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Febuary 9-11 threat


Allsnow

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It's funny to see numerous weenie posts of "this pattern is not conducive for a big East Coast storm."

I think a lot of people who post in this sub-forum are extremely labile in terms of their expectations. Example? That one run of the 00z NAM prior to Jan 26th and 27th causing hysteria among a small subset of posters. Point being is that the majority of non-weenies have the ability to realize that this is not a perfect pattern, and like we've seen so much this winter, things will definitely have to go in our favor, but the potential is definitely there. Earthlights post explains this perfectly, and regardless of whether someone like jetski (who is expecting a flooding rainstorm) agrees or disagrees, it is easy to see that the players are on the field. This WILL be a big storm for someone. I had said this before so I won't completely repeat what I said but obviously the major factors at the moment suggest that under normal conditions this storm is more likely to be an inland snowstorm. Two caveats to that statement? This winter is far from a "normal" winter where cutters turn into ice storms and run of the mill fast moving systems dump a foot and a half over large areas. The other thing is that it doesn't look like we'll have to worry about the antecedent airmass, because that will be plenty cold. So this potential storm definitely has a couple tricks up its sleeve and anywhere from a line drawn from cleveland southwest to northern lousiana eastward should definitely keep the guard up for a major system. The only reason why I say cleveland and not points further west is because while this may turn into a coastal hugger or maybe even the rare apps cutter this is not likely to cut any further west than that unless the modeling is completely off in its 500mb depiction.

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It's funny to see numerous weenie posts of "this pattern is not conducive for a big East Coast storm."

Because they read the KU book and for example, December 26-27th 2010 had all the classic features for a historic east coast snowstorm, February 5-6th 2010 had all the classic features. BUT, there are some storms take February 1983 and February 2003 that did not have the uber block, nor did January 1996 blizzard, did not have the super blocking scheme; nor did it have the active subtopical jet like oh, say, February 2010 KU events.

Its not a linear to find the perfect setup EACH and EVERY TIME; because IMO, there isn't any. The closest to a perfect setup at H500 for example, IMO, is January 1996; but February 2010, February 1978 were awesome looking also at H5.

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I can't seem to figure out the re-analysis website but just going off maps on rays site and this other website that documents phasing storms, the set up wrt to ridge axis, s/w positioning and PV location, this threat definitely has MAJOR similarities to 1993. There I said it. Thing is, it looks like in this case the PV is in a better more southeasterly position (at least on the 12z GFS) and the atlantic looks better. I also don't see triple phase potential with this but everything minus the 3rd s/w looks the same or even better. Can someone post the re-analysis maps of the superstorm?

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I can't seem to figure out the re-analysis website but just going off maps on rays site and this other website that documents phasing storms, the set up wrt to ridge axis, s/w positioning and PV location, this threat definitely has MAJOR similarities to 1993. There I said it. Thing is, it looks like in this case the PV is in a better more southeasterly position (at least on the 12z GFS) and the atlantic looks better. I also don't see triple phase potential with this but everything minus the 3rd s/w looks the same or even better. Can someone post the re-analysis maps of the superstorm?

I was actually going to say this, it definitely has similarities to it.

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hr 120 the low is further south...brings back the ok and arkansas snowstorm...prob gets frozen close to dallas...why i say this is the nfl is up in arms about colder weather site for super bowel.....but look what happen in dallas....they are expected to get 2 inches tonight also..what a week for winter weather in dallas...sorry for ot

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The bomb from 96-108 hours is the savior here...the PV is not positioned well and this would typically be an inland or coastal hugger but if the pattern goes as shown this should be a benchmark track or slightly west because that bomb which blows up before it does not allow the trough to amplify enough to force the storm to go inland...if we lose that storm at 96-108 however the 2nd event probably at least tracks along the coast.

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couple things I noticed...first of all, the placement of the PV is too far west to allow for a phase any earlier than it did. Any earlier of a phase and this thing gets tugged west. So that means that if the PV is just a little further east, and the s/w rotating down out of canada is a little faster (which is a definite possibility since the northern stream tends to be faster than normal in La Nina's) then we could have a MONSTER on our hands. Until then this is definitely just GFS eye candy.

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The bomb from 96-108 hours is the savior here...the PV is not positioned well and this would typically be an inland or coastal hugger but if the pattern goes as shown this should be a benchmark track or slightly west because that bomb which bilows up before it does not allow the trough to amplify enough to force the storm to go inland...if we lose that storm at 96-108 however the 2nd event probably at least tracks along the coast.

yeah, the GFS turns the s/w that comes around Monday into a monster 940 mb low, which would act as a pseudo 50-50 low for our potential MECS. We should get a good idea on how amplified that first s/w will be around Sunday 00z when it will be in a data rich region.

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