Parsley Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Its going to be tough to get all the elements to fall just in the right place for a solid light to moderate snowfall in the area........odds favor NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looks like snow to slop/rain...maybe ending as a bit of snow for NW burbs of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Its going to be tough to get all the elements to fall just in the right place for a solid light to moderate snowfall in the area........odds favor NE PA. Light-moderate snowfall is doable as the low moves NE - but it could be a sloppy type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 The 12z GEM definetely gives us more hope, I think somewhere in the eastern 1/2 of PA could make out ok with this (if they are lucky). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 For what its worth, the 18z NAM showing a compact, stronger area of low pressure by 0z Sun just off the coast on NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 850s crashing toward the coast between 48-54 hours, but it may be a little to late in terms of timing for SE PA. south Jersey and DE. NE PA, looks good on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Oh interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Oh interesting. Looking good AR, you now have a Watch! maybe the love will come down my way 15 mins south of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Oh interesting. Yup, between the 18z NAM, the 12z GEM and the close call on the GFS it has been showing it could be interesting Saturday,especially for the snow starved NE portion of PA. 51 hour NAM 54 hour NAM I wish it was a touch colder at the surface on these 2 maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 305 PM EST THU FEB 3 2011 ...A WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... .LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE QUICKLY OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. NJZ001-PAZ054-055-041000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0005.110205T0900Z-110206T0300Z/ SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG 305 PM EST THU FEB 3 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS: 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. * TIMING: SNOW WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE STARTING TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AS ROADS BECOME SNOW COVERED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ MEOLA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 There you go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 350 PM EST THU FEB 3 2011 NJZ007>010-PAZ060>062-067>069-042100- WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER- MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- 350 PM EST THU FEB 3 2011 A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AND SOME LIGHT ICING IS POSSIBLE ++++++++++++ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER- SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- 350 PM EST THU FEB 3 2011 A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND ICE IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO PLAIN RAIN ON SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yup, between the 18z NAM, the 12z GEM and the close call on the GFS it has been showing it could be interesting Saturday,especially for the snow starved NE portion of PA. Lehigh Valley and Poconos look to get a pretty decent snow event. It's a fairly close call for our area...but still looks more wet than white. Wouldn't rule out an inch or two of wet snow at the end of the event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 This is a good run for the Poconos and 81. I'm hoping they get jackpotted on this storm...it's now their turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Lehigh Valley and Poconos look to get a pretty decent snow event. It's a fairly close call for our area...but still looks more wet than white. Wouldn't rule out an inch or two of wet snow at the end of the event here. If the slop ends as 1-3" of snow in our neck of the woods I'd consider it a success. The trends in general have been more positive the past 24 hours, that's fore sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Mt. Holly's first look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Mt. Holly's first look. Interesting cutoff between 3.5+ inches of snow and < 1 inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 (a poor man's 2/5/01 redux?) http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/020501storm/020501snowmap.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Interesting cutoff between 3.5+ inches of snow and < 1 inch of snow. Wow, interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 (a poor man's 2/5/01 redux?) http://www.erh.noaa....0501snowmap.jpg That is a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 That is a possibility. I doubt we'll get 7-9" but the synoptic is similar...that was a rain to snow event. IIRC, that was the epic commute from hell for many in the Delaware Valley. Some still talk about 4 hour drives home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 If the slop ends as 1-3" of snow in our neck of the woods I'd consider it a success. The trends in general have been more positive the past 24 hours, that's fore sure. Yeah, definitely more frozen precip wqhen the 850s crash through on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I doubt we'll get 7-9" but the synoptic is similar...that was a rain to snow event. IIRC, that was the epic commute from hell for many in the Delaware Valley. Some still talk about 4 hour drives home. That event caught a lot of people off guard, as the forecasts the morning of Feb 5, 2001 called for rain most of the day...changing to snow before ending late afternoon or early evening. Accumulations were supposed to be 2" or less across the Philly area (maybe a bit more in the Lehigh Valley). Rain changed to snow WAY earlier than expected and most of the Philly burbs got 8 to 18 inches of snow. A friend of mine who works in Horsham and lives in Quakertown had a 7 hour evening commute. My wife's usual 25 minutes commute took over 3 hours that evening. Crazy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Hopefully this shifts about 30-50 miles SE, a 18z NAM/12z GFS compromise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 That event caught a lot of people off guard, as the forecasts the morning of Feb 5, 2001 called for rain most of the day...changing to snow before ending late afternoon or early evening. Accumulations were supposed to be 2" or less across the Philly area (maybe a bit more in the Lehigh Valley). Rain changed to snow WAY earlier than expected and most of the Philly burbs got 8 to 18 inches of snow. A friend of mine who works in Horsham and lives in Quakertown had a 7 hour evening commute. My wife's usual 25 minutes commute took over 3 hours that evening. Crazy stuff. I'll never forget that day. It took me 5 or 6 hours to get 9 miles from my work (near the King of Prussia Mall) to my home at the time in Newtown Square.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 That event caught a lot of people off guard, as the forecasts the morning of Feb 5, 2001 called for rain most of the day...changing to snow before ending late afternoon or early evening. Accumulations were supposed to be 2" or less across the Philly area (maybe a bit more in the Lehigh Valley). Rain changed to snow WAY earlier than expected and most of the Philly burbs got 8 to 18 inches of snow. A friend of mine who works in Horsham and lives in Quakertown had a 7 hour evening commute. My wife's usual 25 minutes commute took over 3 hours that evening. Crazy stuff. I wasn't in town for that one but couldn't believe what I heard from that storm. That was kinda like our 1/25/00 on steroids... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Interesting cutoff between 3.5+ inches of snow and < 1 inch of snow. Rain/snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 wow what a clusterf*** lol lots of activity: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Very interesting. NE PA posters, time to get excited!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 18z GFS Saturday.......valid 7pm Saturday. Not as organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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