mattinpa Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 On 2/4/2011 at 2:26 AM, tombo82685 said: for your location it may be an inch if that, that may be generous. The bl is still torched. Looks like about 1 to 2 to my eyes. But it's not a big storm - rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks like the NAM wants to bring a period of moderate snow along with the passage of the s/w, after the main low has already departed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 On 2/4/2011 at 2:27 AM, mattinpa said: Looks like about 1 to 2 to my eyes. But it's not a big storm - rain or snow. hr 48 your bl is close... almost isothermal but your fighting a warm layer arounf 925-975 which is .2 to .3 above so maybe rain and snow then going over to snow as it ends edit: it looks like your right per sv snow maps, it has you in 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 the sv snow maps has from del river west and north atleast 2 inches..with the lehigh valley over 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Wxsim off old 18z runs has a light snow/ip mix up starting at around 230am thru about 1030am on Saturday (1.0" snow/IP) then around .07" of ZR and then back to snow at 5pm with about a half-inch. There is another light event on Monday night. Of more interest is the Moderate Snow that quickly becomes heavy on Wednesday afternoon with the potential megastorm...Wxsim indicates 5" by 6pm Wednesday with heavy snow falling at the end of its forecast window Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 heres sv snowfall map from the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 On 2/4/2011 at 2:36 AM, ChescoPaWxman said: Wxsim off old 18z runs has a light snow/ip mix up starting at around 230am thru about 1030am on Saturday (1.0" snow/IP) then around .07" of ZR and then back to snow at 5pm with about a half-inch. There is another light event on Monday night. Of more interest is the Moderate Snow that quickly becomes heavy on Wednesday afternoon with the potential megastorm...Wxsim indicates 5" by 6pm Wednesday with heavy snow falling at the end of its forecast window Paul Keep us posted , thanks Paul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 On 2/4/2011 at 2:42 AM, tombo82685 said: heres sv snowfall map from the nam That may be as good as it gets based on temperatures in the lower levels. Pretty much hoping for the slushy inch or two toward sunset Saturday as the precip. winds down. From I-78-ish northward, maybe several slushy inches. Lets see what the steadier (until 18z) GFS shows in the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 On 2/4/2011 at 2:48 AM, Parsley said: That may be as good as it gets based on temperatures in the lower levels. Pretty much hoping for the slushy inch or two toward sunset Saturday as the precip. winds down. From I-78-ish northward, maybe several slushy inches. Lets see what the steadier (until 18z) GFS shows in the next hour. i would like to see the clown maps. The sv maps are pretty weird sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Does this still come in as a light wintry mix prior to 12z Saturday? Appears that way on the NAM for areas just north and west of PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 yea like i figured the vista maps are a little to bullish...the soundings dont indicate that much snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Bummer, but believable. Atleast someone (NE PA) could see something good out of this based on that NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 According to the 0z NAm, for the immediate Philly burbs and the city itself, seems like a light snow (coating maybe) to rain to some snow/sleet on the backside. Prob not amounting to much. I feel pretty confident with that solution. No surprises with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 On 2/4/2011 at 2:56 AM, tombo82685 said: yea like i figured the vista maps are a little to bullish...the soundings dont indicate that much snow To me that seems too little - I can't see there being no snow depth here. The SV maps could be just as right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 On 2/4/2011 at 3:06 AM, mattinpa said: To me that seems too little - I can't see there being no snow depth here. The SV maps could be just as right. ehh, with snow ratios arguing for a wet snow type event, i could see those clown maps being more in line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 On 2/4/2011 at 3:08 AM, irishbri74 said: ehh, with snow ratios arguing for a wet snow type event, i could see those clown maps being more in line. I guess it could stick differently depending on the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Mm...I enjoy me a rainstorm in the heart of winter...it'll help wash the crap off my car looks like the only hope of snow for the city and immediate areas is that PVA that passes over the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 On 2/4/2011 at 3:06 AM, mattinpa said: To me that seems too little - I can't see there being no snow depth here. The SV maps could be just as right. it makes perfect sense, the soundings show a very very marginal event for snow...its more rain and snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I learned a couple weeks ago not trust SV snow maps, they are off and over zealous for sure. some times they even will show something for one time, it disapears then next frame or shrinks and the comes back the next frame (tho this is mainly with the GFS) and its not the standard erasing it does. Its also way cold. I think it incorporates ice into its snowfall maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 On 2/4/2011 at 3:05 AM, Noreaster07 said: I thought the NAM hinted at freezing rain at the onset. Lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 On 2/4/2011 at 3:12 AM, Noreaster07 said: I learned a couple weeks ago not trust SV snow maps, they are off and over zealous for sure. some times they even will show something for one time, it disapears then next frame pr shrinks and the comes back the next frame (tho this is mainly with the GFS) and its not the standard erasing it does. Its also way cold. I think it incorporates ice into its snowfall maps yea i think it incorporates sleet into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 On 2/4/2011 at 3:13 AM, tombo82685 said: yea i think it incorporates sleet into it. what are you thinkin for this one? 1 to 2 max? that mid-level trough as the storm pushes well NE may surprise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 On 2/4/2011 at 3:15 AM, Yes_Probably_Maybe_No said: what are you thinkin for this one? 1 to 2 max? that mid-level trough as the storm pushes well NE may surprise... the storm its self is dead, the only shot we have is with what you said. i still think the bl has issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 00z RGEM not a pretty picture. Brings warm air all the way into NE PA with mixing issues (probably somewhat overdone). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 On 2/4/2011 at 3:38 AM, Parsley said: 00z RGEM not a pretty picture. Brings warm air all the way into NE PA with mixing issues. the 0z gfs sums it up at hr 24, there is really no cold air to be found in the US, the coldest temps in relation to 850s are in tx, ok, ark and new england..that right there tells you something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 On 2/4/2011 at 3:42 AM, tombo82685 said: the 0z gfs sums it up at hr 24, there is really no cold air to be found in the US, the coldest temps in relation to 850s are in tx, ok, ark and new england..that right there tells you something Texarkana FTW! Wow, the lack of cold air countrywide is shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 gfs actually has some snow for the area mainly north and west of i95 with that ull sat night. Right now that looks to be the best shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 On 2/4/2011 at 3:57 AM, tombo82685 said: gfs actually has some snow for the area mainly north and west of i95 with that ull sat night. Right now that looks to be the best shot. Yeah I still think that ULL could give us a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Great more rain. Lucky for those north and west of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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