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February 9-11 Potential


Harbourton

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Well, i wrote this up earlier.. before the 12z EURO..Enjoy:

Alrite, i'm gonna do my best to keep this technically simple. Maybe people can even learn a thing or two!

First, this far out, it's best to look at what the pattern might look at. TO look for the pattern, you have to look at the "teleconnectors such as AO, NAO, PNA, EPO etc....

First, the PNA, which will be positive, which is good, evident of a west coast ridge

Great write up!

For those of you who still have major issues with the split of NYC/PHL please don't clog storm threat threads with the complaining. There were other threads created for people to complain about it.

This really is an oppurtunity for those of us in this region to discuss the weather and its possible impacts on us, and us alone. Its simple to hop over to the NYC forum and read up real quick on the few storm threats for the upcoming week for their insight. Like others have said, check out the Weather Forecasting and Discussion section, plenty of great mets. discussing upcoming storms on a larger scale.

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Hey guys,

I don't want to keep addressing this, but it was agreed upon by many posters, moderators, and most importantly admin that the volume in the subforum was too large to have constructive threads. It looks like I am the only meteorologist besides the Mt. Holly guys in here. I'll do my best to try to keep things active and answer questions whenever possible.

In the mean time, I highly encourage you guys to check out the threads in the main forum. I'll be posting out there a lot too and you may find answers to your questions there.

Cheers!

Adam

Hey Adam, I'll take you, Tony, and Mike over the diluted threads that we previously had any day. Thanks for taking care of us!

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I will be doing the euro pbp tonight, even though i have work tomorrow morn. Hopefully you guys will be around for it.

Thanks Tom I will be here you do a great PbP for the euro as well as giving some good analysis on all the models glad to have you on the Philly fourum!

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I will be doing the euro pbp tonight, even though i have work tomorrow morn. Hopefully you guys will be around for it.

25 minutes go by after a Tombo post. Unprecendented!

Mets/Mods/Top Ams are mad at me and I will shut up now --- but that never happens. Will be here and watching Tombo!

So I'll provide a nugget. One of the things that was most striking to me about how 12/26 played out was the AFD by Mt. Holly about 4 or 5 days prior to the event. It was a young lady that was on site during a briefing that 'brought up' the point of how some of the most incredible storms can happen during a 'pattern change'. At that point, the Euro was nailing the storm run after run and we were all brought back in every day at 1PM and 1AM just to be discouraged by the GFS and other globals time and time again. Then, when the Euro lost the storm and 2 days before --- boom. The GFS solution appeared, HPC shouted errors --- only to watch the NAM and GFS to follow that famous Xmas Eve I will never forget. You need only to go back to the 12z and 6z run from this morning to see that the GFS sees it. http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/_slp_gfs_all_12.htm

This set up is not that much different IF the first low blows up and helps create the blocking. The Euro has nailed this storm multiple times (let's see how the next 3 or 4 runs go) and the GFS is all of a sudden suppressed and out to sea. I'm not a met, but this is strikingly similar. The trends aren't perfect, but Irish's post shows that they're not THAT far off.

Gut feelings don't often fly in serious analysis. But something screams different about this storm...

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irishbri, that's a great post. The only qualm I have with it is not discussing the strength of the subtropical ridge, but it's a minor quibble. Good work!

Yea, my bad. I tend to overlook that, especially this winter and past since it's been of little influence. But as a la Nina typical pattern at play, I should have touched. It's been a factor as of late. Thanks for the nice words. It's a bit intimidating posting stuff like that on here, especially with pro mets like you and other knowledgeable ams around and being wrong. But I'd rather be wrong and someone point it out so I can learn from it.

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25 minutes go by after a Tombo post. Unprecendented!

Mets/Mods/Top Ams are mad at me and I will shut up now --- but that never happens. Will be here and watching Tombo!

So I'll provide a nugget. One of the things that was most striking to me about how 12/26 played out was the AFD by Mt. Holly about 4 or 5 days prior to the event. It was a young lady that was on site during a briefing that 'brought up' the point of how some of the most incredible storms can happen during a 'pattern change'. At that point, the Euro was nailing the storm run after run and we were all brought back in every day at 1PM and 1AM just to be discouraged by the GFS and other globals time and time again. Then, when the Euro lost the storm and 2 days before --- boom. The GFS solution appeared, HPC shouted errors --- only to watch the NAM and GFS to follow that famous Xmas Eve I will never forget. You need only to go back to the 12z and 6z run from this morning to see that the GFS sees it. http://www.txtornado..._gfs_all_12.htm

This set up is not that much different IF the first low blows up and helps create the blocking. The Euro has nailed this storm multiple times (let's see how the next 3 or 4 runs go) and the GFS is all of a sudden suppressed and out to sea. I'm not a met, but this is strikingly similar. The trends aren't perfect, but Irish's post shows that they're not THAT far off.

Gut feelings don't often fly in serious analysis. But something screams different about this storm...

surprisingly (to me) hurricane schwartz has even been mentioning the potential of next week on air

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25 minutes go by after a Tombo post. Unprecendented!

Mets/Mods/Top Ams are mad at me and I will shut up now --- but that never happens. Will be here and watching Tombo!

So I'll provide a nugget. One of the things that was most striking to me about how 12/26 played out was the AFD by Mt. Holly about 4 or 5 days prior to the event. It was a young lady that was on site during a briefing that 'brought up' the point of how some of the most incredible storms can happen during a 'pattern change'. At that point, the Euro was nailing the storm run after run and we were all brought back in every day at 1PM and 1AM just to be discouraged by the GFS and other globals time and time again. Then, when the Euro lost the storm and 2 days before --- boom. The GFS solution appeared, HPC shouted errors --- only to watch the NAM and GFS to follow that famous Xmas Eve I will never forget. You need only to go back to the 12z and 6z run from this morning to see that the GFS sees it. http://www.txtornado..._gfs_all_12.htm

This set up is not that much different IF the first low blows up and helps create the blocking. The Euro has nailed this storm multiple times (let's see how the next 3 or 4 runs go) and the GFS is all of a sudden suppressed and out to sea. I'm not a met, but this is strikingly similar. The trends aren't perfect, but Irish's post shows that they're not THAT far off.

Gut feelings don't often fly in serious analysis. But something screams different about this storm...

Found it and while I'm a weenie for hunting this down, this AFD was the one I NEVER let go of for 12/26 and, somehow, this one feels similar. Keep in mind this was SIX full days before it happened. Funny that someone at NWS accidentally posted, "The snow could be heavy at times" earlier today. I just feel this one...

Posted: (December 20, 2010 05:43 am) Just read this and had to post this before heading off to bed:

Synopsis...

a high pressure system over the Ohio Valley will slowly ease

southeast today into Tuesday and weaken. An ocean storm will move

toward Newfoundland and stall during the middle of the week. A

low pressure system will move into the northern plains today and

start weakening as it passes southwest of the area Tuesday night.

A lobe of a high pressure system will then build into the area on

Wednesday through Friday before it too weakens. A low pressure

system should then emerge from The Rockies Thursday, dive toward

the Gulf Coast on Friday and make a turn northeast near the

eastern Seaboard next weekend.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...

I just get the sneaking suspicion that the only section anyone is

going to be interested in reading today is the long term.

Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...

since snow records were kept in Philadelphia, there has been only

one instance of a moderate or strong La Nina winter that produced a

double digit winter storm event as measured in Philadelphia. That

occurred coincidentally during a winter storm that began on

Christmas day and lasted into the 26th in 1909. Flash forward 101

years and while its way too early to accurately forecast

accumulations, we might have some ptype issues to boot, the synoptic

pattern is still indicating the potential for a significant winter

event to impact the eastern Seaboard. A couple of other factors

are adding corroboration about this potential. The global wind

oscillation is entering phases where historically larger snow

events have occurred in the past. Its also been noted by heather

archambault that large precipitation events often occur during

pattern change time and there are indications that the cold

pattern we have been for most of this month may relax after the

storm passes. Neither are guarantees, but more pieces of the

puzzle are coming into place.

The driver in this whole process is going to be a vortex over the

eastern Pacific, that will pump up the ridging over The Rockies and

downstream carve a strong trough. The uncertainty right off The Bat

and for the lifetime of this event is that eastern Pacific vortex

which is never forecast to reach the data rich radiosonde observation sites in North

America, but with time retrograde toward Alaska. We will be able to

measure the strength of the Rocky Mountain ridging as a by-product

of the former's influence. On tonight's run the model evolution in

general was toward stronger ridging over The Rockies. Consequently

the low pressure system is forecast to make a greater turn exiting

The Rockies vs the Bee-line the models gave it last night for the

East Coast. This has slowed the precipitation arrival down on average by half

a day. The European model (ecmwf) digs the initial trough more than any model in the

Desert Southwest and for now this should be looked with caution as

it is a known model bias. It made the same error with the present

system. For what its Worth the European model (ecmwf) ensemble mean is faster and

not as tucked into the New Jersey coast. The op European model (ecmwf) solution as is would

change the snow to rain for a while in eastern New Jersey.

Conversely the current GFS solution is on the fast side of the

envelope and that's its known model bias. For the goldilocks

compromise tonight with any adjustments we made, we went with a

UKMET and can ggem compromise.

Another day closer to Christmas, and the threat of measurable snow

still exists. Most computer models are still indicating that there

could be a significant East Coast storm for the coming Holiday

weekend. And they are keeping the storm to our south, so we would

remain on the cold side, meaning that the precipitation would fall

as snow. Timing of the event is still up in the air. The GFS brings

it in early, with most of the snow occurring Friday night and

Saturday. The European model (ecmwf) is slower, with the majority Saturday night into

Sunday. So we will spend the next few days refining what could be a

very interesting event. For now, will have snow mentioned in the

forecast Friday night into Sunday with the highest pops, the most

likely time, Saturday day and Saturday night. In the days leading

into this possible storm, the weather will be quite tranquil. Wrap

around moisture from a Newfoundland storm getting this south is rare

indeed and we kept Wednesday night dry other than flurries north.

High pressure, dropping down from the upper Midwest, will dominate

our weather Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will remain slightly

below normal with highs Thursday and Friday in the upper 20s and

30s. Lows Wednesday night and Thursday night will range from the middle

and upper teens in the northern mountains to the upper 20s in the

southern coastal areas. Temperatures over the weekend will depend on

the development and timing of the storm. If it does develop into a

full blown East Coast storm, temperatures will settle into the upper

teens and 20s. It should be an interesting week watching this

possible white Christmas develop. Enjoy!!

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^ Yeah I heard him say something, and he was all like paranoid about it, and not to happy.

Yes, there are 2 factors involved:

1. Our viewers are sick and tired of all the snow and ice. If I sounded or looked excited, they would be even more upset.

2. I am exhausted from all these threats, big and small (even the small ones lead to great stress and extra work).

Last year was much more fun, with just a few events, but all of them huge. And no stinkin' ice.

Glenn

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Yes, there are 2 factors involved:

1. Our viewers are sick and tired of all the snow and ice. If I sounded or looked excited, they would be even more upset.

2. I am exhausted from all these threats, big and small (even the small ones lead to great stress and extra work).

Last year was much more fun, with just a few events, but all of them huge. And no stinkin' ice.

Glenn

Perfectly stated Glenn!

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^ Yeah I heard him say something, and he was all like paranoid about it, and not to happy.

If the PV phases in perfectly, we can end up with something historic.....or with less PV interaction we could get a MECS as the 12z Euro indicated. I suspect that the GFS will be jumping back on board very soon. As I mentioned last night before the GFS lost the storm today, I could see it moving towards an OTS and then non-event solution, and now it will probably start taking slow steps towards bringing it back. Seems very typical for the GFS this season. These types of situations are so fragile. A slight variation in the overall synoptics could mean the difference between a lakes cutter and a rain storm for Bermuda.

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Yes, there are 2 factors involved:

1. Our viewers are sick and tired of all the snow and ice. If I sounded or looked excited, they would be even more upset.

2. I am exhausted from all these threats, big and small (even the small ones lead to great stress and extra work).

Last year was much more fun, with just a few events, but all of them huge. And no stinkin' ice.

Glenn

What has made it even worse, last year was basically clear cut set that it was going to be mainly snow, the problem was would the storm reach us. This year inside 72 hrs the models have made big changes that cause the stress like you stated. With the last ice storm and the boxing day storm.

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Yes, there are 2 factors involved:

1. Our viewers are sick and tired of all the snow and ice. If I sounded or looked excited, they would be even more upset.

2. I am exhausted from all these threats, big and small (even the small ones lead to great stress and extra work).

Last year was much more fun, with just a few events, but all of them huge. And no stinkin' ice.

Glenn

Couldn't agree more Glenn. You hear it out there. Enough is enough. I was just in Dallas today (thank GOD I got home) and it's a nightmare down there. The people are fed up and don't want to hear 'more bad news'. Also, last year we had large storms that were 'weekend storms' (12/21 and 2/6) --- and that always helps. The public grabs a cup of coffee in their PJs and watches you as opposed to figuring out whether or not to leave for work.

Even this storm this past Tuesday was a nightmare and you were the first and only one at 11PM to really let people know about the Ice Storm Warning.

You've always done a great job and I always tout you as the guy to listen to on TV. I feel your pain and hope this next event comes clear for you sooner than later --- no matter the outcome.

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Yes, there are 2 factors involved:

1. Our viewers are sick and tired of all the snow and ice. If I sounded or looked excited, they would be even more upset.

2. I am exhausted from all these threats, big and small (even the small ones lead to great stress and extra work).

Last year was much more fun, with just a few events, but all of them huge. And no stinkin' ice.

Glenn

I'm sure it's hard for you because you have to watch these threats all the time, make tough forecasts, and deal with those who don't like snow. Know though that some viewers love snow - I'm not tired of winter storms at all. Of course it's easier for me because I casually follow storms for fun and love snow to begin with.

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Yes, there are 2 factors involved:

1. Our viewers are sick and tired of all the snow and ice. If I sounded or looked excited, they would be even more upset.

2. I am exhausted from all these threats, big and small (even the small ones lead to great stress and extra work).

Last year was much more fun, with just a few events, but all of them huge. And no stinkin' ice.

Glenn

Great post, Glenn! I'm with you on the ice, and I can imagine how tracking all of these small events must stress & burn you out with all of the extra work.

Just remember that, while I'm sure we are in the minority, there are a bunch of us on here still rooting for another huge snowstorm or two.

We also appreciate it when you sneak in a mention of the lack of blocking, the computer models, or the different warm layers aloft.

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Light snow about to reach phl at 132 but a weak and disorganized system

Personally, I'm not buying that part of the GFS solution (or at 12/18z for that matter). With the cold high dropping down out of the Yukon, a massive baroclinic zone will be setting up. No matter what track the low takes, it should be a lot deeper than the GFS is depicting.

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