Harbourton Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Okie Dokie - go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Until we get some blocking back up in Greenland the I-95 corridor down here is going to suffer from a lot of snow to heavy rain events. Nina is fully flexing its muscles and we're now seeing climo for such a strong one. Winter in northern DE is effectively over after the first week of March so we are quickly running out of time......not sure we're going to see another significant storm unless this pattern flips quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It seems like fair game, no idea why some people are bailing because of the 12z euro.Teleconnections may not be as favorable but there will be a fresh supply of cold air. Don't think the chances of rain NW of I-95 are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Potential is there next week, and at this point that's one of the most important factors. With that said, the clock is ticking on winter and it only makes sense in the next 4-8 weeks for storms to become more likely wet. instead white along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I really don't think this will be a snowstorm for at least the coastal areas. Also, if there is a vort behind the main one as shown on the GFS, it could phase and pull it even more west. There is nothing pushing this off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 JB 3pm... he is working on this now...TITLE OF NEXT POST: IS THE REAL BLIZZARD OF THE CENTURY COMING NEXT WEEK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 JB 3pm... he is working on this now...TITLE OF NEXT POST: IS THE REAL BLIZZARD OF THE CENTURY COMING NEXT WEEK? that is a bold title..........esp since many people read his stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Until we get some blocking back up in Greenland the I-95 corridor down here is going to suffer from a lot of snow to heavy rain events. Nina is fully flexing its muscles and we're now seeing climo for such a strong one. Winter in northern DE is effectively over after the first week of March so we are quickly running out of time......not sure we're going to see another significant storm unless this pattern flips quick. This last event I had rain, hardly what I call heavy with sleet mixed in. How about March 1993 I had around 17 inches and April Fool's day 1997..I had around 8 inches on that one. I blieve back in March 1958 Northern Delaware had 18 to over 25 inches and that was on the first day of spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It's nice to see the models showing great potential for that period. Details will be worked out next week, of course. Certainly, we haven't lacked storm threats to track over the last 6 weeks or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 oh the usual inland runner signals....phasing with a misplaced ridge off the W US coast and or extending into Cali and no blocking do you guys really think this will be snowstorm anywhere east of p-burg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 oh the usual inland runner signals....phasing with a misplaced ridge off the W US coast and or extending into Cali and no blocking do you guys really think this will be snowstorm anywhere east of p-burg? Yes, Probably, Maybe, No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 oh the usual inland runner signals....phasing with a misplaced ridge off the W US coast and or extending into Cali and no blocking do you guys really think this will be snowstorm anywhere east of p-burg? Do you really think this will be a rainstorm in State College? Personally, I have no idea if this will be rain, snow, ice, a brief thundershower, locusts or frogs. It's an event that has some potential at this point. Trying to determine the exact track and p-type is an exercise for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Do you really think this will be a rainstorm in State College? Personally, I have no idea if this will be rain, snow, ice, a brief thundershower, locusts or frogs. It's an event that has some potential at this point. Trying to determine the exact track and p-type is an exercise for next week. I'd favor that and or a sloppy mess over a snowstorm for them. I here ya though, a threat is a threat, no matter how dismal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 This threat definitely has some legs and solutions vary from hardly nothing to an inland track to a perfect BM track right now. Lots of supports on the ops, the GEFS, the Euro, and the ens members (havent looked at GGEM, UKIE, or NGP yet). Not sure why people are getting hung up on exact track and precip types right now considering this is over a week away and we've seen how much models can swing within 36 hours of an event. This system certainly has my interest piqued in that some guidance is supporting a very potent system. Any time the Euro and other globals are this strong (sub 980mb?) this far out, something big is usually brewing. The details can be worked out this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Count me in the inland camp for now. With high pressure sliding off the East Coast and the ridge over the GoA, things aren't great for getting this one to come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 JB 3pm... he is working on this now...TITLE OF NEXT POST: IS THE REAL BLIZZARD OF THE CENTURY COMING NEXT WEEK? Man, I really admire this guys predictions. First he says record heat and winter is over by February 14 and in his next blog he says a blizzard of the century coming? He is pulling a real fast one here. If the blizzard falls through, he cannot be faulted for saying it was the next heat wave that caused it. Gimme me a break. Playing both sides of the forecast. NOWS THATS UNPROFESSIONAL IN MY EYES. His credibility is going downhill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I haven't spent much time looking at the Euro, glanced real quick.....is the 12z track from Alabama into New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 18Z GFS at 132 hours looks like another SWFE....SE ridge is flat/non-existent with the PV in essentially the same spot as the Feb 1 ice storm. Not saying I buy it, but that's the setup it shows verbatim at H5. Then at 156 it goes to this stick of ignited dynamite: As others have stated....HP is off the coast pulling away. Not the best of setups but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 WOW! This is just about all snow on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 DGEX catching on as well. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Anybody catch gfs at hr 102? That is fairly close to a coastal right there. Something to watch http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_102m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Anybody catch gfs at hr 102? That is fairly close to a coastal right there. Something to watch http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_102m.gif Yeah, that's interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Anybody catch gfs at hr 102? That is fairly close to a coastal right there. Something to watch http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_102m.gif If we could get that baby tight to the coast, it would give me a nice birthday present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenavp Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 If we could get that baby tight to the coast, it would give me a nice birthday present. Love the deepening to 932 mb on 192hr frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Sorry but in northern DE I had rain with heavier rain mixed in this past storm and I think I'll see more of that this weekend and next week. You're giving me 3 example over the past 53 years as proof to refute my claim that winter is essentially over IMBY after the first week of March? Actually the Superstorm and April Fool's days events were run of the mill here really....I'm not even sure we got snow in 1997. Remember I'm talking about my backyard here.....its ova' come March 8th normally. This last event I had rain, hardly what I call heavy with sleet mixed in. How about March 1993 I had around 17 inches and April Fool's day 1997..I had around 8 inches on that one. I blieve back in March 1958 Northern Delaware had 18 to over 25 inches and that was on the first day of spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 JB did a special Big Dog tonight since he is out tomorrow... quick highlights: Has never seen a winter week in February before that’s coming next week…. way below normal temp’s country wide. Was looking back 50 years. Was looking at superstorms of past ’66, ’93, ‘78 Very hyped up about next week with how similar storms look. The week of all weeks of winter next week. Warm-up coming following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 i hope JB is right but from what i read both LC and DT say it will be great for the midwest and not the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 i hope JB is right but from what i read both LC and DT say it will be great for the midwest and not the east coast Given the location of high pressure to the east and the ridge over the NE Pac/trough into the SW, I'd say running up the Apps is more likely than up the coast. What you'd really like to see is a shortwave dropping down out of Canada to phase with the system and push it farther west - and given the trends this year, I'd say this is not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 That low pressure flies up the east coast. It's over GA, 6 hours later it's over the Delmarva, 6 hours later it's near Boston. Any snowcover will help with that extremely cold air advection behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 didnt jb just saw the other day that the biggest snow of the winter for the big east coast cities has already occurred? ??? JB did a special Big Dog tonight since he is out tomorrow... quick highlights: Has never seen a winter week in February before that’s coming next week…. way below normal temp’s country wide. Was looking back 50 years. Was looking at superstorms of past ’66, ’93, ‘78 Very hyped up about next week with how similar storms look. The week of all weeks of winter next week. Warm-up coming following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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