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February 9-11 Potential


Harbourton

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Sorry i missed the PBP, i thought tombo was in here.. here..

1008 low in the gulf/over LA.. 138

144, 1008 low just north of LA, into SW AL...big precip field.. tn snowstorm..

150, 1004mb low splitting the central MS, GA border... big precip field.850's down to VA beach..

156 1004mb low over SC, light snows into PA...850's by lewis de..

162 sub 1000mb low east of lewis de ( maybe 994) mod snows into eastern/ SE PA to ttn into jersey .5" in 6hrs, snow!window.location =

168 990 over the Bm.. maybe slightly SE.. light snows in our area.. ny in the CCB.. SNE getting hammered

H5 never closes off, flow is too "fast" ... stilla nice hit for 1-95.. looks like .75" back towards lehigh valley??

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Quite honestly I have been looking at the guidance and I am not exactly sure what would support a south and east solution like we have been showing on the models for the most part & including the ensembles. Teleconnections are not really supportive of this....

variation with respect to phasing and or lack thereof

pure southern stream system aka GFS/Euro with huge PV to the north does in fact support a farther south solution when previous runs it had phasing with some northern stream energy

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GFS losing the storm. Typical in this range.

What concerns me is the Euro has trended East with most events this winter and it's in a good spot right now, meaning if it trends East over the next few runs, we may very well lose the storm. If the model biases from this season continue, an off-the-coast or OTS solution seems plausible at the moment. I'm not buying any solution though on this particular event/non-event....there are too many variables with the other 2 storms leading up to this one.

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variation with respect to phasing and or lack thereof

pure southern stream system aka GFS/Euro with huge PV to the north does in fact support a farther south solution when previous runs it had phasing with some northern stream energy

Yeah, but it's rare to get a southern stream shortwave make that much progress into a Bermuda high. Look at the shape of the isobars around 144 in the Euro. It just doesn't look "right." Not to say these can't be trending in the right direction, they very well could be, but I'm going to need a few more runs to come off my Nina climo forecast.

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variation with respect to phasing and or lack thereof

pure southern stream system aka GFS/Euro with huge PV to the north does in fact support a farther south solution when previous runs it had phasing with some northern stream energy

Not even referencing the phasing versus not phasing...

You have the GFS which is well south and east of the region and you have the ECM which actually does come up the coast but its still what i would consider south and east...

You have a positive AO which is not indicative of a really strong push of cold air..

You have a positive NAO which is also not really indicative of strong cold air across the region..

You have a PNA that is still slightly positive but heading negative ..again not indicative of a large trough along the east...

You pretty much have a negative EPO which is pretty much indicates a SE ridge would be in place...

You have pretty much the next two systems including this weekend and monday and tuesday pretty much cutting west and then moving ENE....so with the teleconnections the same i do not see an argument regardless of phasing versus non phasing of something to the south and east.. i think the models IMO are pretty much lost at this point and time...

If you are going to have a pattern change then I would suggest that we would have to have a large storm..cause that usually ushers in a pattern change...

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