Thunder Road Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 So, is the dearth of posting due to coffin nails or merely Superbowl fatigue? I would have to guess coffin nails... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 This run was definitly a slight improvement, the PV is ever so slightly less supressive, for the system in the near term its ever so close to phasing in the northern stream in time to make a wholesale difference and as the system is moving OTS heights are slightly higher. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 12/26 was much more of a "will it phase in time or not?" This time its more of a will the storm in the near term completely phase? A consolidated bombing low would not only prevent the left over energy from supressing the heights along the coast in its wake but also alow for the PV to be positioned on more of a SW, NE axis rather than W E. Since the models have done poorly with the northern stream all season, its keeping the glimmer of hope alive but I would say the body is in the coffin, just waiting for the nails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I think we need to see what happens after this disturbance moves through tomorrow night. My bet is on nothing too great though, but you never know I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 If I were a betting man, I'd say there is about a 40% chance that the northern stream is going to phase tommorrow in time for one low despite what alot of the models are showing based on the trends today of diving that energy further south and the overall poor performance in handeling the northern stream thus far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 So, is the dearth of posting due to coffin nails or merely Superbowl fatigue? There just wasn't much to say.. we're all waiting to see if the models show an improvement. One good thing is this GFS run is colder in the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Well if nothing works out this week, how long will it be until there is even an event worth tracking? 2-3 weeks once the warmup is over? Or is the warmup more transient with intermittent shots of cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clindner00 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Looks like atown may be onto something. It may or may not happen but 00Z gfs ensembles are nw of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Guess the reason there's not a single post about the 0Z EC is because it looks even worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Eh, Looks pretty dead to me. The trough is dropping in over us and this thing is out to sea. Looks like we get a little bit of a break from the snow. Oh well, good for peoples' backs. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I'm too ashamed to even moderate this discussion. This is what I get for watching the Super Bowl yesterday instead of being in here. I'm not going to delete anything, but it's pretty awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Everyone should take the next 2 weeks off, relax, enjoy family and friends and re-group for a March to remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Guess the reason there's not a single post about the 0Z EC is because it looks even worse... Hmm doesn't sound like what earthlight said at all. He said it narrowly misses bringing tne storm right up the coast. So don't know if you or him are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Hmm doesn't sound like what earthlight said at all. He said it narrowly misses bringing tne storm right up the coast. So don't know if you or him are correct. There is a separate wave which the EC develops toward Saturday that it tries to bring up the coast... maybe that's what he was talking about. No other model has something like that. For this threat, the EC is pretty close to the GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Looks like atown may be onto something. It may or may not happen but 00Z gfs ensembles are nw of the op. Given the setup there is next to zero chance of a coastal IMO. I could possibly see an overrunning type event as the NAM hints at, but I don't see how there could be a coastal solution given the influence of the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duality Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 There is a separate wave which the EC develops toward Saturday that it tries to bring up the coast... maybe that's what he was talking about. No other model has something like that. For this threat, the EC is pretty close to the GFS.... Correct, Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 There is a separate wave which the EC develops toward Saturday that it tries to bring up the coast... maybe that's what he was talking about. No other model has something like that. For this threat, the EC is pretty close to the GFS.... Yea I see now. Sorry about the confusion, ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The PV on the NAM looks much less supressive on the NAM VS GFS. It looks like it wants to raise heights significantly around hr 60 but the trough is just not sharp enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The PV on the NAM looks much less supressive on the NAM VS GFS. It looks like it wants to raise heights significantly around hr 60 but the trough is just not sharp enough. Doesn't the NAM look like it is REALLY trying? I hope these steps continue, but we'll need bigger steps soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Doesn't the NAM look like it is REALLY trying? I hope these steps continue, but we'll need bigger steps soon. I agree, Earthlight seems to think that even if the southern stream comes in sharper/stronger than advertised it's not going to be enough to raise heights along the coast significanly enough because the northern stream is still too supressive, but if the models are not forecasting the event in the near term well, that's going to have downstream effects. We shall see, I wouldn't be suprised if the GFS came in closer to getting the job done with both events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Doesn't the NAM look like it is REALLY trying? I hope these steps continue, but we'll need bigger steps soon. The NAM is hinting at overrunning potential, which is possible. It's no where near developing any form of cyclogenesis (coastal) low pressure, so I wouldn't get my hopes up for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I agree, Earthlight seems to think that even if the southern stream comes in sharper/stronger than advertised it's not going to be enough to raise heights along the coast significanly enough because the northern stream is still too supressive, but if the models are not forecasting the event in the near term well, that's going to have downstream effects. We shall see, I wouldn't be suprised if the GFS came in closer to getting the job done with both events. Let's hope the GFS continues these small steps. I think we still need this next storm out of the way before giving up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 NAILS IN COFFIN- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 NAILS IN COFFIN- Not yet, but it's getting close. I don't think the current situation is being modeled very well vs current observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Just amazing how the GFS has no energy at all for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Not yet, but it's getting close. I don't think the current situation is being modeled very well vs current observations. For that H5 depiction above you need a world of change to occur in about 36 hrs if you want to see a coastal storm. I can't imagine at approx 84 hrs from said event that every single model having nearly the same solution with next to zero potential at 500 mb being that far off, but I guess one can hope. If things did a complete 180 I'd be the happiest guy on this site, well I am sure there would be lots of grins here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Take a look at the water vapor loop, it's encouraging to say the least. Energy is diving down through the Rockies and the trough looks fairly sharp. http://www.nws.noaa....age=wv&hours=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The 12z GFS says the groundhog is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Take a look at the water vapor loop, it's encouraging to say the least. Energy is diving down through the Rockies and the trough looks fairly sharp. http://www.nws.noaa....age=wv&hours=24 I don't see much difference as far as how it looks today compared to how it was modeled yesterday. In fact the GFS nailed that stripe of clouds which extends over NV just about perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Take a look at the water vapor loop, it's encouraging to say the least. Energy is diving down through the Rockies and the trough looks fairly sharp. http://www.nws.noaa....age=wv&hours=24 Here is the GFS 12Z at 6hrs for today: Looks very much like the loop you are currently advertising, models are handling things rtather well right now form what I can see and this trough will change tremendously in two days once that PV you can see on your WV loop slides down from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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