phlwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I love how you highlight only the portion that supports your argument and ignore the whole following section... somewhere, somehow, a NOGAPS reference will be forthcoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 somewhere, somehow, a NOGAPS reference will be forthcoming... LOL it keeps getting better!! I heard the KMA shifted west too!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Wow so many people ready for the warm weather and its only February 6th! I for one am not ready for the warmth. I will have enough of that when its in the 90's with high humidity much rather have the cold weather! And who can trust jb first he said winter was done until March then he had ta getting whacked with winter storm now he saying break out the shorts again...LOL. If we can get a couple of weeks of mild weather followed by snow at the end of Feb to close out met winter I'd roll with that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 If we can get a couple of weeks of mild weather followed by snow at the end of Feb to close out met winter I'd roll with that... In all honesty... after what you've had so far, you should probably be satisfied no matter what happens in the next 2 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 If we can get a couple of weeks of mild weather followed by snow at the end of Feb to close out met winter I'd roll with that... +1. I'm heading to Park City on the 22nd so I'm rooting for that -PNA so that I can get some Pow days on the mountain!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I love how much calmer it is being seperated from the NYC crowd, these threads seem so calm and down to earth and alot less wishcasting and just the run of the mill talk and such. Now this is how it should have been, even if we dont get the storm we have a slight warmup to look forward to and get the place cleaned up for maybe some more brand new snow eventually, we can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 In all honesty... after what you've had so far, you should probably be satisfied no matter what happens in the next 2 months I can cash out now and send the snow west as far as I'm concerned but the snow weenies in the East will whimper and moan about a long spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I love how much calmer it is being seperated from the NYC crowd, these threads seem so calm and down to earth and alot less wishcasting and just the run of the mill talk and such. Now this is how it should have been, even if we dont get the storm we have a slight warmup to look forward to and get the place cleaned up for maybe some more brand new snow eventually, we can hope. We aren't void of wishcasting, but it's not as bad as NYC thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 We aren't void of wishcasting, but it's not as bad as NYC thread Yes true, but its a much calmer environment here it seems, and much more freely speaking without being burried by the NYC region crowd. It seemed like it was 50 posts of theirs to every one of ours like we didnt even matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I love how you highlight only the portion that supports your argument and ignore the whole following section... What are you talking about? I posted the two reasons that are given.. Reason #1 the sharpness of the trough ..how they would like to see it sharper.... Reason # 2 the pattern change...after the storm... So what did i leave out..the part how they said it "could" be the modeling is in the correct direction? The part about what HPC went with? I think most are aware of the two reasons & I think most are aware that the models did not pick up on the sharpness of the trough for the monday tuesday event..until surprise short term 48 hrs and under... i think what many are failing to recognize is the pattern change is AFTER the storm ..not before the storm...So go back to the teleconnections that were posted earlier...and lets just see how strong the cold air push is to begin with.... If we are indeed going into a negative PNA before the storm then this would argue for higher height rises along the east coast... with the negative EPO in place at about -2 this would also argue for a stronger SE ridge....this could all very well indeed argue for a further west track.... We are not in short range yet...you can feel free to pull the plug on a system potentially effecting the area and I will not be offended at all...but if this does trend back more to the west and effect the region more then what guidance is currently suggesting then I also hope you do not all of a sudden change your tune... 102-120 hours out nothing is set in stone..... CONSIDERING MODEL VARIABILITYOVER SEVERAL SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE NOT SET INSTONE...BUT DO BECOME HARDER TO REVERSE AS LEAD TIME SHRINKSTOWARD SHORT RANGE TIME FRAMES. ACCORDINGLY AND CONSIDERINGCONTINUITY...HPC PROGS REMAIN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/05ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WED/THU...AND A HINT OF THE GFS. THIS OLDERECMWF MEAN TRACKED SYSTEM SWATH SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE LEFT THAN THEBULK OF NEWER 00/12 UTC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND TRIES TOINCORPORATE ANY LINGERING POSSIBLE EFFECTS FROM ANY SYSTEMEJECTING OVER SERN US RIDGING ALOFT. As i stated ..HPC also states about the same thing as not being set in stone... Once i make an actual forecast...then the discussion can be more prudent but until that point and time arrives it seems like basically the time period is still open and not closed.... and options are on the table... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 And another, nice to see there are others that agree. I'm surprised he didn't actually delete the word "while" out of the quote so that it would read "this could happen again with this system". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I can cash out now and send the snow west as far as I'm concerned but the snow weenies in the East will whimper and moan about a long spring. I wont whimper if we get a long spring with loads of thunderstorms, and i grab tons of footage of awesome lightning, as i am getting a new laptop and also comcast high speed to go to go chasing after the best stuff. This year i will be better prepaired for what is gonna hit us, plus i will be able to drop my files faster and such. And maybe be able to upload the files to my home computer also while out and about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Mt Holly updated AFD THE ECMWF SHIFTED IN THISDIRECTION LAST EVENING AND THE 12Z CYCLE MAINTAINS THIS SCENARIO.THEREFORE, THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR NO REAL STORM NOW FOR OURAREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WE HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTERTHAT AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT, THE MODEL GUIDANCE COMES BACKNORTHWESTWARD WITH THE STORM TRACK. WHILE THIS COULD HAPPEN AGAINWITH THIS SYSTEM, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS AGAINST IT. FIRST, THEBROADNESS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORESHARPNESS TAKING PLACE AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST. SECONDLY,FOLLOWING THIS STORM THERE IS A PATTERN CHANGE FORECAST TO OCCUR. I typed much more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yes true, but its a much calmer environment here it seems, and much more freely speaking without being burried by the NYC region crowd. It seemed like it was 50 posts of theirs to every one of ours like we didnt even matter. Oh yeah It already was an NYC thread basically! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I love how much calmer it is being seperated from the NYC crowd, these threads seem so calm and down to earth and alot less wishcasting and just the run of the mill talk and such. Now this is how it should have been, even if we dont get the storm we have a slight warmup to look forward to and get the place cleaned up for maybe some more brand new snow eventually, we can hope. I thought you would be ready for thunderstorms by now. LOL I see you already posted about thunderstorms above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I thought you would be ready for thunderstorms by now. There were thunderstorms not that far off the New Jersey coast last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 What are you talking about? I posted the two reasons that are given.. Reason #1 the sharpness of the trough ..how they would like to see it sharper.... Reason # 2 the pattern change...after the storm... So what did i leave out..the part how they said it "could" be the modeling is in the correct direction? The part about what HPC went with? I think most are aware of the two reasons & I think most are aware that the models did not pick up on the sharpness of the trough for the monday tuesday event..until surprise short term 48 hrs and under... i think what many are failing to recognize is the pattern change is AFTER the storm ..not before the storm...So go back to the teleconnections that were posted earlier...and lets just see how strong the cold air push is to begin with.... If we are indeed going into a negative PNA before the storm then this would argue for higher height rises along the east coast... with the negative EPO in place at about -2 this would also argue for a stronger SE ridge....this could all very well indeed argue for a further west track.... We are not in short range yet...you can feel free to pull the plug on a system potentially effecting the area and I will not be offended at all...but if this does trend back more to the west and effect the region more then what guidance is currently suggesting then I also hope you do not all of a sudden change your tune... 102-120 hours out nothing is set in stone..... CONSIDERING MODEL VARIABILITYOVER SEVERAL SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...GUIDANCE TRENDS ARE NOT SET INSTONE...BUT DO BECOME HARDER TO REVERSE AS LEAD TIME SHRINKSTOWARD SHORT RANGE TIME FRAMES. ACCORDINGLY AND CONSIDERINGCONTINUITY...HPC PROGS REMAIN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/05ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WED/THU...AND A HINT OF THE GFS. THIS OLDERECMWF MEAN TRACKED SYSTEM SWATH SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE LEFT THAN THEBULK OF NEWER 00/12 UTC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND TRIES TOINCORPORATE ANY LINGERING POSSIBLE EFFECTS FROM ANY SYSTEMEJECTING OVER SERN US RIDGING ALOFT. As i stated ..HPC also states about the same thing as not being set in stone... Once i make an actual forecast...then the discussion can be more prudent but until that point and time arrives it seems like basically the time period is still open and not closed.... and options are on the table... You are reaching!! You also said it would trend west yesterday, that is a statement of a fact so I'm holding you to that.. HPC doesn't portray any sense of certainty in regards to a westward shift unlike your statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 There were thunderstorms not that far off the New Jersey coast last evening. Conveniently missing Lee, of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I thought you would be ready for thunderstorms by now. I am ready for all sorts of weather, my first passion is SNOW, then the rest follow thunderstorms and such. I think you'll notice a better outcome for this year from me with footage. Mind everyone here that i have another huge hobby also called DX'ing so i have other things also. Plus now a home owner i am also gonna be sorta busy with doing things around the yard and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 There were thunderstorms not that far off the New Jersey coast last evening. I seen them off the coast plus the storms up in UPSTATE NY. I wasnt mad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 As i said I am very well aware of what you typed and I am very well aware of what the current guidance is showing...but at 102 hours out ...things are not set in stone and with majority of your systems trending towards the NW in the shorter term....i do not think its wise to say that this might not happen again..I prefer to leave all options on the table and wait to see just how strong this push of colder air is and how far south it makes it..... Just stop already, we all know you think it's going to come west in the end, you've made that blatantly clear. Your not helping your case any by posting the only part of Mike's AFD, that pertains to what you say, leaving out the parts that don't say what you want, and then say you are leaving all options on the table. And you telling Mike things are not set in stone, is hilarious. I think he knows just a bit more then you do. Your really making yourself look like a wishcaster, with EVERY model going agaisnt what you say. Stop cluttering up the thread with this crap over and over again. It's been going on for hours now. It's been just as bad, or worse then NYC was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 As i said I am very well aware of what you typed and I am very well aware of what the current guidance is showing...but at 102 hours out ...things are not set in stone and with majority of your systems trending towards the NW in the shorter term....i do not think its wise to say that this might not happen again..I prefer to leave all options on the table and wait to see just how strong this push of colder air is and how far south it makes it..... But you said it WILL trend west yesterday, that leaves one option on the table as far as I can tell. Now you are back tracking on your statement from yesterday. When in fact you at least had one model EURO in your camp and now you have zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I am going to go out on a limb here with this and say that since the NOGAPS at 138 hrs has actually trended west from previous runs that this is going to be coming more west & Adams thoughts are very much IMO going to be realized by the time this is in short range..... Ok last time, but from the statement above what options are you leaving on the table? Looks like one to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 So, I am not entitled to an opinion is what you are saying because you do not agree with it? Tell me where i have said anything about this coming west before the short term? I am suppose to just allow people to personally insult my opinions without defending them? This is my last post on this subject and I am going to leave you all to your doom and gloom scenario while i continue to do what I been doing which is watching the guidance and teleconnections and keep the options open which is basically what HPC has said & the AFD from MT Holly....yes there are things against this coming west...but I am not one to say that models that have trouble with system at 60 hrs out have the correct handle at 102 hours out.... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/12781-a-day-in-the-life-of-the-nyc-metro-forum/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 As i said I am very well aware of what you typed and I am very well aware of what the current guidance is showing...but at 102 hours out ...things are not set in stone and with majority of your systems trending towards the NW in the shorter term....i do not think its wise to say that this might not happen again..I prefer to leave all options on the table and wait to see just how strong this push of colder air is and how far south it makes it..... I am aware things are not set in stone, since this is what 4 days away. I was just stating that there was more to that part of the AFD than what you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 So, I am not entitled to an opinion is what you are saying because you do not agree with it? Tell me where i have said anything about this coming west before the short term? I am suppose to just allow people to personally insult my opinions without defending them? This is my last post on this subject and I am going to leave you all to your doom and gloom scenario while i continue to do what I been doing which is watching the guidance and teleconnections and keep the options open which is basically what HPC has said & the AFD from MT Holly....yes there are things against this coming west...but I am not one to say that models that have trouble with system at 60 hrs out have the correct handle at 102 hours out.... Yes. Because with EVERY single storm, all you ever do is ride the NOGAPS like it's the word of God, no matter what any other model shows. And most of the time you're completely wrong. Not many of us are saying this storm is over, only a few weenies are, but what you are doing is just as bad as them. Yes this storm could completely change for the better, once the SW comes onshore, but as of right now, it looks like crap for us. Either way, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I'm too ashamed to even moderate this discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
56er Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I think we have this threat, and this thread, exactly where we want them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 As of 12z, not a single analog over the east through 120hrs had measurable snow for our region. One foot is definitly in the grave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 So, is the dearth of posting due to coffin nails or merely Superbowl fatigue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.