famartin Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 No offense but I've noticed a pattern with your thoughts this winter. They always favor storms trending towards your backyard. If this was a lakes cutter your thoughts would say it would trend east in subsequent runs. I take your thoughts with a grain of salt, not to say this won't, but since every model less the Euro is OTS it sounds more like wishcasting at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks like this mornings runs are also ots! Not looking too promising atm. Maybe things will be better on the later runs... oops that's wishcasting right? No that's a possibility! If you said this WILL trend more north and west that is wishcasting:) I hope it starts to trend north and west but that's just plain old hope and nothing more. I won't say it will bc there is nothing to lend support to such a statement at this time IMO. Look at the PV it just squashes the S/W OTS on every model now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Regardless of possibilities of this trending back NW... today's 12Z GFS is definitely worse than yesterday's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 12z GFS is ugly in regards to this potential. Would have liked to have seen a better trend but if anything, it got worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Regardless of possibilities of this trending back NW... today's 12Z GFS is definitely worse than yesterday's. 12z GFS is ugly in regards to this potential. Would have liked to have seen a better trend but if anything, it got worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I beat you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I beat you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I believe if we miss these storms this week winter will be toast quite soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This event is nearly dead we need to hope that the models are not properly forecasting the event at 48hrs for this to have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I believe if we miss these storms this week winter will be toast quite soon. Oh really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 ggem now going towards the gfs with crushing the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 ggem now going towards the gfs with crushing the storm i'm never one to put a fork in a storm 5 days out but the trends today are exact opposite of what we would like to see. The fat lady isn't singing yet but she is warming up her voice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I need to see some model come in a little better than this today, I know its 5 days out, but all models trending in the exact opposite direction even at this point is never a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Oh really? Hey I hope not, but as far as big snowstorms go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I need to see some model come in a little better than this today, I know its 5 days out, but all models trending in the exact opposite direction even at this point is never a good sign Dec. 26 is an example of how the models can all be wrong this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 We are still like 4-5 days away from this event. Chances are, the track will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 We are still like 4-5 days away from this event. Chances are, the track will change. It keeps on changing, but for the worse, not better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It keeps on changing, but for the worst, not better. Exactly. Look for the Euro to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Euro OTS now too. The setup for this event is synoptically different than yesterday's event and by saying look what yesterday's event did and applying it to this is wishcasting in the face of all of the models. What support is there for an OTS track?? What support isn't there?? Simply stating the NAO is positive isn't support. Just bc the NAO is positive doesnt mean a storm has to hug the coast. Look at the PV it's huge and it's elongated from east to west on the models, that is why it's OTS on every model and without any kind of phase it will remain that way. I'm not saying things can't change and all of the data isn't even over the conus for good sampling, but anybody that says OTS isn't viable right now is wishcasting IMO and has no support in that claim that's all. I hope for my backyards sake it does come NW and alot more NW, but I'm not going to say it will without any model support. For starters ... I believe you should look at what i had actually stated.. By the time this gets into short range...by short range i mean under 48 hrs....perhaps even under 36 hrs.... Now, since the beginning of tracking this threat I have stated (and always do) specifically what each model is verbatim showing and suggesting...from there i look at the teleconnections that are actually in place which more or less drive the weather that we experience Also I never at one point and time said that Out To Sea is not viable...Once again please do not put words into my mouth. If i have stated this I would like you to point me out to where I have actually said this? A link would be sufficient. Now lets compare last nights 00z GFS means to 12 Z GFS means.... Last night at 108 hrs... http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12120.gif Todays 12 Z at 108 hrs. http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12108.gif Interestingly enough the means since 00z have actually shifted towards the NW... Now lets go back to the 12 Z operational GFS @ 84 hrs.. http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06084.gif We see an area of 1026 mb high pressure right along the SE Coast.... And if you look at this view http://raleighwx.ame...tropical084.gif You see that area of 1026 high pressure is connected to an area of 1025 mbs to the east. By 90 hrs http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06090.gif That stronger area of high pressure gets shoved east by a weak 1017 area of low pressure when majority of that energy is actually still over Louisianna? Now..if you want to believe that a weak area of 1017 mb low pressure is actually going to push a 1026 mb high pressure east...(with the low actually over LA) then by all means you are entitled to that opinion..however..I do not believe something like that is going to actually occur... I believe the models are underestimating the strength of the Southeast Ridge or that area of High pressure... Now you can also claim that past recent events such as this past weekend are irrelevant... However..if we have the same teleconnections in place for this upcoming potential as this past weekend then how is it irrelevant? NAO is positive..AO is positive....PNA currently neutral...(going negative) and EPO expected negative... Models are to be used as guidance and as tools when one is forecasting .... So these thoughts of mine are not based on "nothing" but rather teleconnections & pattern in place and looking at guidance & factoring in climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 One piece of good news: in the NY thread, they say the GFS ensembles look better than the 00z ones. I think this threat could be suppressed, but it's not over by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 You know things are not going well when not a single storm shows up on the 120hr analongs over the east. That was as of the 00z runs. We have a couple outside chances here. The first concern is the system on Tuesday. The models have been trending sharper and deeper with the trough but a piece of the PV is breaking off too late and missing the phase. You can see it here on the GFS which is why we end up with a decent event early in the week even if the coastal stays offshore. We need the entire northern stream to dive southwest over the rockies during this time frame and its not happening. As we move later in the run, you can see how this secondary piece of energy is acting as a kicker and forcing the inital wave off the coast. Meanwhile our energy of interest is now diving down through the Pacific. The mean ridge axis is about 300 miles west of ideal. It's becoming clear already at this point in the run that there is split flow over the Rockies and the northern stream clearly is not digging SW enough. If corrected that would make a huge difference. Moving ahead further in the run, the concequences of the second S/W missing the phase over the northeast are making there self known. Both are now attempting to phase with the PV but the second S/W is helping to keep heights lowered on the east coast. We need one consolidated phased low at this point over Nova Scota or were dead in the water. Our energy of interest is now moving through the four corners region. By hr 78, the northern stream is starting to drop in more over western Canada but the damage has already been done. The PV is supressing heights along the coast and its game set match. By hr 96, our southern stream energy is a sheared out mess. Thanks to the south east riding, the trough is permitted to amplify ever so slightly allowing for a non-organized mess of a low to head out to sea off the MA coast. The PV is in firm control and keeping heights lowered along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 alright, 12z euro is out to hr 12, lets see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I am going to go out on a limb here with this and say that since the NOGAPS at 138 hrs has actually trended west from previous runs that this is going to be coming more west & Adams thoughts are very much IMO going to be realized by the time this is in short range..... This right here is what I am alluding to, amongst other postings by you during other threats. I dont post on here regularly, but lurk for the quality mets that do. It's not just you it's lots of weenies who wishcast with absolutely zero support or rationale to back an idea other than the end result of there thinking brings snow to their doorstep. If the weather solely followed the teleconnections and climo then we wouldn't of had half the snowfall we received this year. The teleconnections are merely a basis for various conditions that are favorable to certain patterns and we had more snow this winter with zero high latitude blocking than we've had with blocking. Basing forecasts solely on climo and teleconnections, while ignoring the models is stupid IMO, not that you don't use the models. We defied all climo odds to date this winter. I'm not trying to argue with you, but the endless wishcasting has brought me to wits end. I appologize for upsetting you, but there is a reason I pointed this out about your "thoughts" this winter. You specifically say it will move north and west above. "Will" and "Is" (like you use above) are terms of certainty and should be avoided when forecasting. I am sorry for pointing a finger at you so to speak and I may be wrong about what drives your thinking, but where we currently stand all you have to hang your hat on is climo bc you have zero model support right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 so far through hr 66 the euro looks a little slower in bringing the energy out....the hgts on the ec are a little lower as the northern stream is a little more expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 this run isn't gonna be pretty based on what I'm seeing at h5 hr 66, southern pices falling way behind compared even to 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This right here is what I am alluding to, amongst other postings by you during other threats. I dont post on here regularly, but lurk for the quality mets that do. It's not just you it's lots of weenies who wishcast with absolutely zero support or rationale to back an idea other than the end result of there thinking brings snow to their doorstep. If the weather solely followed the teleconnections and climo then we wouldn't of had half the snowfall we received this year. The teleconnections are merely a basis for various conditions that are favorable to certain patterns and we had more snow this winter with zero high latitude blocking than we've had with blocking. Basing forecasts solely on climo and teleconnections, while ignoring the models is stupid IMO. We defied all climo odds to date this winter. I'm not trying to argue with you, but the endless wishcasting has brought me to wits end. I appologize for upsetting you, but there is a reason I pointed this out about your "thoughts" this winter. You specifically say it will move north and west above. "Will" is a term of certainty and should be avoided in meteorology. that this is going to be coming more west & Adams thoughts are very much IMO going to be realized by the time this is in short range..... From what you just quoted back to me... Are we in the short range yet? Did i not just come back to you with viable reasoning supported by teleconnections, and model guidance? Somehow you ignored that...I am not sure why..... You are entitled to your thoughts and you have not upset me by any means...verification time is about 120 hours away from happening and i have yet to come out with a forecast only thoughts at this present time based on what is happening and what has happened and what is still happening via now with the monday tuesday event.... (more northwest then originally modeled) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 hr 84 the southern stream continues to lag behind from 0z run...the hgts are much flatter than sw to ne... hr 84 has a 1012 low on the central coast of la...with some lgt precip streaming up to sw pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 What an epic fail of a storm. So sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 hr 90 has a sub 1012 low in the norther gom....most of the meanignful precip is from the tn on south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 hr 96 has a sun 1012 low in ne gom and another about 100 miles off the ga coast... no precip north of southern va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.