rossi Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 wow, only thing i take from this run literally..Euro has the big storm, and there is cold air to be worked with. Precip types mean nothing. Best statement of the thread!!! Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Any QPF numbers yet Tombo? How does SE Canada look vs 00z? what you mean se canada? qpf looks to be 1-1.5 for the cities.. with .75-1 for north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 BIG + the Euro has a storm at this point. Many models on board. As mentioned... iron out precip. types later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 You were right when you said earlier, the set up is really marginal for this. A small change in track makes for a large difference, but unless we get a strong high to our north, keeping it all snow will be difficult. I think its safe to say that those details will get worked out later. If you ask me, all the models have been pretty poor with canadian features all winter long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 what you mean se canada? qpf looks to be 1-1.5 for the cities.. with .75-1 for north and west Is there a better defined high in South East Canada or is it non-existent, weak like the GFS showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Is there a better defined high in South East Canada or is it non-existent, weak like the GFS showed? non existent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I love my location for this season so far, I've been far enough west to remain almost 100% frozen with every event so far yet far enough east to be out of the "screw zone". Even caught some of that epic CCB on 12/26. I'm loving where were at for this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 euro long range builds an east based nao and keeps the northeast and n mid atl cold while the middle of the country is warmer.. with the pv over hudson bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The track seemed to be west of the GFS. That made a difference in all snow vs. mix.. anyway, the trend seems to be colder and not warmer for these storms.The Tue-Wed satorm was more than 1/2 ice here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The track seemed to be west of the GFS. That made a difference in all snow vs. mix.. anyway, the trend seems to be colder and not warmer for these storms.The Tue-Wed satorm was more than 1/2 ice here. Agree every major storm we have had the Euro has been warm/rain only to come east. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Agree every majot storm we have had the Euro has been warm/rain only to come east. Rossi Yes sir, I was reading the NE thread and this seems to be a good consensus right now. Meaning the euro has been showing warmer solutions in this timeframe only to turn colder in future runs. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yes sir, I was reading the NE thread and this seems to be a good consensus right now. Meaning the euro has been showing warmer solutions in this timeframe only to turn colder in future runs. We shall see. However, there was moe high latitude blocking for the previous storms except for the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Give the Euro some time please. The fact that the models are deepening this system well before it reaches our area is a very good sign. The storm track looks great if we can get a better placed high. If the season trends are any indication. The Euro will remain on the amplified warmer camp of solutions and the GFS will probably try to string this out and at some point, completely miss the phase, and pass the wave OTS 3-400 miles to our south. Agreement of this magnitude at this range is almost too good to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Sorta silly to worry about any model solutions right now, however, if the GEFS is correct, the -AO and a block over the top of greenland into the scandanavian area combined with the vortex in eastern canafa may be enough to keep this thing from cutting or going too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 HPC says no reason to get excited on the coast, this will end up as a cutter. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 226 PM EST THU FEB 03 2011 VALID 12Z SUN FEB 06 2011 - 12Z THU FEB 10 2011 THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN PACIFIC RIDGE/ERN NOAM TROF OVER THE NEXT 9 SAYS...WHICH BEGINS TO FLATTEN A BIT IN ABOUT A WEEK WITH THE BEGINNING OF A NEW LOW LATITUDE TROF ALONG 140W IN THE ERN PACIFIC. FROM THE LARGE SCALE PERSPECTIVE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD/DEEP MEAN TROF COVERING MOST OF NOAM DURING THE PERIOD. MODALS CLUSTER REASONABLY WELL ON MOVING A PRIMARY LOW ACROSS THE NERN CONUS DAYS SUN/MON 3-4...THOUGH THEY DIFFER IN THEIR DEPICTION OF ASSOCIATED OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT LATE MON WITH A BLEND OFFSHORE THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ERN PAC/WEST COAST PATTERN FROM DAY 5 ONWARD. ENSEMBLES SHOW THE SHARPENING OF AN ERN PACIFIC RIDGE S OF ALASKA TUE...AND THE RAPID WEAKENING OF THAT SAME RIDGE TOWARDS THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THESE ARE SIGNALS INDICATING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE NERN PACIFIC DAY 5 AND BEYOND. UPDATED PRELIM PROGS HAD INCORPORATED A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF THE LATEST ECMWF MEAN INTO THE BLEND THAN THE EARLY PRELIM. WE LIKED THE IDEA OF THE NEW ECMWF MEAN SOMEWHAT WEAKENING NRN STREAM ENERGY VICINITY OF THE LAKES/NEW ENG DAYS 4-5...WHILE PLAYING UP MORE SIGNIFICANT TROFFING AT 500MB OVER THE W CENTRAL CONUS THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. 00Z/03 ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOWED HIGH SPREAD WITH THE FOLLOWING MAJOR SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE SRN PLAINS OR GULF COAST REGION NEXT THU/DAY 7. THE NEW DETERMINISTIC 12Z/03 GFS SHOWS A DISTINCT TREND TOWARDS THE 00Z/03 UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS BY TUE DAY 5...DROPPING A SHARPENING SHORTWAVE SSE ON THE E SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE IN THE ERN PACIFIC. THE 12Z/03 UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE TOO...AND ARE ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE CORRESPONDING 00Z/03 ECMWF RUN. THE NEW 12Z/03 UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE SHARPER AND ABOUT 18HRS SLOWER WITH THE AZ TROF WED THAN THAN THE CORRESPONDING GFS....AND IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. THE 00Z/03 ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ALL SHOWED THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHARPER TROF OVER THE GRT BASIN AND IT SEEMS TO BE PANNING OUT. WE INCORPORATED NEW DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS INTO THE FINAL GRAPHICS. A MAJOR SYS IS MORE LIKELY NOW ALONG THE GULF/SERN COAST THE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE STILL OBSCURE 6 AND 7 DAYS OUT. THE NEW ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGLY NWWD WITH A MAJOR STORM MOVING ACROSS THE SERN STATES THU DAY 7. AMIDST HIGH UNCERTAINTY...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SUBSEQUENT RUNS TREND EVEN FARTHER W WITH THIS STORM NEXT WEEK TOWARDS THE FAVORED LA NINA TRACK THRU THE OH VLY/WRN FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS. FLOOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 at the End he "surmised" that's what he felt might happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 at the End he "surmised" that's what he felt might happen... To me, it sounds like they're leaning that way just because thats what would normally happen in la nina. That's all I really take from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 what site do you look at? I use http://www.eas.slu.e...ALOG/analog.php which allows you to focus on a certain range and location of the country. For our area, its best to focus over the Midwest or Mississippi valley since that's usually the areas where things get going for our area if its going to be something big. On my site its only out to 36hrs over the midwest and 48hrs over the east so Its way out of range at the moment. I need to wait till the 120hrs come out later this afternoon. For what its worth, many nice threats showed up at 120hrs for the 00z run and thats still out of the range for our storm 8 days away. You can find them here. http://www.eas.slu.e...COSN&sort=FINAL For purposes of full disclosure, I'm only an amateur weather hobbyist and only view it to see if any KU storms are listed. I THINK but am not sure that Wes Junker uses it. I use the below link, but it sounds as if yours might be more meaningful as its more precise, geographical region-wise. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/analog.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 JB 3pm... he is working on this now...TITLE OF NEXT POST: IS THE REAL BLIZZARD OF THE CENTURY COMING NEXT WEEK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Euro ensembles are quicker and further to the south with the low next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I was just looking at this on the GFS..... the soundings gave high ratios and 23" for monmouth....... who knows......time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 GFS is actually fairly close to developing a disturbance around 108 hours...and it could be interesting should the trends continue. The 96 hour frame has a significant shortwave digging into the Tennessee Valley. Any more amplification and we're probably talking coastal development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 HPC says no reason to get excited on the coast, this will end up as a cutter. I agree, but again, that arctic high on the heels of the system could force it to be more southeast than otherwise...the pattern definitely favors an inland track at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 GFS is actually fairly close to developing a disturbance around 108 hours...and it could be interesting should the trends continue. The 96 hour frame has a significant shortwave digging into the Tennessee Valley. Any more amplification and we're probably talking coastal development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Should we create a thread for the possible Feb 7-8th threat? 18z gfs looks more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 hr 150 light to mod snow over the area...its amp up this run...the south east snowstorm has been taken away..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 at the End he "surmised" that's what he felt might happen... His name "Flood" is quite apropos to his thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Surface low rides along the front as the phase occurs aloft..goofy solution. Probably a heavy snow event in the immediate burbs...weird H5 depiction..probably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 hr 156 850's and surface over the city low over sc Hr 159 rain for the city...nw areas getting crushed.... hr 162 low of eastern delmarva...snow rain line is pretty much 95.....dc getting crushed...nyc it prob back to frozen 162-170 we are pretty much crushed by heavy snow.....low track over eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.