Snowtrain Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Ehhh, it actually wasn't that far fetched to think this was going to be something with the big high dropping down out of Canada creating a lot of baroclinicity. It's one of the perils of trying to make medium range forecasts (I know my company wasn't the only private outfit starting to chirp late last week - and people better than me here like Don were on board with the pattern). Now, if you are talking about targeting the big cities 8 days out, sure, then I agree. But this storm had a lot of potential that is going to go untapped. I agree there, but moreso I was referring to using "storm of the century" monickers and such over a week out. Yes there was an abundant potential, but at the same time there was and always is so much variablitly in the medium range as you obviusly know. Furthermore, the local mets which are notoriously slow in playing up events were more than chirping as well. It was just very odd to me to see all of these media outlets going bananas 7-8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Ehhh, it actually wasn't that far fetched to think this was going to be something with the big high dropping down out of Canada creating a lot of baroclinicity. It's one of the perils of trying to make medium range forecasts (I know my company wasn't the only private outfit starting to chirp late last week - and people better than me here like Don were on board with the pattern). Now, if you are talking about targeting the big cities 8 days out, sure, then I agree. But this storm had a lot of potential that is going to go untapped. Also not sure who you work for, but assuming your services are contracted privately, I don't see anything wrong with advising paying clients that, "hey we need to keep an eye on this timeframe". b/c your not offering this to the public like accuweather and the local media outlets who need to use discretion until things are more certain to avoid Public hysteria, not ot mention the backlash they recieve from busted snow forecasts (aka John Bolaris) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I agree there, but moreso I was referring to using "storm of the century" monickers and such over a week out. Yes there was an abundant potential, but at the same time there was and always is so much variablitly in the medium range as you obviusly know. Furthermore, the local mets which are notoriously slow in playing up events were more than chirping as well. It was just very odd to me to see all of these media outlets going bananas 7-8 days out. Can you completely blame them the way the pattern has been? It seemed like almost every threat worked out into some kind of event during January, whether it was a HECS or just a run-of-the-mill snow event. Of course, that pattern had to end some time... with the last two events being mainly ice and rain, they may have been the hint of things to come. Regardless, the pattern for the 5 weeks from late December through late January was epic... essentially just like the five weeks from late January through late February in 2010 around Trenton, with similar amounts of snow (both just above 40"), an ~8" storm, a ~10" storm, and a ~16" storm, with some smaller events thrown in for good measure. I can only hope that should I manage to get back home eventually (permanently), that I'll get blessed with something similar eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Can you completely blame them the way the pattern has been? It seemed like almost every threat worked out into some kind of event during January, whether it was a HECS or just a run-of-the-mill snow event. Of course, that pattern had to end some time... with the last two events being mainly ice and rain, they may have been the hint of things to come. Regardless, the pattern for the 5 weeks from late December through late January was epic... essentially just like the five weeks from late January through late February in 2010 around Trenton, with similar amounts of snow (both just above 40"), an ~8" storm, a ~10" storm, and a ~16" storm, with some smaller events thrown in for good measure. I can only hope that should I manage to get back home eventually (permanently), that I'll get blessed with something similar eventually. In regards to public media outlets, I think that they should wait until threats are more certain for a number of reasons like I mentioned before. It's the same way Mt Holly treats their forecasts and discussions. They absolutley have to use extreme caution when trumpetting major events b/c of the public impacts and I think they could have held off until maybe 4 or 5 days out about mentioning a threat or at least comparing it to historic storms of the past, in which case they wouldn't have b/c that's when the models lost the storm. That's all I am saying and maybe I am being to critical in thinking that and I realize thay they are in the "Headline" biz so I guess from time to time hype is a good thing for the bottom line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 In regards to public media outlets, I think that they should wait until threats are more certain for a number of reasons like I mentioned before. It's the same way Mt Holly treats their forecasts and discussions. They absolutley have to use extreme caution when trumpetting major events b/c of the public impacts and I think they could have held off until maybe 4 or 5 days out about mentioning a threat or at least comparing it to historic storms of the past, in which case they wouldn't have b/c that's when the models lost the storm. That's all I am saying and maybe I am being to critical in thinking that and I realize thay they are in the "Headline" biz so I guess from time to time hype is a good thing for the bottom line. I agree, I'm not saying you are wrong. I'm just saying that given recent events, its not completely crazy to get so excited. Though of course, the pattern had to end some time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I agree, I'm not saying you are wrong. I'm just saying that given recent events, its not completely crazy to get so excited. Though of course, the pattern had to end some time... unfortunately . I see your in NV, on a side note I am headitng to Park City on the 22nd any clue as to the west coast starting to get in on some good ole fashioned Pacific madness. I'd love a few pow days Maybe a PM to keep this from clogging this thread, much appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 unfortunately . I see your in NV, on a side note I am headitng to Park City on the 22nd any clue as to the west coast starting to get in on some good ole fashioned Pacific madness. I'd love a few pow days Maybe a PM to keep this from clogging this thread, much appreciated! I'll just say "hopefully" for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 sorry guys for not doing the euro updates, just don't see going out of my way staying up late or putting a hold on work for a little for an event that is about as dead as rays brown front yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 sorry guys for not doing the euro updates, just don't see going out of my way staying up late or putting a hold on work for a little for an event that is about as dead as rays brown front yard. I was starting to wonder if you had abandoned us for the NYC forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I was starting to wonder if you had abandoned us for the NYC forum Lol i honestly havent even looked at any computer models till i just peaked at the euro...The pattern is blah the next week or 2, need the nao to go negative for some increase snow threats. Then your fighting the march sun angle (mikehobbyist will be happy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Lol i honestly havent even looked at any computer models till i just peaked at the euro...The pattern is blah the next week or 2, need the nao to go negative for some increase snow threats. Then your fighting the march sun angle (mikehobbyist will be happy) I agree, tombo. Rest up until something more promising looms near. Thanks for all of you PBP during the events so far this winter season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I think I'm going to take the next week or so off from model watching and see what heppens. Hopefully the models are as wrong about 7 days from now as they were 7 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 sorry guys for not doing the euro updates, just don't see going out of my way staying up late or putting a hold on work for a little for an event that is about as dead as rays brown front yard. No point running the 0z or 12z Tombo until another threat or pattern change emerges. Actually, given the Nina conditions this Fall, I though you'd get a chance to catch up on your sleep this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Just asking, is the trough here going - tilt? looks like it to me but what do I know. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I'm going to keep watching the end of week threat. I've been burned giving up before at this point. I just don't have my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Just asking, is the trough here going - tilt? looks like it to me but what do I know. http://www.nws.noaa....age=wv&hours=24 yes and it is modeled to as well. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_012m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 No point running the 0z or 12z Tombo until another threat or pattern change emerges. Actually, given the Nina conditions this Fall, I though you'd get a chance to catch up on your sleep this year. yea seriously, i thought this year was going to be very lackluster, boy were we proven wrong lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 hr 36, its gone way off to the northeast. Something fishy going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I agree, tombo. Rest up until something more promising looms near. Thanks for all of you PBP during the events so far this winter season! Its been a lot of fun this year, hopefully we get one more shot in late ferbuary or march to close winter out....I just hope this summer this forum doesn't become non existent to the pt where we have like a post per day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 hr 36, its gone way off to the northeast. Something fishy going on. seriously? or are u just giving us some false hope...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 hr 36, its gone way off to the northeast. Something fishy going on. I will say that the S/W is hanging back a bit more and the PV is not elongated as much at hr 54. It will prob bring the WAA (overrunning) further north this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Its been a lot of fun this year, hopefully we get one more shot in late ferbuary or march to close winter out....I just hope this summer this forum doesn't become non existent to the pt where we have like a post per day lol Unless we have a complete lack of thunderstorms, Lee will be posting daily telling us how he got ripped off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 seriously? or are u just giving us some false hope...? something happened with the NAM, when I first clicked on it at hr 30 it looked way different, but when i went back in and looked again, it was fixed, weird. It showed a really sharp S/W with no surface reflection over the SE states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Unless we have a complete lack of thunderstorms, Lee will be posting daily telling us how he got ripped off we should start a poll or bet as to when he will start his b*tching or start with the "he has a shield" when thunderstorms miss him. I bet the first oppurtunity we have tstorms and he gets missed there will be a mention of something.... It actually gets pretty comical reading it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 something happened with the NAM, when I first clicked on it at hr 30 it looked way different, but when i went back in and looked again, it was fixed, weird. It showed a really sharp S/W with no surface reflection over the SE states. that's probably your cache Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 that's probably your cache Weenies hacked it and NCEP fixed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Weenies hacked it and NCEP fixed it. 18z nam furthur north at 66 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yeah.....I got really excited and when I tried to copy and paste in on here, I couldn't find it, that would have been a major shift in the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Look at all that energy on the NAM, if we could only consolidate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 TOMBO, do u know what i can do to become not 5 posted? i only have 1 more post today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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