Voyager Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 So, still whining, but now it's for winter to be over? You're pretty tough to please... I know right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 06z gfs operational looked a little better than 0z, however, the ensembles were pretty much OTS. I think this is better than having some cutters at this point, a la last storm. What I do not want is another ice storm! Dry or SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 FWIW, this is reminding me ALOT of the storm we had right before Christmas.....went off the coast and was a scraper. We all know what happened withthe followup system on 12/26 and there are some signals that the blocking forms in Western Greenland and a small +PNA is positioned in the right spot. Perhaps mid-month is where we get the next "big" hit? Just something to ponder for those of us who believe in pattern repeats. With every climate signal pointing towards the development a robust SE ridge around Valentine's Day, I don't see this happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah I think that winter here in Northern DE is pretty much over after Valentine's day so we reeeeally need next week's event to pan out. I'm encouraged that at least everything now is OTS and not inland because usually once models lock on the inland solution they rarely seemed to move back east. With every climate signal pointing towards the development a robust SE ridge around Valentine's Day, I don't see this happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Call me stunned if this does not trend back to a major east coast snowstorm this week...I would expect most models to start coming back toward the coast with the 0z runs this evening. Of course the GFS will likely be last to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Call me stunned if this does not trend back to a major east coast snowstorm this week...I would expect most models to start coming back toward the coast with the 0z runs this evening. Of course the GFS will likely be last to the party. Agreed 100%. The pattern with these things is always the same. I bet in the end we sweat whether it is coming too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 With every climate signal pointing towards the development a robust SE ridge around Valentine's Day, I don't see this happening. I'm likely misreading the pattern repetition and getting too far ahead. Maybe this Tuesday system is the "grazer" and the Frb 9-11 event is the big hit? Either way, there was a grazer right before the 12/26 system and if I'm not mistaken, before the late January I-95 hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I'm likely misreading the pattern repetition and getting too far ahead. Maybe this Tuesday system is the "grazer" and the Frb 9-11 event is the big hit? Either way, there was a grazer right before the 12/26 system and if I'm not mistaken, before the late January I-95 hit? That seems more plausible. There has definitely been lead grazers this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 FWIW here are the latest analogs through 120hrs over the east. Very few hits in there. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=120&flg=new&map=COSN&sort=FINAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 TWC forecast has "snow" for Thursday and they're almost never this bullish a week out. They must be seeing something we're not! /weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The early week storm is VERY important as it lays down colder air for the late week potential which has the best setup out of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Mt. Holly was very bullish yesterday as well, in there point and click forecast for my zone it already said snow heavy at times jinx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 gfs has good deal of lower hgts so far on the ec through hr 90...though it looks like its bringing more energy out than 6z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 12z GFS looks similar to 6z. Very cold air in place by 84hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 looks a good bit less amplified through hr 105.. also lower hgts along the ec...northern stream isnt diving down as much as 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 yea this probably going to be worse than 6z. The whole trof is broader than 6z, the confluence is a beast also....not nearly as amplified either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yup - a little weaker than 6z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Still right off the coast. I can't get over how much it starts looking like 12/26 around hour 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Still right off the coast. I can't get over how much it starts looking like 12/26 around hour 126 I'm in complete shock. The GFS at 120 hours out has a storm suppressed south and east. Who would ever predict that coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I'm in complete shock. The GFS at 120 hours out has a storm suppressed south and east. Who would ever predict that coming. You compare this to 12z yesterday where the gfs had this tracking way south of us and then right off the coast not even getting near us. 12z today is much better and closer to the coast. Why people are compaing this to 06z is beyond me. This is as close as you want the gfs right now. Can't expect a mecs every single run. All the potential is right there and you guys have to remember we are still 5-6 Days out so relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I'm in complete shock. The GFS at 120 hours out has a storm suppressed south and east. Who would ever predict that coming. GFS being suppressed five days out is like AP/PR being full of fighting and dung-slinging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 You compare this to 12z yesterday where the gfs had this tracking way south of us and then right off the coast not even getting near us. 12z today is much better and closer to the coast. Why people are compaing this to 06z is beyond me. This is as close as you want the gfs right now. Can't expect a mecs every single run. All the potential is right there and you guys have to remember we are still 5-6 Days out so relax. Agreed. We all know that if the GFS was showing an Apps runner right name the game would be over. Once the models are west of you, they never correct east. However time and time again the models, and i am including them all will be off the coast and correct west with time. This is a Thursday event, not tomorrow or Monday, but Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 You compare this to 12z yesterday where the gfs had this tracking way south of us and then right off the coast not even getting near us. 12z today is much better and closer to the coast. Why people are compaing this to 06z is beyond me. This is as close as you want the gfs right now. Can't expect a mecs every single run. All the potential is right there and you guys have to remember we are still 5-6 Days out so relax. Today's 12Z is *slightly* better than 12Z yesterday. Not much, really, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GFS being suppressed five days out is like AP/PR being full of fighting and dung-slinging. You POS moron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Today's 12Z is *slightly* better than 12Z yesterday. Not much, really, though. Honestly until about Monday i really don't care what the GFS shows. At that time it will be getting close to its kill zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 We need the storm on Tuesday to completely phase and bomb out offshore. Right now the GFS doesn't phase in the northern stream and it ends up as a second low pressure. That features is too far west and helping to lower heights along the coast. Then on the back side we need a piece of the PV to dig further S/W and phase with the southern stream energy being ejected out of the SW. The timing needs to be perfect. I'm starting to feel a little more pesimistic about this, we need alot of things to be handeled differently in the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Today's 12Z is *slightly* better than 12Z yesterday. Not much, really, though. If I remember correctly wasn't yesterdays 12z a nC snowstorm then right east barely getting any precip up towards us? We at least get some precip up to us this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 If I remember correctly wasn't yesterdays 12z a nC snowstorm then right east barely getting any precip up towards us? We at least get some precip up to us this run. With yesterday's run the furthest north that the precip made it in the 6-hour time steps was Ocean City, MD out to the benchmark. Today its Cape May to Cape Cod. So like I said, *slightly* better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 gfs ens mean is crushed to bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 ggem is the same ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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