chubbs Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro on e-wall is a textbook I-95 snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Sorry i missed the PBP, i thought tombo was in here.. here.. 1008 low in the gulf/over LA.. 138 144, 1008 low just north of LA, into SW AL...big precip field.. tn snowstorm.. 150, 1004mb low splitting the central MS, GA border... big precip field.850's down to VA beach.. 156 1004mb low over SC, light snows into PA...850's by lewis de.. 162 sub 1000mb low east of lewis de ( maybe 994) mod snows into eastern/ SE PA to ttn into jersey .5" in 6hrs, snow!window.location = 168 990 over the Bm.. maybe slightly SE.. light snows in our area.. ny in the CCB.. SNE getting hammered H5 never closes off, flow is too "fast" ... stilla nice hit for 1-95.. looks like .75" back towards lehigh valley?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 nice hit on euro after gfs says notta ... more 12z madness to come... good trends either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 heres the euro qpf for this storm dov 1.25-1.5 acy 1.4-1.5 phl 1-1.1 ttn 1 abe .75-1 hazleton .6-.7 avp .5-.6 lns .75-1 mdt .75-1 ukt .75-1 rdg .75-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 heres the euro qpf for this storm dov 1.25-1.5 acy 1.4-1.5 phl 1-1.1 ttn 1 abe .75-1 hazleton .6-.7 avp .5-.6 lns .75-1 mdt .75-1 ukt .75-1 Would PTW be around .75-1? All snow? Thanks, Tom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 heres the euro qpf for this storm dov 1.25-1.5 acy 1.4-1.5 phl 1-1.1 ttn 1 abe .75-1 hazleton .6-.7 avp .5-.6 lns .75-1 mdt .75-1 ukt .75-1 Thanks for the QPF totals even if it means there is the possibilty of shoveling another 10 inches lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Would PTW be around .75-1? All snow? Thanks, Tom! yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 heres the euro qpf for this storm dov 1.25-1.5 acy 1.4-1.5 phl 1-1.1 ttn 1 abe .75-1 hazleton .6-.7 avp .5-.6 lns .75-1 mdt .75-1 ukt .75-1 rdg .75-1 KMMU please for those of us on the northern edge of the Mt. Holly CWA, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 KMMU please for those of us on the northern edge of the Mt. Holly CWA, thanks. .75-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What about lower bucks? And also I think this storm could be really big. (Hopefully) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Where does the rain/snow line set up specifically on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What about lower bucks? And also I think this storm could be really big. (Hopefully) extrapolating from the other numbers, lower bucks is probably around 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Where does the rain/snow line set up specifically on this run? On this run, Cape May, maybe, then through Dover and south of Richmond at 162 before changing over to snow everywhere on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Thank you John for the answer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishinfever Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 anyone know what the euro ensembles look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 anyone know what the euro ensembles look like? A slower version of the GFS ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishinfever Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro looks to be big hit for all, see NY http://www.americanw...t/page__st__260 nice thing about that link, it serves as a good reminder as to why these forums were split up, in terms of the incessant bickering by some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Actually looks more like a miss to the east for alot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Actually looks more like a miss to the east for alot of people. Their are ver few scenarios which would give coastal sections a MECS and still give you a big thumping. Your ideal solution is not very popular in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Quite honestly I have been looking at the guidance and I am not exactly sure what would support a south and east solution like we have been showing on the models for the most part & including the ensembles. Teleconnections are not really supportive of this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Quite honestly I have been looking at the guidance and I am not exactly sure what would support a south and east solution like we have been showing on the models for the most part & including the ensembles. Teleconnections are not really supportive of this.... variation with respect to phasing and or lack thereof pure southern stream system aka GFS/Euro with huge PV to the north does in fact support a farther south solution when previous runs it had phasing with some northern stream energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS losing the storm. Typical in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 FWIW DGEX is south, but S MD to S NJ get a pretty nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS losing the storm. Typical in this range. What concerns me is the Euro has trended East with most events this winter and it's in a good spot right now, meaning if it trends East over the next few runs, we may very well lose the storm. If the model biases from this season continue, an off-the-coast or OTS solution seems plausible at the moment. I'm not buying any solution though on this particular event/non-event....there are too many variables with the other 2 storms leading up to this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Wait I thought this was trending to become a I-95 Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 variation with respect to phasing and or lack thereof pure southern stream system aka GFS/Euro with huge PV to the north does in fact support a farther south solution when previous runs it had phasing with some northern stream energy Yeah, but it's rare to get a southern stream shortwave make that much progress into a Bermuda high. Look at the shape of the isobars around 144 in the Euro. It just doesn't look "right." Not to say these can't be trending in the right direction, they very well could be, but I'm going to need a few more runs to come off my Nina climo forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 variation with respect to phasing and or lack thereof pure southern stream system aka GFS/Euro with huge PV to the north does in fact support a farther south solution when previous runs it had phasing with some northern stream energy Not even referencing the phasing versus not phasing... You have the GFS which is well south and east of the region and you have the ECM which actually does come up the coast but its still what i would consider south and east... You have a positive AO which is not indicative of a really strong push of cold air.. You have a positive NAO which is also not really indicative of strong cold air across the region.. You have a PNA that is still slightly positive but heading negative ..again not indicative of a large trough along the east... You pretty much have a negative EPO which is pretty much indicates a SE ridge would be in place... You have pretty much the next two systems including this weekend and monday and tuesday pretty much cutting west and then moving ENE....so with the teleconnections the same i do not see an argument regardless of phasing versus non phasing of something to the south and east.. i think the models IMO are pretty much lost at this point and time... If you are going to have a pattern change then I would suggest that we would have to have a large storm..cause that usually ushers in a pattern change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Anyone see the nogaps today from 12z? Looks damn good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Anyone see the nogaps today from 12z? Looks damn good to me. Sure and from there it also goes south and east..... Matter of fact 18 Z NOGAPS looks pretty much AKA GFS except it stays in the GOM longer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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