Quakertown needs snow Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 thanks for the euro update tom... looks good this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Jma big hit for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Jma big hit for the area. just looking at the accum precip looks like .5-1 accum for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 just looking at the accum precip looks like .5-1 accum for the area Yep. Still think we are in agreat spot for this to come a little more Nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 FWIW, and it may not be much, but I am still more concerned about this being a rain/mixed event than missing OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 FWIW, and it may not be much, but I am still more concerned about this being a rain/mixed event than missing OTS. that is deff a legit concer. Just look at this current storm and how much it has trended nw...The pattern if it falls right can still have thing thing cut easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 FWIW, and it may not be much, but I am still more concerned about this being a rain/mixed event than missing OTS. ADAM..so you are thinking a more western track then which would bring a wintery mix into the big cities? Or am i reading to much into this? If so, how far west the surface low are you thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 ADAM..so you are thinking a more western track then which would bring a wintery mix into the big cities? Or am i reading to much into this? Nope, you got it. I have a suspicion that the models are underplaying the WAA over the ocean and allowing too much suppresion by the PV. I'm really only basing it on Nina climo and the appearance of the subtropical ridge. It hasn't been around all winter, so I can't compare it to anything recently, but all summer, the models were biased to a weaker/quicker to breakdown subtropical high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 heres a map also red 1.25-1.5 purplish pink 1-1.25 blue .75-1 lime green .5-.75 dark green .25-.5 lgt green .1-.25 love that new regional map . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 What exactly is keeping the storm suppressed? The NAO and AO are positive. The current pattern to me seems to indicate that the storm would be pushed inland rather than kept OTS. Is the PV sitting to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 What exactly is keeping the storm suppressed? The NAO and AO are positive. The current pattern to me seems to indicate that the storm would be pushed inland rather than kept OTS. Is the PV sitting to the north? Yes, precisely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Sharp cutoff reigns supreme once again it seems. Strongly agree. Hope JB is right about the back of winter being broken the following week after next. Getting sick of it quite frankly. The storm today though trended a lot farther NW then most models predicted, could be your only hope if you want a big snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 From the HPC's Final Discussion...seems the Euro is mostly on it's own: SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST WED/D4 SHOULD FORM SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THU/D5. THE 00Z ECMWF HAD QUICKENED ITS PACE FROM YESTERDAY WHILE THE CORRESPONDING GFS HAD SLOWED. THEREFORE SPREAD AMONGST THE 00Z MODELS WITH THIS SE SYS HAS DECREASED FOR THU. QUESTIONS REMAINED AS TO WHETHER THIS LOW WILL STAY FLAT AND MOVE OUT TO SEA OR MORE AMPLIFIED AND RIDE UP THE COAST. FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE OF DATA...A NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS WERE ON THE TABLE. MOST 12Z/05 MODELS HAVE TRENDED FLATTER/MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THAT SYS AS DESCRIBED BELOW. DETERMINISTIC 12Z/05 MODELS: THE NEW 12Z GFS HAS PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY FROM ITS 00Z RUN OVER MOST OF THE WEATHER MAP WITH FEW NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. IT HAS TRENDED FLATTER THAN ITS 00Z RUN WITH THE HOTLY DEBATED POTENTIAL STORM DEVELOPING THU ALONG THE SE COAST OF THE CONUS. IT TRACKS THIS SYS FLATTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF ITS CONTINUITY THEREAFTER INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THE 12Z UKMET/CANADIAN/ARE ALSO FLATTER AND MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THEY WERE IN THEIR 00Z RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS THE MOST VIGOROUS COASTAL SYS OF ALL THE NEW MODELS...AND STILL THREATENS A SNOWSTORM FROM AR ACROSS TN/KY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. I WILL NOT SPECULATE ON SNOW AMOUNTS WITH SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTCOME ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishinfever Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 any word on euro ensembles,did they come west at all or still off the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 any word on euro ensembles,did they come west at all or still off the coast? They look OTS to me. 120 has a weak low S of the FL panhandle, 144 it's well SE of the BM. I still think our bigger worry is a cutter though rather than an OTS sol'n. But we'll have to wait and see I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishinfever Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 love that new regional map . I miss the Space Invader maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I think Adam has speculated this could be a mix issue....this could prove true but this one really will be a bit different in that very strong fresh cold air would just have been introduced into the NE and I would bet the only mixing issues will be toward the usual suspects along the Jersey/DE shore and Long Island folks. Any way you slice it I think this is a great set up for a significant snowstorm for the Norhern Mid Atlantic this week. Even the early week event could be interesting for inland spots. Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 They look OTS to me. 120 has a weak low S of the FL panhandle, 144 it's well SE of the BM. I still think our bigger worry is a cutter though rather than an OTS sol'n. But we'll have to wait and see I guess... They are better than the 0z ensembles, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 To be clear, my mixing concern lies with the storm track, not the air mass. I'm suggesting the low could track farther west than any model is currently showing. If I had to make a forecast and my life depended on it, I'd probably take the current Euro and be done, but I'm hypothesizing where things could go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The HPC's early AM preliminary had wondered even then with the 0Z EURO Ens. 'why" they didn't have a more robust qpf field... They are better than the 0z ensembles, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 18z gfs a little stronger system than 12 z but still OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 To be clear, my mixing concern lies with the storm track, not the air mass. I'm suggesting the low could track farther west than any model is currently showing. If I had to make a forecast and my life depended on it, I'd probably take the current Euro and be done, but I'm hypothesizing where things could go wrong. C'mon now, it NEVER mixes when its been down into the teens the day before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 C'mon now, it NEVER mixes when its been down into the teens the day before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Didn't see this posted, 12z fim which is very close to the euro with its track just a weaker mslp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Ray As Ben Franklin said "either you are weatherwise or otherwise". My wife said to me the other day before the ice storm that..."how can it rain... it's 24 degrees"?" She really didn't care to hear an explanation..... Paul C'mon now, it NEVER mixes when its been down into the teens the day before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 anything new with the models? Aside from the NAM which only goes to 84 hrs...models just start coming out at 10:30 PM est for the GFS and later for the foreign models..So in short....no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 the gfs so far has increased hgts along the ec, also is digging the northern stream down better at hr 96. The trof is stil to broad though, its going to have a hard time climbing the coast again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 i'm probably seeing it wrong, but to me, this does not look really impressive. GFS thru 120 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Personally I thought the first 96hrs was an improvement. Seemed like the northern stream was digging more but the system for Tuesday was just too sloppy with the energy and kept heights down along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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