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February 9-11 Potential


Harbourton

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FWIW, and it may not be much, but I am still more concerned about this being a rain/mixed event than missing OTS.

ADAM..so you are thinking a more western track then which would bring a wintery mix into the big cities? Or am i reading to much into this? If so, how far west the surface low are you thinking?

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ADAM..so you are thinking a more western track then which would bring a wintery mix into the big cities? Or am i reading to much into this?

Nope, you got it. I have a suspicion that the models are underplaying the WAA over the ocean and allowing too much suppresion by the PV. I'm really only basing it on Nina climo and the appearance of the subtropical ridge. It hasn't been around all winter, so I can't compare it to anything recently, but all summer, the models were biased to a weaker/quicker to breakdown subtropical high.

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Sharp cutoff reigns supreme once again it seems.

Strongly agree. Hope JB is right about the back of winter being broken the following week after next. Getting sick of it quite frankly.

The storm today though trended a lot farther NW then most models predicted, could be your only hope if you want a big snowstorm.

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From the HPC's Final Discussion...seems the Euro is mostly on it's own: SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST WED/D4 SHOULD

FORM SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY

THU/D5. THE 00Z ECMWF HAD QUICKENED ITS PACE FROM YESTERDAY WHILE

THE CORRESPONDING GFS HAD SLOWED. THEREFORE SPREAD AMONGST THE 00Z

MODELS WITH THIS SE SYS HAS DECREASED FOR THU. QUESTIONS REMAINED

AS TO WHETHER THIS LOW WILL STAY FLAT AND MOVE OUT TO SEA OR MORE

AMPLIFIED AND RIDE UP THE COAST. FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE OF

DATA...A NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS WERE ON THE TABLE. MOST 12Z/05 MODELS

HAVE TRENDED FLATTER/MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THAT SYS AS DESCRIBED

BELOW.

DETERMINISTIC 12Z/05 MODELS:

THE NEW 12Z GFS HAS PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY FROM ITS 00Z RUN OVER

MOST OF THE WEATHER MAP WITH FEW NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. IT HAS

TRENDED FLATTER THAN ITS 00Z RUN WITH THE HOTLY DEBATED POTENTIAL

STORM DEVELOPING THU ALONG THE SE COAST OF THE CONUS. IT TRACKS

THIS SYS FLATTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF ITS CONTINUITY THEREAFTER

INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THE 12Z UKMET/CANADIAN/ARE ALSO FLATTER AND

MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THEY WERE IN THEIR 00Z RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS

THE MOST VIGOROUS COASTAL SYS OF ALL THE NEW MODELS...AND STILL

THREATENS A SNOWSTORM FROM AR ACROSS TN/KY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

REGION. I WILL NOT SPECULATE ON SNOW AMOUNTS WITH SUCH LOW

CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTCOME ATTM.

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any word on euro ensembles,did they come west at all or still off the coast?

They look OTS to me.

120 has a weak low S of the FL panhandle, 144 it's well SE of the BM.

I still think our bigger worry is a cutter though rather than an OTS sol'n. But we'll have to wait and see I guess...

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I think Adam has speculated this could be a mix issue....this could prove true but this one really will be a bit different in that very strong fresh cold air would just have been introduced into the NE and I would bet the only mixing issues will be toward the usual suspects along the Jersey/DE shore and Long Island folks. Any way you slice it I think this is a great set up for a significant snowstorm for the Norhern Mid Atlantic this week. Even the early week event could be interesting for inland spots.

Paul

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To be clear, my mixing concern lies with the storm track, not the air mass. I'm suggesting the low could track farther west than any model is currently showing.

If I had to make a forecast and my life depended on it, I'd probably take the current Euro and be done, but I'm hypothesizing where things could go wrong.

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To be clear, my mixing concern lies with the storm track, not the air mass. I'm suggesting the low could track farther west than any model is currently showing.

If I had to make a forecast and my life depended on it, I'd probably take the current Euro and be done, but I'm hypothesizing where things could go wrong.

C'mon now, it NEVER mixes when its been down into the teens the day before ;)

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Ray

As Ben Franklin said "either you are weatherwise or otherwise". My wife said to me the other day before the ice storm that..."how can it rain... it's 24 degrees"?" She really didn't care to hear an explanation.....

Paul

C'mon now, it NEVER mixes when its been down into the teens the day before ;)

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