Absolute Humidity Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Interesting on hr 45-48 HRW-ARW has 850's crashing off shore with what looks like .10 - .25 in just 3 hrs. Sat. Night. Guess the ULL on GFS giving an inch or two has some merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 CTP's forecast for my location is all snow, 3-5 inches, yet just 5 miles away in Lansford (Mt Holly) it's a mix with 1-3 inches. Wonder who will end up verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This is looking more realistic than the last one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 CTP's forecast for my location is all snow, 3-5 inches, yet just 5 miles away in Lansford (Mt Holly) it's a mix with 1-3 inches. Wonder who will end up verifying. It's Feb.....time for the elevations to slightly over perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Wxsim forecast with 6z data has Snow/IP arriving by 6am tomorrow morning continuing thru 12noon with 1" of snow accum Then a mix during the PM of IP/ZR ending by evening....temps will remain below freezing in the NW Philly burbs for the entire event Looking ahead the forecast has snow arriving by midnight with Heavy Snow by Thursday morning with already 6" on the ground for the Thursday rush....still more to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It looks like this storm won't amount to much. Those with some elevation will see some snow and frz rain,there is not that much moisture to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This is looking more realistic than the last one: yeah much better.. that last one was Wxsim forecast with 6z data has Snow/IP arriving by 6am tomorrow morning continuing thru 12noon with 1" of snow accum Then a mix during the PM of IP/ZR ending by evening....temps will remain below freezing in the NW Philly burbs for the entire event Looking ahead the forecast has snow arriving by midnight with Heavy Snow by Thursday morning with already 6" on the ground for the Thursday rush....still more to come thanks for the update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Wxsim forecast with 6z data has Snow/IP arriving by 6am tomorrow morning continuing thru 12noon with 1" of snow accum Then a mix during the PM of IP/ZR ending by evening....temps will remain below freezing in the NW Philly burbs for the entire event Looking ahead the forecast has snow arriving by midnight with Heavy Snow by Thursday morning with already 6" on the ground for the Thursday rush....still more to come Do you ever get the chance to put in the EURO data at all in that, be curious to see what that shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I wish it did....but it only incorporates the latest GFS/NAM and numerous upwind advection sites ...I have asked the program's designer and he mentioned a problem with the fact that the automatic Wxsimate(which goes out to the net and downloads all the info) cannot use the European data because it does not come out hourly?? at least if my memory serves that was his explanation Paul Do you ever get the chance to put in the EURO data at all in that, be curious to see what that shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z Nam continues its light mix to rain (at best) for most of eastern PA, other than extreme NE PA during the day tomorrow..then has some upper level energy put down a period of snow Saturday evening across northern 1/2 of PA, southern NY state and southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Difference between GFS and NAM are just amazing 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Here's my thoughts for tomorrow, as of now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Here's my thoughts for tomorrow, as of now... Sounds like a good call. I think when the 850s crash we will go to wet snow, but the temp may be above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z GFS still trying to create a (atleast brief) back end thump after 00z Sun. for areas farther south than the NAM. Its not as quick bringing the 850s toward the coast on this run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Sounds like a good call. I think when the 850s crash we will go to wet snow, but the temp may be above freezing. Agreed maybe an inch is squeezed out in the Delaware Valley on the back end, with a few inches possible from the Lehigh Valley north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS Hr 42 has a nice backend thumping...but when do the backend snows actually verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS Hr 42 has a nice backend thumping...but when do the backend snows actually verify? valid question, it could occur with 850s a tad to mild for snow..........close call for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS Hr 42 has a nice backend thumping...but when do the backend snows actually verify? for central PA? Soundings for Allentown and Reading are just a sleet/rain mix followed by all rain (if taken verbatim). Freezing level is >3,000 feet at both ABE and RDG during that hour... but it is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Latest forecast from Wxsim program with 12z models Overall temps will not get above about 31.5 tomorrow here in NW Chester County and around 0.36" of precip will fall. Current Snow depth is a glacier like 12.0" with a hard ice crust A mix of Snow and sleet develop near dawn with no more than 1" of snow before changing to a ZR/IP mix...this will then continue for most of the day and end in the late evening. For those hoping for a big storm later in the week...some very good news...as the GFS has shifted the storm out to sea - as is most often the case with our bigger storms. I fully expect to see it back on the snow train by no later than 0z tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Temp profiles killing us this threat. Nice to see the 12z GFS back end the cold rush back to the coast, but will there be any wrap around precip left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DerekZ Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Winter Weather Advisory now in effect for all of PA and most of NJ except for far south coastal counties. For Philadelphia, Advisory is in effect from 1 am to 11 am. NWS is calling for a coating of snow followed by a glaze of ice on the front end, and then a little light snow on the back end. Interested to see this afternoon's AFD for all of the events in the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RkTec Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Quite a difference from yesterday's map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Quite a difference from yesterday's map. Honestly, I wish those amounts up this way were 0.0" as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Honestly, I wish those amounts up this way were 0.0" as well. lol. Eh, what's the harm in a few flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 lol. Eh, what's the harm in a few flakes. It's not the flakes, but the other crap that's expected. I still have an iceberg for a yard from Wednesday's mess. The dog can't walk without slipping and sliding all over the place and I can't even chop through it to clean it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Looks like the 00z NAM takes pretty much any chances of worthwhile snow and dumps it over the eastern Great Lakes Saturday evening... Oh well, onto bigger and better things next week (maybe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Looks like the 00z NAM takes pretty much any chances of worthwhile snow and dumps it over the eastern Great Lakes Saturday evening.. yea this system has trended less impressive every run since yesterday. My eyes are on the tues event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 yea this system has trended less impressive every run since yesterday. My eyes are on the tues event. Yup, you hinted at it yesterday. I was holding out some hope, but its gone now. Onto next week........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It's not the flakes, but the other crap that's expected. I still have an iceberg for a yard from Wednesday's mess. The dog can't walk without slipping and sliding all over the place and I can't even chop through it to clean it up. LOL. I can't believe my dogs have not broke their legs yet on the hills around my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 27.1/19 FWIW stations outside of town reporting low 20's. Looks like an other early am ice fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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