Kaner587 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The Arctic floodgates open up after that storm. -20C 850 temps around the Tri-State. long range also looks like we get a reprieve from arctic cold after a couple days, but no sustained above normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The 0z GFS is extremely fast, which prevents excessive QPF. The SLP moves from near Virginia Beach to Block Island in 6 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The 0z GFS is extremely fast, which prevents excessive QPF. The SLP moves from near Virginia Beach to Block Island in 6 hours! if it's slow, we get rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The 0z GFS is extremely fast, which prevents excessive QPF. The SLP moves from near Virginia Beach to Block Island in 6 hours! And appears to deepen it 18mb in that same time frame. Insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Cool quote from twitter in discussion with baroclinic_instability @nymetrowx Looks like Superstorm 1993 in terms of the massive, out of this world jet coupling as well as the perfect phase with the PV. Follow us at @nymetrowx and baro at @PV_Anomaly. Best meteorologist I know...not even really close ,either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The 0z GFS is extremely fast, which prevents excessive QPF. The SLP moves from near Virginia Beach to Block Island in 6 hours! 1.25" of qpf on the GFS is pretty excessive imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 if it's slow, we get rain I'm not sure it's quite that simple, but I see the risk you're referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Cool quote from twitter in discussion with baroclinic_instability @nymetrowx Looks like Superstorm 1993 in terms of the massive, out of this world jet coupling as well as the perfect phase with the PV. Follow us at @nymetrowx and baro at @PV_Anomaly. Best meteorologist I know...not even really close ,either. earthlight see my post from earlier....I'm happy I'm finally getting a hang of this meteorology stuff "I can't seem to figure out the re-analysis website but just going off maps on rays site and this other website that documents phasing storms, the set up wrt to ridge axis, s/w positioning and PV location, this threat definitely has MAJOR similarities to 1993. There I said it. Thing is, it looks like in this case the PV is in a better more southeasterly position (at least on the 12z GFS) and the atlantic looks better. I also don't see triple phase potential with this but everything minus the 3rd s/w looks the same or even better. Can someone post the re-analysis maps of the superstorm? " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Cool quote from twitter in discussion with baroclinic_instability @nymetrowx Looks like Superstorm 1993 in terms of the massive, out of this world jet coupling as well as the perfect phase with the PV. Follow us at @nymetrowx and baro at @PV_Anomaly. Best meteorologist I know...not even really close ,either. It's gonna be another long week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Mid-level center forms over NNE, which slows the SLP near eastern Maine. This solution is fine as is, but it's not going to remain like this. If a mid-level center forms earlier, possibly in association with a slightly deeper, more neg tilted trof, near the mid-atlantic coast, the duration and intensity of this storm near our latitude could increase in magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 ggem 144 - 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 My thoughts on the storm next week and likely pattern change thereafter... http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/336 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 1.25" of qpf on the GFS is pretty excessive imo Not in relation to this storm's parameters. Nearly all of our QPF falls in about 10 hours as the SLP deepens nearly 30mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 My thoughts on the storm next week and likely pattern change thereafter... http://www.lightinth...om/archives/336 great stuff, so you think it wont amplify early enough to get a lakes cutter or apps runner? Seems like you're favoring a hugger or a track inside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 great stuff, so you think it wont amplify early enough to get a lakes cutter or apps runner? Seems like you're favoring a hugger or a track inside the benchmark. Thanks! And yes you interpretted correctly, right now I like the idea of the sfc low tracking close to the coast. I'd like to see the Western ridge axis further east, as that would help keep the s/w a bit weaker/more suppressed until we want it to bomb. But speed is also a factor, and the slower it is, the more it's likely to wind up -- and if it gets too intense, the best snows will probably be up the Appalachains. We'll see how it goes. I'm definitely excited about the threat, but there's certainly concern for pcpn type issues along I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Prob been mentioned before, but DT's website makes some valid points as to why we should be wary of another 1/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Prob been mentioned before, but DT's website makes some valid points as to why we should be wary of another 1/28 There isnt any SE ridge or massive western trough though this time which should mean there would at least be a chance for front end snows and probably no concerns for a massive ice storm anywhere in this setup..if this did go to the west it would just be a snow to rain deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Prob been mentioned before, but DT's website makes some valid points as to why we should be wary of another 1/28 Do you/he mean 2/1 - 2/2? 1/28 was last Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I wouldn't be so quick to write this one off in terms of "If it's slower, more amplified its going to cut west and a fast hit is our only chance at a storm." Once that low at the 4-5 day range is properly resolved I feel it will more than likely end up as a 50/50 and promote blocking. If that's the case, our low might cut off and if that happens, watch out. Sure we don't have a great high pressure locked in with good blocking over Greenland but we will once again find a way to get it done without the most idea conditions. KU storm in the making. Legitimate MECS at 7-9 days out and given the variability of the models this year, the final setup will probably be very different than whats currently being depicted, but the storm will likely still be there. Wouldn't be suprised to see the models, particularly the GFS loose this one all together in a few days only to bring it back. Seems like a running theme this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The Euro could be trying to cook up something for the Feb 7/8 threat. Trof axis and amplitude similar to GFS at Day 3 but possibly a bit sharper with a stronger southern stream vortmax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 hr 120 the low is further south...brings back the ok and arkansas snowstorm...prob gets frozen close to dallas...why i say this is the nfl is up in arms about colder weather site for super bowel.....but look what happen in dallas....they are expected to get 2 inches tonight also..what a week for winter weather in dallas...sorry for ot Remember, they had a foot for the NBA All-Star weekend last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The Euro could be trying to cook up something for the Feb 7/8 threat. Trof axis and amplitude similar to GFS at Day 3 but possibly a bit sharper with a stronger southern stream vortmax. Is someone doing the Euro tonight? We've got three threats on the table, and no one is discussing the ECM it seems.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 First storm is warm, closer to the coast...second storm is close but still not there yet. Third storm, still coming. I'll give QPF/etc details for storm#1 if anybody requests Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Mid-level center forms over NNE, which slows the SLP near eastern Maine. This solution is fine as is, but it's not going to remain like this. If a mid-level center forms earlier, possibly in association with a slightly deeper, more neg tilted trof, near the mid-atlantic coast, the duration and intensity of this storm near our latitude could increase in magnitude. Speak for yourself However, if this does end up like the '93 monster I really won't care even if I get all rain. Just seeing a storm play out like that would be awesome. I remember the 93 storm, it was wicked, but didn't that one have a tropical influence as well? It's not fresh in my memory, I was PO'd at that time that I got a lot of rain, but I appreciate historical events much more now. One thing is for sure, something big is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 So far it's much faster with the second event...wow. Overrunning precipitation already into MO at 126 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looking mighty amplified at 144..one thing's for sure, we have a major Gulf Low on our hands. 1004mb over LA at 144 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 The trough is further west on the euro then the gfs...also it does not bomb that low for the mon-tue event.....also higher hgts.....hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 The trough is further west on the euro then the gfs...also it does not bomb that low for the mon-tue event.....also higher hgts.....hr 144 yep going to cut inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 1004mb now over Northern AL at 150 hrs. H5 solution is amplified..it's snowing all the way back into Central IL at that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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