for record depths, because it will probably take on some warmer weather mid-month unless things change a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hambone Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 From our buddy... Wxrisk.com This IMAGE should explain WHY this is looking more and more Like a Midwest Pattern. Like I said HERE and on the web site on WED ....the winter pattern that brought us the BIG NE snowstorms is OVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Terrible news..Awful...50's? Hopefully it's just a break, but this is what I was explaining earlier, before it got lost in all the La Epic rhetoric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Everyone probably had their turn to geek-out over the day-8 Euro, but I was in class, so WOW! Is that a 940mb low south of Newfoundland with 100kt 850mb winds?! Yes, I was just going to comment on that - This could be the event I have been sniffing out. Something about this winter is a little worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Hopefully it's just a break, but this is what I was explaining earlier, before it got lost in all the La Epic rhetoric. It's been quite a while since a grinch storm ... probably long overdue at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Just saw the 18zgfs WOW. a sub 936mb low NE of maine.. goes from sub 972 off the cape 12 hours later due north 300 miles to sub 936 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Just saw the 18zgfs WOW. a sub 936mb low NE of maine.. goes from sub 972 off the cape 12 hours later due north 300 miles to sub 936 "It Could Happen Tomorrow". er---it could happen next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 This is the Halifax 18ZGFS .. anyone tell me what this would translate at the surface in terms of winds?/ has south winds of 136 mph surface only shows SSE 43-54 mph seems low... would gusts be much higher? maybe reaching 100 mph? just wondering. 168 Thu 02/10 18Z 39 ° 39 ° 30 ° 38 ° SSE 43 S 1010.32 0.005445362 °-18 °990100 % 171 Thu 02/10 21Z 43 ° 43 ° 39 ° 42 ° SSE 54 S 1360.41 0.005545315 °-14 °97310 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It's been quite a while since a grinch storm ... probably long overdue at this point. It could be a gradient thing. Perhaps high heights, but maybe the cold oozes south enough to give us the goods. Just prepare for something that may be not so nice, especially down this way. Good news is that the ensembles and the weeklies try to build a weak to mdt -nao. This will battle the -PNA and se ridge hopefully. It may be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It could be a gradient thing. Perhaps high heights, but maybe the cold oozes south enough to give us the goods. Just prepare for something that may be not so nice, especially down this way. Good news is that the ensembles and the weeklies try to build a weak to mdt -nao. This will battle the -PNA and se ridge hopefully. It may be close. Did the weeklies this week lose that torch in the long range it had last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Did the weeklies this week lose that torch in the long range it had last week? No..days 12-18 are a torch at 850..Brutal. weeks 3 and 4 are near normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 No..days 12-18 are a torch at 850..Brutal. weeks 3 and 4 are near normal I think the torch is invevitable. Every seriously snowy winter has one. 1995-96 had 2 major long torches, one in Jan, one in Feb. 1993-94 had a small 3 day torch but temps were spectacularly high. Both of those years all the naysayers said pattern over. You know what happened. I was on Rochester, NY during the 1993-94 torch....60F with lakes for streets while feet of snow lie in the fields and even more feet in snowbanks. A day after I returned home, the cold/snow came back. Keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yes, I was just going to comment on that - This could be the event I have been sniffing out. Something about this winter is a little worrisome. Extreme patterns inevitably produce extreme events as a means to re-store balance. The homeostasis of Gaia at her best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yes, I was just going to comment on that - This could be the event I have been sniffing out. Something about this winter is a little worrisome. What are you thinking that is worrying you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What are you thinking that is worrying you? I don't see: - a meaningful thaw, wall to wall this winter. - an end to repeating storms, which is an artifact of a solar min (most likely) driven suppression of the westerlies in latitude in constant fight with rare antithetic ENSO - the two bring into existence ambient gradients N to S through mid latitudes everywhere that are extreme for planetary physics, and the steady stream of impulses is a function of just about any perturbation anywhere getting a tremendous positive feed-back off of tapping into ambient positive instability. I do see: -clearly we are seeing the previous notion of a meaningful -PNA collapsing, and yet another -NAO (that is not yet in magnitude on the models btw...) emerging, related to the previous point. -there is an SSWE underway, which is linearly heavily correlated to occurring during onset and in situ solar minuma; if propagating in nature, drills the AO to hell. -logistical madness with snow management gets no alleviation .... CULMINATING IN -a dangerous scenario if a category 6 rumbles up the coast. This 18z ...12z earlier for that matter, are just whack close to paralyzing the area, and i don't mean in a ha-ha 'isn't that cool', bring it on way - i mean, people could die there. we get a 10" blue snow cap this weekend, which will be a helluva lot more difficult to manage than these nice powder affairs of late, into an already constipated mega pack. ...then, if the NAO explodes next week, which i am 50/50 at this point that what is an emerging signal is not yet in magnitude on the runs, that 18z is not only a full latitude phaser, but it slows down. All of this is on the table and not discountable just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Hopefully it's just a break, but this is what I was explaining earlier, before it got lost in all the La Epic rhetoric. Oh now it's rhetoric, in the fall it was fantasy weenism, that's OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I don't see: - a meaningful thaw, wall to wall this winter. - an end to repeating storms, which is an artifact of a solar min (most likely) driven suppression of the westerlies in latitude in constant fight with rare antithetic ENSO - the two bring into existence ambient gradients N to S through mid latitudes everywhere that are extreme for planetary physics, and the steady stream of impulses is a function of just about any perturbation anywhere getting a tremendous positive feed-back off of tapping into ambient positive instability. I do see: -clearly we are seeing the previous notion of a meaningful -PNA collapsing, and yet another -NAO (that is not yet in magnitude on the models btw...) emerging, related to the previous point. -there is an SSWE underway, which is linearly heavily correlated to occurring during onset and in situ solar minuma; if propagating in nature, drills the AO to hell. -logistical madness with snow management gets no alleviation .... CULMINATING IN -a dangerous scenario if a category 6 rumbles up the coast. This 18z ...12z earlier for that matter, are just whack close to paralyzing the area, and i don't mean in a ha-ha 'isn't that cool', bring it on way - i mean, people could die there. we get a 10" blue snow cap this weekend, which will be a helluva lot more difficult to manage than these nice powder affairs of late, into an already constipated mega pack. ...then, if the NAO explodes next week, which i am 50/50 at this point that what is an emerging signal is not yet in magnitude on the runs, that 18z is not only a full latitude phaser, but it slows down. All of this is on the table and not discountable just yet. Wow! The truth is the weenie in me says bring it but the adult in me worries as well. What would happen if food were not possible to obtain (thanks to my wife's obsession in the pantry...would probably survive a month. But a deeper worry to me is where are we going beyond this season? Nevertheless, it has been an epic winter and until the life/limb scenario starts to verify, it's hard not to completely enjoy it so that I shall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I don't see: - a meaningful thaw, wall to wall this winter. - an end to repeating storms, which is an artifact of a solar min (most likely) driven suppression of the westerlies in latitude in constant fight with rare antithetic ENSO - the two bring into existence ambient gradients N to S through mid latitudes everywhere that are extreme for planetary physics, and the steady stream of impulses is a function of just about any perturbation anywhere getting a tremendous positive feed-back off of tapping into ambient positive instability. I do see: -clearly we are seeing the previous notion of a meaningful -PNA collapsing, and yet another -NAO (that is not yet in magnitude on the models btw...) emerging, related to the previous point. -there is an SSWE underway, which is linearly heavily correlated to occurring during onset and in situ solar minuma; if propagating in nature, drills the AO to hell. -logistical madness with snow management gets no alleviation .... CULMINATING IN -a dangerous scenario if a category 6 rumbles up the coast. This 18z ...12z earlier for that matter, are just whack close to paralyzing the area, and i don't mean in a ha-ha 'isn't that cool', bring it on way - i mean, people could die there. we get a 10" blue snow cap this weekend, which will be a helluva lot more difficult to manage than these nice powder affairs of late, into an already constipated mega pack. ...then, if the NAO explodes next week, which i am 50/50 at this point that what is an emerging signal is not yet in magnitude on the runs, that 18z is not only a full latitude phaser, but it slows down. All of this is on the table and not discountable just yet. I believe we are headed for truly historic snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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