famartin Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 OK everyone, I think this one is pronounceable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 0Z EC is even more suppressed. i dunno if you can even call what the euro has as a storm. Its a broad mangled area of low pressure...congrats ga and hse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 i dunno if you can even call what the euro has as a storm. Its a broad mangled area of low pressure...congrats ga and hse? Congrats GFS!! IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The NAM is trying as hard as it can to give us a storm. You can see the S/W trying to dig and amplify the trough at hr 30 but the PV is just too supressive. Hr 36 even more so, but the PV is the new "Dr. No". At hr 42, the PV finaly begins to take on more of a SW/NE axis and allows heights to continue to rise ever so slightly. By hr 48, the storm is making its closest approach to our area, and heights are still rising along the coast but its too little too late. Hr 54, the trough really amplifies, but its already well past us. Oh well on this one, NAM gets an A for effort though, that PV just keeps punching us in the nose. 12z NAM hr 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Its more suppressed than the 0Z run was. Time to give up, me thinks. The NAM is trying as hard as it can to give us a storm. You can see the S/W trying to dig and amplify the trough at hr 30 but the PV is just too supressive. Hr 36 even more so, but the PV is the new "Dr. No". At hr 42, the PV finaly begins to take on more of a SW/NE axis and allows heights to continue to rise ever so slightly. By hr 48, the storm is making its closest approach to our area, and heights are still rising along the coast but its too little too late. Hr 54, the trough really amplifies, but its already well past us. Oh well on this one, NAM gets an A for effort though, that PV just keeps punching us in the nose. 12z NAM hr 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Its more suppressed than the 0Z run was. Time to give up, me thinks. Oh I agree, besides a few clouds and perhaps a flurry or two at the beeches, this storm is beyond dead for our region. I just wanted to point out how the NAM is trying to build something, but the PV is just too dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Guess we should give the NAM a little credit... the GFS now brings the snow up about as far as the latest NAM does. Congrats southern DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Am I seeing things, or is the system at day 4 just missing the phase with the PV at hr 96 on the new GFS? hr 90 hr 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Am I seeing things, or is the system at day 4 just missing the phase with the PV at hr 96 on the new GFS? hr 90 hr 96 Looks like it. At least the GFS is showing a nice system off the coast now, rather than a weak wave its been showing the last 4 days. Maybe we still got some time. Dec 19 likee? When it finally phases in the PV 2 days before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Looks like it. At least the GFS is showing a nice system off the coast now, rather than a weak wave its been showing the last 4 days. Maybe we still got some time. Dec 19 likee? When it finally phases in the PV 2 days before the storm. This is a different storm. The Thursday storm is weak and shredded out. This one is Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 This is a different storm. The Tursday storm is weak and shredded out. This one is Saturday. I think everyone is well aware of that lol at least I would hope so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Guess we should give the NAM a little credit... the GFS now brings the snow up about as far as the latest NAM does. Congrats southern DE Yeah, wouldn't take much for some light snow up here - that's about the most we can expect right now. Hopefully that 2nd storm can phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Interesting to note that 7/12 12z gfs ensembles bring the 0.1 line through south or central Jersey at 48 hours now..with an 8th and 9th member up to cape May County...thats a pretty large jump. 12z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Interesting to note that 7/12 12z gfs ensembles bring the 0.1 line through south or central Jersey at 48 hours now..with an 8th and 9th member up to cape May County...thats a pretty large jump. 12Z mean (top) and 0Z (bottom). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Wes says don't rely on the GEFS in this time range Carolinewx, I've cautioned about using the GEFS precipitation forecasts when you get inside of 72 hrs as the low resolution srpeads the precipitation out allowing the precipitation to come north farther than you'd expect based on the suppressed surface low track that the members are showing. You'd be wiser to look at the 09Z SREF members or when they come out the 15Z sref. The 09Z were quite suppressed. We still have a chance at a dusting but I'd be surprised if we got more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 12Z EC came north too... 0.01" line across S NJ. 0.10" line is still south of OC MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Wes says don't rely on the GEFS in this time range If thats the case, then 15z srefs want no part of this north trend: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 12Z EC came north too... 0.01" line across S NJ. 0.10" line is still south of OC MD. it also brings 50-60 degree temps next thursday and friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 i can't believe the JB nuclear blizzard bomb is stil being tracked. 12z GFS brings the 60 mark in on 19th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 i can't believe the JB nuclear blizzard bomb is stil being tracked. 12z GFS brings the 60 mark in on 19th? It's more like a book of wet matches, but yeah, it's still being tracked. Bring on the 60's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 i can't believe the JB nuclear blizzard bomb is stil being tracked. Someone in the Mt. Holly CWA might get a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 it also brings 50-60 degree temps next thursday and friday Gotta melt that glacier... Finally had the first measurable snow here in almost a month. A whole 0.1" today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Gotta melt that glacier... Finally had the first measurable snow here in almost a month. A whole 0.1" today. Looks like things should change out that way about the 16th-17th! Pow for me please in Utah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Wes says don't rely on the GEFS in this time range I was wondering if the lower resolution could be giving a false impression here. There really isn't anywhere crazy to trend with this setup being the way it is, but the GEFS members are showing more of a surface low reflection on the SE coast which I'd believe plays into there being more qpf further north on the 12z set. I think this can still trend to be a nice powdery light snow event for our south NJ brothers, but that would probably be the limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 it also brings 50-60 degree temps next thursday and friday Yes euro is really great from 9 - 10 days like it was with this big storm we were getting this Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yes euro is really great from 9 - 10 days like it was with this big storm we were getting this Thursday. im not saying i believe it, just posting what it shows...it will get warm though...nws has 50 next tuesday for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 im not saying i believe it, just posting what it shows...it will get warm though...nws has 50 next tuesday for the region. No doubt. It's just a matter of how warm and how long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Why not keep tracking the storm and the one right behind it? If it does get near 50, there won't be chances for a week or two. Plus, there's always the outside chance of a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Why not keep tracking the storm and the one right behind it? If it does get near 50, there won't be chances for a week or two. Plus, there's always the outside chance of a surprise. what storm behind this one? The one that is shown like 700 miles off the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 what storm behind this one? The one that is shown like 700 miles off the coast? Well yeah, if its only 300 miles off the coast instead of 700, Matt might get some virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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