tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 TOMBO, do u know what i can do to become not 5 posted? i only have 1 more post today.... stop the imby questions. Also, when you post make them sound posts with good reasoning and informative. not, "what does it show for the jersey shore" " when do the models come out" "what are the chances we get snow on the jersey shore"...etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 NAM tryingg so hard. Still don't think this thing is off the table for a nice little event. Not a huge noreaster, but we still have a few days to go with this one guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 NAM tryingg so hard. Still don't think this thing is off the table for a nice little event. Not a huge noreaster, but we still have a few days to go with this one guys. New NAM is starting to key in on the transfer of energy the GFS shows... still has a blending of the two lows instead of the complete separation the GFS has, but I wonder if its just gonna end up like the GFS in the end, maybe a tad further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 LOLLLLLLLL. Yeah that's funny, because 1) Why is he asking Tombo, who isn't a mod and has no power over it, and 2) Why is he wasting one of his 5 posts on this subject? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I can not garantee that i will not b**ch this year, its almost inevitable for me to b**ch at some point, so Poll ahead. I will try not to disappoint yous. It can't get much worse than last year's insanely hot and insanely dry summer. This summer should be amazing in comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 GFS is not even close to anything for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 GFS says, "What storm were you tracking for the past six days? because it's completely gone now!" (Watery grave in the GOM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 GFS is not even close to anything for the area. In comparing the 2 at h5, it looks like the differences are in the pv handling. The gfs runs the pv out ahead of the energy just shearing it creating a flat flow. While the nam is trying to phase it into the energy the energy a little rising the hgts along the ec....fwiw the 12z euro looks like the nam, maybe not as robust, brings precip to dc and lower del. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 GFS says, "What storm were you tracking for the past six days? because it's completely gone now!" (Watery grave in the GOM) It's been completley gone now for like 2 days haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I'm not ready to throw this threat away until I see the NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I'm not ready to throw this threat away until I see the NOGAPS. +1000000000 You don't get as many 0's because I'm running out of money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I'm not ready to throw this threat away until I see the NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I'm not ready to throw this threat away until I see the NOGAPS. Blehhhhhhhh!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 In comparing the 2 at h5, it looks like the differences are in the pv handling. The gfs runs the pv out ahead of the energy just shearing it creating a flat flow. While the nam is trying to phase it into the energy the energy a little rising the hgts along the ec....fwiw the 12z euro looks like the nam, maybe not as robust, brings precip to dc and lower del. Agree also it looks like the PV on the GFS is much more elongated than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 alright...im going to use my last post of the night asking this one question....everybody knows that this threat is basically close to 0 at this point (obviously) but people on this thread are saying "the nails are not YET hammered into the coffin". What would it take for the body to come back alive out of the coffin, so to speak or for the last nail to be hammered into the coffin making it official...thanks for the always great input and analysis guys...TREND NORTH AND WEST.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yeah that's funny, because 1) Why is he asking Tombo, who isn't a mod and has no power over it, and 2) Why is he wasting one of his 5 posts on this subject? If they were to add another mod to the forum, though, Tom would get my vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 alright...im going to use my last post of the night asking this one question....everybody knows that this threat is basically close to 0 at this point (obviously) but people on this thread are saying "the nails are not YET hammered into the coffin". What would it take for the body to come back alive out of the coffin, so to speak or for the last nail to be hammered into the coffin making it official...thanks for the always great input and analysis guys...TREND NORTH AND WEST.. There is next 0 chance of a coastal low, but there is a chance for overrunning precip per the NAM and obv it's better the further south and east you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 48hr Australian FWIW (its weight in gold): Takes a low off the SE coast at hr 144, let the northwest trend commence: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 48hr Australian FWIW (its weight in gold): Just when I thought I'd seen it all on this board.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 you must promise to stop posting forever.. then it will come back That's just plain rude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duality Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 That's just plain rude! I'm only trying to help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Surprised no mentioned 0Z NAM, hr 60 brings light precip upto south Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Surprised no mentioned 0Z NAM, hr 60 brings light precip upto south Jersey. Yea this thing just keeps on creeping north run after run of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yea this thing just keeps on creeping north run after run of the NAM. I'll start to get interested when the GFS starts to do likewise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I'll start to get interested when the GFS starts to do likewise. I give up on this event, the 12z ensembles really fooled me. Perhaps it is best to trust the higher resolution of the OP rather than go with the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Y I'll start to get interested when the GFS starts to do likewise. Yea probably just the NAM up to its usual crap outside of 60 hours. GFS is just not budging at all. Actually damn impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Y Yea probably just the NAM up to its usual crap outside of 60 hours. GFS is just not budging at all. Actually damn impressive. The way things go NW, I wouldn't be surprised if the NAM is right - but the coastal idea seems to be over. Maybe some overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 New GFS ensembles went a bit south.. (12Z top, 0Z bottom): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Y Yea probably just the NAM up to its usual crap outside of 60 hours. after jan 26-27, i dont trust the nam beyond initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 0Z EC is even more suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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