Guest Patrick Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Interesting analog. IIRC, that was a NYC special, with the immediate metro area picking up about 10". This winter seems to favor CNJ. Until an analog appears that shows Earthlight in the jackpot zone, we should probably throw it out Can someone fix the spelling of the word "February" in this thread title? That irks me almost as much as people referring to sleet as "hail." =) For the weenie fuel...the #1 analog for the 500mb pattern prior to the potential event on the 8th on CIPS at 96 hours is 1/28/04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Interesting analog. IIRC, that was a NYC special, with the immediate metro area picking up about 10". This winter seems to favor CNJ. Until an analog appears that shows Earthlight in the jackpot zone, we should probably throw it out Can someone fix the spelling of the word "February" in this thread title? That irks me almost as much as people referring to sleet as "hail." =) How about Valentimes Day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 6z gfs, i guess its a good sign the storm is further SE than 00z, and not NW like the euro. Tracks it over the benchmark, Nice hit for the big cities. Im just looking for consisntency in the models with a storm off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 #1 120 hr analog is now 96 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=120&flg=new&map=COSN&sort=FINAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 #1 120 hr analog is now 96 http://www.eas.slu.e...COSN&sort=FINAL That is the central US, not the east coast, and these analogues are very sketchy that far out. They change every run. This setup is nothing like 96 as were all the other threats you keep bringing this analogue up for. That truly was a once in a century event. Here is the NARR page and you can see just how unique that was and how this setup is nothing like that. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1996/us0107.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 #1 120 hr analog is now 96 http://www.eas.slu.e...COSN&sort=FINAL And its good to start seeing some hits on the analogs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 #1 120 hr analog is now 96 http://www.eas.slu.e...COSN&sort=FINAL I don't see that at all at H500... just doesn't cutoff; this is going to be a fast mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I don't see that at all at H500... just doesn't cutoff; this is going to be a fast mover. Its a terrible analogue for the east coast which is why it doesnt show up at all on the EC analogues, only the midwest. And before people start talking about 93, it doesnt look anything like that either. Here is 93, totally different. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1993/us0313.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 That low five days from now is going to have a large impact on the system in question. We could get some blocking out of it and that might induce a slower solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Its a terrible analogue for the east coast which is why it doesnt show up at all on the EC analogues, only the midwest. And before people start talking about 93, it doesnt look anything like that either. Here is 93, totally different. http://www.meteo.psu...1993/us0313.php 96 may not show up over the east but there are alot of very nice events which do. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=120&flg=new&map=COSN&sort=FINAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Its a terrible analogue for the east coast which is why it doesnt show up at all on the EC analogues, only the midwest. And before people start talking about 93, it doesnt look anything like that either. Here is 93, totally different. FWIW - That comparison started with the 00Z GFS, I think it was just in terms of storm impact and not the exact solution. 00Z GFS 1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z gfs is going to be further southeast with this storm threat in future frames..polar vortex is oriented in a way that has lower heights across se Canada at 126hrs...and effectively what looks like -NAO ridging now. Also trough is much broader Will be a big southern snow storm this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z gfs supresses the storm, NC snowstorm this run, this is what i wanted to see. Much more blockiness and confluence over SE canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It looks like its rushing the southern stream energy too much compared to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Confusing run....not sure if the changes were in our favor or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It looks like its rushing the southern stream energy too much compared to the other models. the big difference this run is the orientation of the Polar vortex in Canada. it is elongated west to east from SE Canada and there is essentially -NAO ridging now. 12z GFS hr 132 vs. 00z 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 the big difference this run is the orientation of the Polar vortex in Canada. it is elongated west to east from SE Canada and there is essentially -NAO ridging now. 12z GFS hr 132 vs. 00z 144 You can see the NAM hanging more energy back at 84 hrs off the PAC NW Coastline compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Can a met chime in, was this run an improvement in the overall setup or did the chicken totally fly the coop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Can a met chime in, was this run an improvement in the overall setup or did the chicken totally fly the coop? Well I am no met but I'd rather the GFS show this than a cutter/hugger/apps runner that floods the entire region with rain. It does look as there is improvement downstream with the NAO as well as in the amount of confluence to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 For a personal note will either the storm on the 7-8 or 9-11 threat, cause me to have issues getting out of LGA on a flight to florida (730am) on the 9th? thanks to all Peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 hr 102 on the 12z euro really blows up that storm for tue.....somthing the 00z euro did not do...lets see how this helps us for the late week system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 LOL Your joking right? Try flipping a coin 1000 times. Heads being yes, tails being no to find your answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 hr 120 low in sw tx.......that storm really blew up over new founland....prob going to help us out here comparing hr 126 with the 12z gfs its slower with the energy ejecting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 hr 132 low in se tx.....good snowstorm going on for ok/southern kansas/nw arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 at 150 over running into NYC. Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 hr 144 is not as amp up as the 00z run was...low over the gulf coast.....looks like a great over running set-up also... hr 150 low in western GA......light snow up to nyc....mod up to dc...850's and surface along the nc/va boarder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I wonder how much snow Tulsa, OK and OKC will end up having this winter... maybe they'll break records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This run is going to make a lot of people happier. Mod snow into philly and and dc at hour 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 hr 156 low in eastern sc...heavy snow up to dc....mod up to ttn...still light snow in nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 162 mod to heavy snow into NYC. Long Island really getting pounded. Very cold solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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