famartin Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 You should open a Halo Farm out there, but with a twist: actually have animals in your animal pen. You'd make millions. I'm just old enough to have a vague memory from when they DID have live animals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 While the original thinking of this coming far enough N & W to give the cities precipitation problems admittedly failed ...the thinking that this would come further N & W has indeed taken place.... This was back on the 8th... And as you can see as of tonight this was never originally suppose to bring locations such as these : 9 PM Light snow in Dover DE, Easton MD and Stevensville MD... 9:30 PM Light snow and a light dusting so far. Radar looks spotty. Maybe a half inch out of this. (cape May point NJ) 10:00 PM Atlantic City Light Snow 10:30 Lewes DE a Dusting 10:45 PM KPHL Light snow 1 AM ACY light snow! Same run 66 hrs http://beta.wxcaster...THKPRP_66HR.gif Tonight we look like this... http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06006.gif Indeed further to the N & W then what was indicated..... in the short range under 36-48 hrs... So the extent of the N & W thinking was incorrect but the thought of it coming more N & W in the short term then what was modeled was indeed very much the correct thought ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Going by the GFS, yes. In fact when the GFS was championed earlier I had thought to point out that the GFS was far too suppressed with it. Once the EC jumped to the more suppressed track it was superior than the GFS for just about every run, based on what has fallen tonight... I think there might've been one run where the EC gave up on snow in NJ completely, but just one run. Just about all the other EC runs had a dusting in S NJ as has occurred. Do note that since the flurries at PHL were not measurable, any model that showed measurable in PHL was overdone. While the original thinking of this coming far enough N & W to give the cities precipitation problems admittedly failed ...the thinking that this would come further N & W has indeed taken place.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 I live in Elko, what else do I have to do? how would you describe the winters you've experienced out there? i see the ave annual snowfall is 38" but annual total precip in 9.5" you are in the middle of friggin nowhere........ and if there was any doubt, google street view maps drives the point home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Going by the GFS, yes. In fact when the GFS was championed earlier I had thought to point out that the GFS was far too suppressed with it. Once the EC jumped to the more suppressed track it was superior than the GFS for just about every run, based on what has fallen tonight... I think there might've been one run where the EC gave up on snow in NJ completely, but just one run. Just about all the other EC runs had a dusting in S NJ as has occurred. Do note that since the flurries at PHL were not measurable, any model that showed measurable in PHL was overdone. Actually i am talking several days back that I mentioned this coming more N & W ..oh I would say about 72 hrs ago (at least) ... I am looking at last nights ECM QPF for 30 hrs and it just barely brings the QPF into SE NJ...Barely....and i have it every 6 hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fireman5214 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Actually i am talking several days back that I mentioned this coming more N & W ..oh I would say about 72 hrs ago (at least) ... I am looking at last nights ECM QPF for 30 hrs and it just barely brings the QPF into SE NJ...Barely....and i have it every 6 hrs.. I think it was more then 72 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 how would you describe the winters you've experienced out there? Cold. Lots of little events (less than 4"). A few moderate events (4-8"). No big events (greater than 8"). i see the ave annual snowfall is 38" but annual total precip in 9.5" you are in the middle of friggin nowhere........ and if there was any doubt, google street view maps drives the point home. Yes, this is the middle of nowhere... I'm just glad its the center of nowhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Actually i am talking several days back that I mentioned this coming more N & W ..oh I would say about 72 hrs ago (at least) ... I am looking at last nights ECM QPF for 30 hrs and it just barely brings the QPF into SE NJ...Barely....and i have it every 6 hrs.. Dude... lets be real, you thought this was coming much further NW and it didn't. The end. You busted. Accept and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Dude... lets be real, you thought this was coming much further NW and it didn't. The end. You busted. Accept and move on. I am going to go out on a limb here with this and say that since the NOGAPS at 138 hrs has actually trended west from previous runs that this is going to be coming more west & Adams thoughts are very much IMO going to be realized by the time this is in short range.... Fact above is what was said.... So the backing Adams thoughts up is what ended up wrong... My own thoughts ....I would not call that a bust by any means...the extent of thinking that it would be further northwest to bring precip problems to the cities was wrong but the further N & W call long before the models showed it was 100 % correct and there is no doubt about that..... Now..by all means I am not saying that we are going to get a storm out of this system..Most likely scenario is this will slide out to the south and the east but folks in the southern areas perhaps MD into SNJ will have to keep an eye on this system. FEB 8th 11:52 AM Majority of people were singing the tune that this was going to be well south and east and not bring any QPF into the region...that tune was wrong.... You are never going to be 100 % correct in a forecast 72 hrs + out but calling the NW trend was correct....and well ahead of the guidance.....my last post because my words are above....and my specific thoughts have been on my blog for days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Majority of people were singing the tune that this was going to be well south and east and not bring any QPF into the region...that tune was wrong.... Who's the majority of people? Anyone who said there'd be no measurable at PHL itself was correct, FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foggy Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Streets and everything covered. 1" Bethany Beach, DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desnowlover Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Started at about 8 last night had a little lull ended around 2 very light .05" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Dusting overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Light Virga here late last night 5 days ago the wxsim program had 8" of snow - this clearly = Wxsim fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Actually i am talking several days back that I mentioned this coming more N & W ..oh I would say about 72 hrs ago (at least) ... I am looking at last nights ECM QPF for 30 hrs and it just barely brings the QPF into SE NJ...Barely....and i have it every 6 hrs.. Yes but you said north and west of the what the models were depicting at that moment of which the Euro was still showing a moderate hit to PHL south and east. You also said that you agreed with AMPsu when he suggested mixing would be an issue as well implying a far more north and west of PHL impact. Also to note this was purely WAA and not a coastal so please don't pound your chest, bc you were completely wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Light Virga here late last night 5 days ago the wxsim program had 8" of snow - this clearly = Wxsim fail well from what you have said. The wxism takes the info from the gfs and nam and incorporates that into it. The gfs was showing that amount of snow at one time. Basically, it was models failed which caused wxism to fail lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Yes but you said north and west of the what the models were depicting at that moment of which the Euro was still showing a moderate hit to PHL south and east. You also said that you agreed with AMPsu when he suggested mixing would be an issue as well implying a far more north and west of PHL impact. Also to note this was purely WAA and not a coastal so please don't pound your chest, bc you were completely wrong! Hi, I was completely wrong last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 This just goes to show why we should never hug the op run of the NOGAPS. The NOGAPS ensembles are a far better forecasting tool imo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Drove home from the airport at 11:30 last night. I didn't notice any snow at PHL but there was a covering in Delaware. There were multiple accidents on I-95 including a truck jacknife near Newark which closed the road for over an hour. Took me 3-hr to get home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 Hi, I was completely wrong last week Maybe, but you never sounded as if you were very confident unlike some others. Can't win em all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 well from what you have said. The wxism takes the info from the gfs and nam and incorporates that into it. The gfs was showing that amount of snow at one time. Basically, it was models failed which caused wxism to fail lol. who failed more...the models or atown...there was a lot of fail with this "storm." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 10, 2011 Share Posted February 10, 2011 who failed more...the models or atown...there was a lot of fail with this "storm." Don't feed the troll anymore then we already have guys. He disappeared when he got trashed for hugging the NOGAPS, came back to pound his chest even though he was dead wrong, along with the NOGAPS, and now he'll disappear again now that nobody is agreeing with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fireman5214 Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 ok now you have gotten me to reply, im not afraid to voice my opinion, new or not.... i am not new at other forums. FIRST he was no model hugging the NOGAPS... plainly stating that every model was south and east of the NOGAPS.. he said those models would trend northwest of the NOGAPS. --- what happened? oh thats right they trended northwest of the nogaps, not by much but a noticeable distance. READ ALL of the post, not just "what you want too". He has not dissapeared, he has had family in the hospital off and on this week, so get your story straight before starting rumors. Just like the media. He will return and not back down and I have 100% backing with him. If you are so good, put your money where your mouth is and come join his forum, maybe you will understand him better or better yet learn something. Do yourself a favor, research the bias of the nogaps, search and see if HPC uses it (yes) and see what they say about it. I know they just used it on a past storm..... Don't feed the troll anymore then we already have guys. He disappeared when he got trashed for hugging the NOGAPS, came back to pound his chest even though he was dead wrong, along with the NOGAPS, and now he'll disappear again now that nobody is agreeing with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 to this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 ok now you have gotten me to reply, im not afraid to voice my opinion, new or not.... i am not new at other forums. FIRST he was no model hugging the NOGAPS... plainly stating that every model was south and east of the NOGAPS.. he said those models would trend northwest of the NOGAPS. --- what happened? oh thats right they trended northwest of the nogaps, not by much but a noticeable distance. READ ALL of the post, not just "what you want too". He has not dissapeared, he has had family in the hospital off and on this week, so get your story straight before starting rumors. Just like the media. He will return and not back down and I have 100% backing with him. If you are so good, put your money where your mouth is and come join his forum, maybe you will understand him better or better yet learn something. Do yourself a favor, research the bias of the nogaps, search and see if HPC uses it (yes) and see what they say about it. I know they just used it on a past storm..... I bet this is Atown's secret account Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 It is funny how fireman5214 was just on, he left, and guess who shows up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 It is funny how fireman5214 was just on, he left, and guess who shows up.... If you go on his blog he's got a huge spiel about this. Even quoted people from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Sorry about your wife's medical issues, but you do need to stop with the NOGAPS crap. No one cares anymore. If you want to let people, who don't look at models, know what it shows, that's fine. But hugging it in the winter, is damn near insane. I know that no one cares anymore but if any one knows anything about me I am a stickler for factual information. I hate wishcasting..I hate bittercasting and i hate hype casting...I hate the fact that people believe something so strongly such as the NOGAPS is not part of guidance when that is absolutely not true as the above by HPC shows and i posted something in the past when they referenced it.. I do not use the model to make a forecast map i used a blended version of all the guidance which is basically what happens with HPC.... I do not like being called out on something by people that have no clue what they are talking about. Whether its because they want to light a fire under some ones skin or not. If folks think that someones thoughts at 138 hours out are someones finalized thoughts then they have no clue on how one forecasts the weather. I have seen HPC for discussion on discussion because of continuity in the LR stick to showing a snowstorm despite what the models show or suggest until they have no choice but to abandon that thinking. I got called out for wishcasting because of thoughts at 138 hrs out that ended up being wrong but then those same people that called out on that fail to realize that in the end it did come further north and west with the precipitation shield and low pressure and that it was not until under the 48 hr term period that the main guidance picked up on this.. That is the facts...and the only model to not ever show a hit on that storm was the NOGAPS...so i guess you could say in this particular storm it outperformed the rest.... So people need to really take a look at what happened in the end compared to what was shown at the medium range....like i said i have nothing to hide...i bring it straight forward ... PS thank you about the comments towards the wife.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Time to get a mod in here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Ok so we're on page 37 of a thread dedicated to a snow storm that didn't even happen, and if it did happen would have ended over 24 hours ago? yeah this is totally normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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