dale803 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 early week storm screws up the setup for late week monster,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 early week storm screws up the setup for late week monster,,, Difference is that the Euro doesn't bomb out the earlier low - and is less progressive with the pattern. In the NY forum, SnowGoose says trends favor the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 early week storm screws up the setup for late week monster,,, Think that feature may potentially be a good thing. Posted this already in the mid-atlantic forum but thought this would explain my reasoning. Of course I am waiting for a Met to shoot me down on this. 'Looking at the 00Z suite of the GFS and Euro Ops as well as their Ensemble means they are showing an east based block during this period. With the feature that moves through on Monday into Tuesday with the configuration of the blocking it allows it to escape. With this setup there is much that can go wrong for our area if you are looking for snow. I think what we may want to look for on future runs is if they start showing the block strengthening and becoming more west based. If we can get that, I think the Monday-Tuesday Feature becomes our 50/50 low and it's game on for a MEC for a good portion of the East Coast including pretty far south into the Carolinas. ' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 EURO shows a coastal hugger.. rain basically for everyone east of the apps in our regional thread area. No model is going to have a good handle on this until at least 72 hours before the event. Wouldn't worry too much about every 12 hour model run. But a coastal hugger is certainly an option in this event. On a personal note, I am hoping for a coastal hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS still nonchalantly showing a MECS for us and showing no signs of budging.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS is OTS on this run. But I expected some GFS runs like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS is OTS on this run. But I expected some GFS runs like this. Agreed. Not really a surprise but the 500mb looks really bad on this run also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 JB's nuclear bomb hype storm needs alot of work but good thing its only Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm not likeing the look of this at the moment. The orientation of that PV is so critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Long range GFS is terrible, after the cold air behind our departing coastal a massive SE ridge builds in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Long range GFS is terrible, after the cold air behind our departing coastal a massive SE ridge builds in. thats or upcoming torch before we get back to winter and a march to remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 gfs ens mean supports the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Why all the depressing comments about the gfs? Id rather see it a close miss now rather than a cutter. Liked that the PP was more dominant this run. Ggem looks to be coming in less amplified too which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 gfs ens mean supports the op link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Why all the depressing comments about the gfs? Id rather see it a close miss now rather than a cutter. Liked that the PP was more dominant this run. Ggem looks to be coming in less amplified too which is good. After showing a monster for several runs in a row, the GFS lost it's continuity. We need our system early next week to setup a favorable 50/50 block. That PV to be aligned in just the right position, and a system thats amplified enough to come up the coast. We can deal without the first feature if the other two fall in just right. When I look at the 500mb setup on the GFS, I just don't see any reason to get excited. The SE thread is now getting all excited over a possible 3-6". Bless there little hearts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 After showing a monster for several runs in a row, the GFS lost it's continuity. We need our system early next week to setup a favorable 50/50 block. That PV to be aligned in just the right position, and a system thats amplified enough to come up the coast. We can deal without the first feature if the other two fall in just right. When I look at the 500mb setup on the GFS, I just don't see any reason to get excited. The SE thread is now getting all excited over a possible 3-6". Bless there little hearts. How often does a model show continuity this far out? The next run could easily bring the storm back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 How often does a model show continuity this far out? The next run could easily bring the storm back. It probably will but I don't see how our region gets a major blow. if the system comes too far west, were in flooding trouble. If the system is too far east we won't get much QPF but most of us will stay all snow. Ideally we get a track similar to the 2/3 12z GFS with a track just inside the benchmark. Even with that, your talking 3-5 hrs of heavy snow and then its gone. Not my idea of a once labeled. "epic storm". I'm praying we can find a way to get good blocking out of the possible 50/50 and that we can somehow sqeeze high pressure into SE Canada. If that PV moves further north that might just happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It probably will but I don't see how our region gets a major blow. if the system comes too far west, were in flooding trouble. If the system is too far east we won't get much QPF but most of us will stay all snow. Ideally we get a track similar to the 2/3 12z GFS with a track just inside the benchmark. Even with that, your talking 3-5 hrs of heavy snow and then its gone. Not my idea of a once labeled. "epic storm". I'm praying we can find a way to get good blocking out of the possible 50/50 and that we can somehow sqeeze high pressure into SE Canada. If that PV moves further north that might just happen. It has shown more blocking/PV phasing which is a good sign. You are too negative for this far out, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It has shown more blocking/PV phasing which is a good sign. You are too negative for this far out, IMO. Well in that regards the run was an improvement. I would love to see what this run would have looked like had the trough come in more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It has shown more blocking/PV phasing which is a good sign. You are too negative for this far out, IMO. no its not negativity, its called looking at the model and picking out the facts... There are things going for the storm and there are a lot of things going against it for this to be a major snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 no its not negativity, its called looking at the model and picking out the facts... There are things going for the storm and there are a lot of things going against it for this to be a major snowstorm It was negativity because he seemed to be discounting the threat completely without looking at the things that are in our favor. Even he just said I was right there are some good signs out of this run. To say "I'm not optimistic at THIS time" would be reasonable, but my opinion differs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Any word on the GGEM? Did it go west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It was negativity because he seemed to be discounting the threat completely without looking at the things that are in our favor. Even he just said I was right there are some good signs out of this run. To say "I'm not optimistic at THIS time" would be reasonable, but my opinion differs. Yes, I did say that a few things happened good this run but....this would have to be the start of a major shift all together and I jus't don't see that happening. Everything needs to go exactly right just for use to squeek out a few hours of heavy snow. We need lots of things to change if this is going to be a MECS for anyone other than NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Any word on the GGEM? Did it go west? no its the same track as last night, maybe a little colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yes, I did say that a few things happened good this run but....this would have to be the start of a major shift all together and I jus't don't see that happening. Everything needs to go exactly right just for use to squeek out a few hours of heavy snow. We need lots of things to change if this is going to be a MECS for anyone other than NE. Even a few hours of snow can give us 6+ inches depending on rates. The GFS hits were fast moving but heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I don't have a link to the GGEM but I've been told its more amplified than the GFS and futher north with the PV. Might be a good run for us. The SE thread sure didn't like it. The Euro should shed some light here in the next few minutes and let us know if we are about to see a wholesale change in the overal synoptics or if the GFS is likely on crack. The flow aloft is super fast. I think we need a more amplified solution in order to make this work or its probably a coastal brush or OTS. We need the perfect positioning of the PV which allows a more amplified solution to come up the coast. If that happens we can get a fast moving 12"+ snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Even a few hours of snow can give us 6+ inches depending on rates. The GFS hits were fast moving but heavy snow. Miller A's only come about a few times per winter, if that, and very often they give the SE snow and then head OTS (see 2/4 12z GFS Run). We have a large potential here for a MECS and I would hate to waste it on 6" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Huge hit on the euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Miller A's only come about a few times per winter, if that, and very often they give the SE snow and then head OTS (see 2/4 12z GFS Run). We have a large potential here for a MECS and I would hate to waste it on 6" of snow. Euro looks to be big hit for all, see NY http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/12429-febuary-9-11-threat/page__st__260 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro is a mix to rain in South Jersey and Lower Del (generally AC to Dover on south)...to be fair, not a HUGE HIT for everyone verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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