earthlight Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 156 hours it's into the TN Valley but anybody N of DC is snowing at that hour with precip up to NYC. Trying to transfer to the coast, but it's too wrapped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 1004mb now over Northern AL at 150 hrs. H5 solution is amplified..it's snowing all the way back into Central IL at that hour. is it me, or at 144, does it look like it wants to phase the southernm polar and artic jet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 hr 156 850's up to acy...surface along 95...some over running light snow...low it in eastern tenn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Surface low is near or west of DCA at 162 hrs. More freezing rain for areas N+W of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 seems like the lack of a bomb on the 8th has caused this storm to amplify further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Another solution, much more amplified it seems and a different evolution than the GFS with the coastal transfer. hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Surface low is near or west of DCA at 162 hrs. More freezing rain for areas N+W of the city. Looks like snow to rain with the Euro for I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 hr 162 apps runner....rain from dobbs ferry-south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 hr 162 apps runner....rain from dobbs ferry-south lol this solution is definitely possible with the pattern in place, a slight variation and we can get a coastal or apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 EC DAY 7: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Seems like its going to depend on track (as always) but.... There is a ton of cold air supply with the phasing of the PV. If its anywhere off the coast its gonna snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 The bomb from 96-108 hours is the savior here...the PV is not positioned well and this would typically be an inland or coastal hugger but if the pattern goes as shown this should be a benchmark track or slightly west because that bomb which blows up before it does not allow the trough to amplify enough to force the storm to go inland...if we lose that storm at 96-108 however the 2nd event probably at least tracks along the coast. lol this solution is definitely possible with the pattern in place, a slight variation and we can get a coastal or apps runner. Snowgoose hit this on the head for the gfs and the euro does the exact opposite.....does not bomb out that 96 hr storm....such allows the end of the week threat to amplify earlier, such we get a inland runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The Euro looks alot like the 1993 blizzard...of course I doubt anything of that magnitude forms, although all models seem to indicate a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 hr 162 apps runner....rain from dobbs ferry-south It looks as if we should switch back to snow as the low passes us, at least taking a glance at the MSLP charts and having seen these type of events play out before. 0z ECM, verbatim, is snow-->ice-->rain for the NW suburbs, probably just snow-->rain for the big cities. Could be a nasty situation here, but I'll bet the ECM is too warm as it was for the last coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It's sort of irrelevant at this point, but how much QPF does the ECM show here? How much is frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Snowgoose hit this on the head for the gfs and the euro does the exact opposite.....does not bomb out that 96 hr storm....such allows the end of the week threat to amplify earlier, such we get a inland runner The Euro and GEM are also diving the energy from 108-120 out west more southerly, the GFS is more progressive with it, given the pattern this winter I have to believe the GFS idea is more correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Just wanted to mention on how the euro handles the second storm which would become our 50/50 block. From 120hr to 132, it looks double barreled and weak and strung out well to the NE of Maine. Not saying its wrong but that is going to be huge to watch in future runs..Because everything else looks the same, big time amplification over the ms valley along with a juiced up miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dale803 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 seems like everyone abandoned the philly thread...i have to come to this thread to find out anything...SIGH.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks like the 12/26/2010 storm to me but moving faster. Looks like 60 mph winds on LI with 4-8 hours of blinding white out. 10-14" from GFS. Another Blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Ok, so the Euro is going to go along with seasonal trends and take this up the Apps? Right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This was a very astute post as I believe the Euro doesn't show the 96 hr storm and thus bring the real even inland. The bomb from 96-108 hours is the savior here...the PV is not positioned well and this would typically be an inland or coastal hugger but if the pattern goes as shown this should be a benchmark track or slightly west because that bomb which blows up before it does not allow the trough to amplify enough to force the storm to go inland...if we lose that storm at 96-108 however the 2nd event probably at least tracks along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 None of the analogs at 120 hours indicate an inland snowstorm...note that these were all indicating inland storms last event from day 5 onward...the previous system however they were way off until inside 3 days... http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=120&flg=new&map=COSN&sort=FINAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What did euro ens show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 None of the analogs at 120 hours indicate an inland snowstorm...note that these were all indicating inland storms last event from day 5 onward...the previous system however they were way off until inside 3 days... http://www.eas.slu.e...COSN&sort=FINAL 1/6-9/1988 storm = NYC bad luck with snowstorms in a nutshell from 1983-1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Not surprising that none of the analogs for the GFS would show an inland snowstorm considering how progressive it is with the shortwave in the SW US. ECMWF bias of keeping shortwaves in the SW US for too long has to be considered. The 0z UKMET, GGEM, GFS, GFS ensemble are all substantially faster than the ECMWF while this system is in the SW US and southern Plains, which leads to later phasing. None of the analogs at 120 hours indicate an inland snowstorm...note that these were all indicating inland storms last event from day 5 onward...the previous system however they were way off until inside 3 days... http://www.eas.slu.e...COSN&sort=FINAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 1/6-9/1988 storm = NYC bad luck with snowstorms in a nutshell from 1983-1993 I never realized how well most places around the region did in that storm...its amazing how that 10 year period was not really as bad as it might seem, its just that every event found a way to screw NYC...the only real overperforming events were 12/28/90 and 2/26/91...other than that it seemed everything else either did not occur or produced less than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 1/22/87 also overperformed. Forecast was for 1-3" with a quick change to rain; ended up with 8-11" and a change to freezing rain in the last few hours of the storm in NYC. I never realized how well most places around the region did in that storm...its amazing how that 10 year period was not really as bad as it might seem, its just that every event found a way to screw NYC...the only real overperforming events were 12/28/90 and 2/26/91...other than that it seemed everything else either did not occur or produced less than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 ECMWF has a storm on Mon-Tue, but it's a lot weaker and the trough doesn't dig nearly as much as the GFS/NAM/GGEM show. This was a very astute post as I believe the Euro doesn't show the 96 hr storm and thus bring the real even inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 ECMWF has a storm on Mon-Tue, but it's a lot weaker and the trough doesn't dig nearly as much as the GFS/NAM/GGEM show. For the weenie fuel...the #1 analog for the 500mb pattern prior to the potential event on the 8th on CIPS at 96 hours is 1/28/04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I never realized how well most places around the region did in that storm...its amazing how that 10 year period was not really as bad as it might seem, its just that every event found a way to screw NYC...the only real overperforming events were 12/28/90 and 2/26/91...other than that it seemed everything else either did not occur or produced less than forecast. Yup, I know in central Jersey it was not too bad at all actually. Almost every winter in that decade save the last 2 featured over 20" of snow and there was over 50 in the 86-87 winter for Monmouth county. NYC somehow managed no 6" snowfalls, but there were plenty of widespread 6"+ events in areas surrounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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