Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah, but it's rare to get a southern stream shortwave make that much progress into a Bermuda high. Look at the shape of the isobars around 144 in the Euro. It just doesn't look "right." Not to say these can't be trending in the right direction, they very well could be, but I'm going to need a few more runs to come off my Nina climo forecast. Yeah I'm not sold in this either. What I was saying though is that the change of phasing to no phase does support a farther south and east solution from previous track depictions. I hear what you are saying wrt the SE ridge, but the PV is doing it's best to squash the heights. IDK...just need to sit back and wait a few more days before giving a suppressed solution credence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yeah I'm not sold in this either. What I was saying though is that the change of phasing to no phase does support a farther south and east solution from previous track depictions. I hear what you are saying wrt the SE ridge, but the PV is doing it's best to squash the heights. IDK...just need to sit back and wait a few more days before giving a suppressed solution credence. Yep, I agree with what you are saying. Verbatim, you are absolutely correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Not even referencing the phasing versus not phasing... You have the GFS which is well south and east of the region and you have the ECM which actually does come up the coast but its still what i would consider south and east... You have a positive AO which is not indicative of a really strong push of cold air.. You have a positive NAO which is also not really indicative of strong cold air across the region.. You have a PNA that is still slightly positive but heading negative ..again not indicative of a large trough along the east... You pretty much have a negative EPO which is pretty much indicates a SE ridge would be in place... You have pretty much the next two systems including this weekend and monday and tuesday pretty much cutting west and then moving ENE....so with the teleconnections the same i do not see an argument regardless of phasing versus non phasing of something to the south and east.. i think the models IMO are pretty much lost at this point and time... If you are going to have a pattern change then I would suggest that we would have to have a large storm..cause that usually ushers in a pattern change... Looking at latest teleconnectors, for next week time frame, seems like the ao and nao want to go negative/ neutral. Posting from my iPhone, but I'll post them later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Wow does the storm look that bad for philly? Or did the board die? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Wait I thought this was trending to become a I-95 Storm. Trends today vs. yesterday were for a more easterly track, that would give our region a better chance of snow, or potentially no precipitation at all if the storm somehow tracked too far out at sea. Still plenty of room for a further west track (like depicted yesterday on some models) with mainly rain in our neck of the woods and big snows in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Wow does the storm look that bad for philly? Or did the board die? Well because the board died... The split thread has really hurt the numbers on here ams and pro mets alike. I don't think we have that many pro mets blogging in here. O well, lets do our best to keep it rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Wow does the storm look that bad for philly? Or did the board die? It's still a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Well because the board died... The split thread has really hurt the numbers on here ams and pro mets alike. I don't think we have that many pro mets blogging in here. O well, lets do our best to keep it rolling. thanks Irish I thought as much. Had to go to the nyc board for some analysis. Hope it picks up in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Wow does the storm look that bad for philly? Or did the board die? lol well the board is pretty dead, but this is a week out expect changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Perhaps not a popular post, but splitting the forum robbed PHL or both of some great analysis. When you're 6 days out, it's too hard to pinpoint a storm between PHL and NYC. Perhaps a day or two before, but not this far. I find myself going into NYC's thread to hear the analysis (of course still love hearing from you guys too --- but want us all to benefit!). Fact is, even a week out, seeing some of the solutions are exciting and help take away from my productivity at work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I was just thinking the same thing and am not a fan of the new split of the two regions. Especially, for mid-range potential. A little overdone IMO. Perhaps not a popular post, but splitting the forum robbed PHL or both of some great analysis. When you're 6 days out, it's too hard to pinpoint a storm between PHL and NYC. Perhaps a day or two before, but not this far. I find myself going into NYC's thread to hear the analysis (of course still love hearing from you guys too --- but want us all to benefit!). Fact is, even a week out, seeing some of the solutions are exciting and help take away from my productivity at work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I was just thinking the same thing and am not a fan of the new split of the two regions. Especially, for mid-range potential. A little overdone IMO. There are 8 million people living in NYC alone. There are 1.4 million living in Philadelphia. This doesn't even account for the difference between North Jersey and N and W of NYC versus N and W of Philadelphia. Fact is, splitting the forum is likely to yield at least 8 times less activity, analyis, etc. In all honesty, when you're this far out, the extra 8 opinions and analyses have credence for both regions. If I'm overstepping my bounds, I greatly apologize. This place has meant an awful lot to me (before I joined) and hoping all can get the most out of it. Cheers! (says BenchMarksTheSpot with his Iron Hill Brewery Growler...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 i agree with this. the board is too split up now. it really gets me that immature crybabies actually needed it to be split because they couldnt handle one area getting snow when the other didnt. Spare me "the climates are so different", i grew up in NY and have lived in PHL for the last ten years, and the climates are very similar. Perhaps not a popular post, but splitting the forum robbed PHL or both of some great analysis. When you're 6 days out, it's too hard to pinpoint a storm between PHL and NYC. Perhaps a day or two before, but not this far. I find myself going into NYC's thread to hear the analysis (of course still love hearing from you guys too --- but want us all to benefit!). Fact is, even a week out, seeing some of the solutions are exciting and help take away from my productivity at work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I feel the GFS is playing its games right now. This is also the range when models lose storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I think its better like this. It's sort of saddening when a storm comes and dumps 2 feet in NYC and we end up getting rain or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I was just thinking the same thing and am not a fan of the new split of the two regions. Especially, for mid-range potential. A little overdone IMO. a # of the NYC crowd was good for analysis but there was a ton of crap to sift through at the same time. if we had an earthlight/don s or two in this forum things would be a lot more active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I think its better like this. It's sort of saddening when a storm comes and dumps 2 feet in NYC and we end up getting rain or something. I don't even think a rain outcome is off the table. Lots of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 a # of the NYC crowd was good for analysis but there was a ton of crap to sift through at the same time. if we had an earthlight/don s or two in this forum things would be a lot more active. Hey guys, I don't want to keep addressing this, but it was agreed upon by many posters, moderators, and most importantly admin that the volume in the subforum was too large to have constructive threads. It looks like I am the only meteorologist besides the Mt. Holly guys in here. I'll do my best to try to keep things active and answer questions whenever possible. In the mean time, I highly encourage you guys to check out the threads in the main forum. I'll be posting out there a lot too and you may find answers to your questions there. Cheers! Adam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I don't even think a rain outcome is off the table. Lots of possibilities. I don't even think it's a low probability event at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lman Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Perhaps not a popular post, but splitting the forum robbed PHL or both of some great analysis. When you're 6 days out, it's too hard to pinpoint a storm between PHL and NYC. Perhaps a day or two before, but not this far. I find myself going into NYC's thread to hear the analysis (of course still love hearing from you guys too --- but want us all to benefit!). Fact is, even a week out, seeing some of the solutions are exciting and help take away from my productivity at work! Yes the NY forum is loaded with Mets and analysis. I've been there most of the day and I live in SE PA. Anyway this gets changed back? I remember Mike Gorse from Mt. holly was not really happy about this split yesterday. What was the reasoning for this change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 By the way guys, what is a Miller A and Miller B? Is it a rating system? I'm sort of a noob at some terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
56er Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 By the way guys, what is a Miller A and Miller B? Is it a rating system? I'm sort of a noob at some terms. Check out this thread: Couldn't be put any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Thanks man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Well, i wrote this up earlier.. before the 12z EURO..Enjoy: Alrite, i'm gonna do my best to keep this technically simple. Maybe people can even learn a thing or two! First, this far out, it's best to look at what the pattern might look at. TO look for the pattern, you have to look at the "teleconnectors such as AO, NAO, PNA, EPO etc.... First, the PNA, which will be positive, which is good, evident of a west coast ridge. next, we'll take a look at the AO: It's trending negative, which is good, not ideal, but not a go against you kind of factor.. next, the NAO: Trending from pos to negative/neutral. So what we have here is : ALL the teleconnectors are flipping. Rob always stress' that when this happens, watch out for a storm. In short, while not the upmost favorable blocking ( west based -NA0, establish -AO pattern) we've had snowstorms in this type of set up before. Certainly not last years patterm ( once in a lifetime pattern? haha, especially based on duration) ANyhow, let's take a look at some H5( h500) charts on the GFS and EURO.. first, lets compare the 6z GFS ( nice hit for us, compared to the 12z GFS which was OTS and why) 12z GFS 0z GFS 1st thing, notice the ridging out west. great start. Although slightly displaced west of where you would want it. 2nd, notice i've circled the PV in red, and notice the orientation between the the 2 runs. The 12z GFS ( top image) is orientated more west to east, and hence, flattens the flow ( shown in orange). Take a look at the 0z GFS (bottom image) and you'll see the PV more North South orientation, hence, allowing heigh heights to build on the east coast. In result, the trough/ shortwave in green is allowed to amplify more you get a "better" hit for us. Also, notice in the Blue and purple circles over the mid west, the difference in where the enrgy is. this helps amplify the pattern and a bigger storm. An earlier phase would cause the storm to go inland, so thats gonna come down to timing. 3rd off, i've circled our weak, but negative NAO , and in light blue, our 50/50 storm . Because the NAO is weak, this 50/50 low won't be held in for long. But hey, it's better than not having one at all.. Now the 0z GFS showing a hit , and the 12z OTS, it's better than the inland camp.. Thats the GFS... now lets see what happens when the northern disturbance gets involved earlier on the 0z EURO: 0z EURO: Notice in the top left panel, i've circled in black, the interaction between the 2 streams.... Watch what happens next frame. By the way, hard to say, because the intervals are in 24hr increments, so bear with me. 168 (24hrs later) Alrite, in green, i've circled the really negative trough and storm embedded in it.... really amp'd pattern that makes the low cut inland. notice in the top right panel, the low goes from the SW to being an inland runner. This is also very possible without an overpowering -NAO combination. However, this might be due to the euro's SW bias in holding energy back too long. The longer it stays back, the better chance the northern stream interacts earlier, hence the inland solution...and just as i was putting this blog out, the 12z EURO COMES IN LINE with last night's GFS... but we're about a week away, so nothing set in stone yet. SO all in all, teleconnectors are about 60/40 in favor for us on the east coast. they're flipping states all at the same time, so a storm seems inevitable, and the models have picked up the threat. Watch next weeks (tues) coastal system and see how it establishes our 50/50... If this is still here on sunday, i'll become more optimistic. Right now, im leaning towards an inland cutter, but i'm starting to sway towards maybe something nice... Don't expect the h5 low to cut off, this will be a fast hitter!! depending on where it goes. ENJOY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
56er Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Great write up thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Well, i wrote this up earlier.. before the 12z EURO..Enjoy: Alrite, i'm gonna do my best to keep this technically simple. Maybe people can even learn a thing or two! First, this far out, it's best to look at what the pattern might look at. TO look for the pattern, you have to look at the "teleconnectors such as AO, NAO, PNA, EPO etc.... First, the PNA, which will be positive, which is good, evident of a west coast ridge. next, we'll take a look at the AO: It's trending negative, which is good, not ideal, but not a go against you kind of factor.. next, the NAO: Trending from pos to negative/neutral. So what we have here is : ALL the teleconnectors are flipping. Rob always stress' that when this happens, watch out for a storm. In short, while not the upmost favorable blocking ( west based -NA0, establish -AO pattern) we've had snowstorms in this type of set up before. Certainly not last years patterm ( once in a lifetime pattern? haha, especially based on duration) ANyhow, let's take a look at some H5( h500) charts on the GFS and EURO.. first, lets compare the 6z GFS ( nice hit for us, compared to the 12z GFS which was OTS and why) 12z GFS 0z GFS 1st thing, notice the ridging out west. great start. Although slightly displaced west of where you would want it. 2nd, notice i've circled the PV in red, and notice the orientation between the the 2 runs. The 12z GFS ( top image) is orientated more west to east, and hence, flattens the flow ( shown in orange). Take a look at the 0z GFS (bottom image) and you'll see the PV more North South orientation, hence, allowing heigh heights to build on the east coast. In result, the trough/ shortwave in green is allowed to amplify more you get a "better" hit for us. Also, notice in the Blue and purple circles over the mid west, the difference in where the enrgy is. this helps amplify the pattern and a bigger storm. An earlier phase would cause the storm to go inland, so thats gonna come down to timing. 3rd off, i've circled our weak, but negative NAO , and in light blue, our 50/50 storm . Because the NAO is weak, this 50/50 low won't be held in for long. But hey, it's better than not having one at all.. Now the 0z GFS showing a hit , and the 12z OTS, it's better than the inland camp.. Thats the GFS... now lets see what happens when the northern disturbance gets involved earlier on the 0z EURO: 0z EURO: Notice in the top left panel, i've circled in black, the interaction between the 2 streams.... Watch what happens next frame. By the way, hard to say, because the intervals are in 24hr increments, so bear with me. 168 (24hrs later) Alrite, in green, i've circled the really negative trough and storm embedded in it.... really amp'd pattern that makes the low cut inland. notice in the top right panel, the low goes from the SW to being an inland runner. This is also very possible without an overpowering -NAO combination. However, this might be due to the euro's SW bias in holding energy back too long. The longer it stays back, the better chance the northern stream interacts earlier, hence the inland solution...and just as i was putting this blog out, the 12z EURO COMES IN LINE with last night's GFS... but we're about a week away, so nothing set in stone yet. SO all in all, teleconnectors are about 60/40 in favor for us on the east coast. they're flipping states all at the same time, so a storm seems inevitable, and the models have picked up the threat. Watch next weeks (tues) coastal system and see how it establishes our 50/50... If this is still here on sunday, i'll become more optimistic. Right now, im leaning towards an inland cutter, but i'm starting to sway towards maybe something nice... Don't expect the h5 low to cut off, this will be a fast hitter!! depending on where it goes. ENJOY! LWB in the hizzle!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Wow that was very insightful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 irishbri, that's a great post. The only qualm I have with it is not discussing the strength of the subtropical ridge, but it's a minor quibble. Good work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Well, i wrote this up earlier.. before the 12z EURO..Enjoy: Alrite, i'm gonna do my best to keep this technically simple. Maybe people can even learn a thing or two! First, this far out, it's best to look at what the pattern might look at. TO look for the pattern, you have to look at the "teleconnectors such as AO, NAO, PNA, EPO etc.... First, the PNA, which will be positive, which is good, evident of a west coast ridge. next, we'll take a look at the AO: It's trending negative, which is good, not ideal, but not a go against you kind of factor.. next, the NAO: Trending from pos to negative/neutral. So what we have here is : ALL the teleconnectors are flipping. Rob always stress' that when this happens, watch out for a storm. In short, while not the upmost favorable blocking ( west based -NA0, establish -AO pattern) we've had snowstorms in this type of set up before. Certainly not last years patterm ( once in a lifetime pattern? haha, especially based on duration) ANyhow, let's take a look at some H5( h500) charts on the GFS and EURO.. first, lets compare the 6z GFS ( nice hit for us, compared to the 12z GFS which was OTS and why) 12z GFS 0z GFS 1st thing, notice the ridging out west. great start. Although slightly displaced west of where you would want it. 2nd, notice i've circled the PV in red, and notice the orientation between the the 2 runs. The 12z GFS ( top image) is orientated more west to east, and hence, flattens the flow ( shown in orange). Take a look at the 0z GFS (bottom image) and you'll see the PV more North South orientation, hence, allowing heigh heights to build on the east coast. In result, the trough/ shortwave in green is allowed to amplify more you get a "better" hit for us. Also, notice in the Blue and purple circles over the mid west, the difference in where the enrgy is. this helps amplify the pattern and a bigger storm. An earlier phase would cause the storm to go inland, so thats gonna come down to timing. 3rd off, i've circled our weak, but negative NAO , and in light blue, our 50/50 storm . Because the NAO is weak, this 50/50 low won't be held in for long. But hey, it's better than not having one at all.. Now the 0z GFS showing a hit , and the 12z OTS, it's better than the inland camp.. Thats the GFS... now lets see what happens when the northern disturbance gets involved earlier on the 0z EURO: 0z EURO: Notice in the top left panel, i've circled in black, the interaction between the 2 streams.... Watch what happens next frame. By the way, hard to say, because the intervals are in 24hr increments, so bear with me. 168 (24hrs later) Alrite, in green, i've circled the really negative trough and storm embedded in it.... really amp'd pattern that makes the low cut inland. notice in the top right panel, the low goes from the SW to being an inland runner. This is also very possible without an overpowering -NAO combination. However, this might be due to the euro's SW bias in holding energy back too long. The longer it stays back, the better chance the northern stream interacts earlier, hence the inland solution...and just as i was putting this blog out, the 12z EURO COMES IN LINE with last night's GFS... but we're about a week away, so nothing set in stone yet. SO all in all, teleconnectors are about 60/40 in favor for us on the east coast. they're flipping states all at the same time, so a storm seems inevitable, and the models have picked up the threat. Watch next weeks (tues) coastal system and see how it establishes our 50/50... If this is still here on sunday, i'll become more optimistic. Right now, im leaning towards an inland cutter, but i'm starting to sway towards maybe something nice... Don't expect the h5 low to cut off, this will be a fast hitter!! depending on where it goes. ENJOY! thank you for this very nice and educational write up........when you refer to "rob"......who is that?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 one thing i noticed also as to why things on the gfs have trended less amplified. Notice on the 12z and 18z gfs to the areas that i circled. This piece of energy left behind seems like its causing the trof to de-amplify and broaden the base out. Now look at the 6z gfs here, notice the piece of energy is not there, which allows the trof to amplify and sharpen as opposed to being deamplified and broad as the 12z and 18z gfs runs had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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