snowlurker Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I took a look at the CPC 6-10 day analogs centered on next Thursday and FWIW not a single KU storm is listed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 thats my point, 18-24 hrs before the storm the 850 winds are ripping from the sw, and the surface winds are coming from the south, but the gfs shows the 850s staying the same or colder and the surface in the mid to upper 20s Hey tom, love your input and your analysis is greatly appreciated. You make a good point about that HP,but it seems as though it weakens greatly before it slides off the coast therefore not really impacting winds as much as if it were a stronger HP. I think this could be the reason it looks as cold as it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Hey tom, love your input and your analysis is greatly appreciated. You make a good point about that HP,but it seems as though it weakens greatly before it slides off the coast therefore not really impacting winds as much as if it were a stronger HP. I think this could be the reason it looks as cold as it does. I think you make a good point - it is weak and by the time the storm comes, it has lost its influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I think you make a good point - it is weak and by the time the storm comes, it has lost its influence. it obviously has an influence if the winds are from the south all the way up till when the storm comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I took a look at the CPC 6-10 day analogs centered on next Thursday and FWIW not a single KU storm is listed what site do you look at? I use http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php which allows you to focus on a certain range and location of the country. For our area, its best to focus over the Midwest or Mississippi valley since that's usually the areas where things get going for our area if its going to be something big. On my site its only out to 36hrs over the midwest and 48hrs over the east so Its way out of range at the moment. I need to wait till the 120hrs come out later this afternoon. For what its worth, many nice threats showed up at 120hrs for the 00z run and thats still out of the range for our storm 8 days away. You can find them here. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=120&flg=new&map=COSN&sort=FINAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 it obviously has an influence if the winds are from the south all the way up till when the storm comes. I'm saying the effect could be overstated. The model wouldn't make up that much cold air, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'm saying the effect could be overstated. The model wouldn't make up that much cold air, IMO. These kinds of details are a long way from being worked out. There is a good chance that there will be a stronger high nosing e-ward toward the Great Lakes and northern New England that would swing our winds around to more northeasterly and that has been what's usually happened this winter. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 These kinds of details are a long way from being worked out. There is a good chance that there will be a stronger high nosing e-ward toward the Great Lakes and northern New England that would swing our winds around to more northeasterly and that has been what's usually happened this winter. WX/PT Agreed, that high might evolve into a similar setup to what occured earlier this week and that would be very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 any Euro analysis available? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 These kinds of details are a long way from being worked out. There is a good chance that there will be a stronger high nosing e-ward toward the Great Lakes and northern New England that would swing our winds around to more northeasterly and that has been what's usually happened this winter. WX/PT And when winter trends set in they are hard to break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 hr 156 low in souther tx...mod snowstorm going one from st louis-arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Any word on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 These kinds of details are a long way from being worked out. There is a good chance that there will be a stronger high nosing e-ward toward the Great Lakes and northern New England that would swing our winds around to more northeasterly and that has been what's usually happened this winter. WX/PT This is true. Everything is likely to shift around like 100 more times before this timeframe. Looking more closely at it though, it does seem a little warm cold if you were to take it verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 through hr 156 on the euro, the ridge axis is further west, bigger se ridge on the 12z...hgts are a lot higher compared to 0z run...with a plus 1028 high sliding off the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 hr 168 sub 1000 low in central bama, 850s are up to bout fredricksburg with lgt to mod precip over the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 the trof is bout to go to neg tilt over the miss river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 hr 174 sub 996 low in north central nc...rain for ph...sleet or rain for nyc...burbs are snow or sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 hr 168 low in central Alabama...850's/surface in southern VA...snow from central VA-baltimore...ohio valley getting hit hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 hr 180 sub 980 low over pvd 850s over nyc to miv...frz line about 50 miles west. mod to hvy precip over the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 so snow for baltimore and rain for philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 hr 180 drives the low right into sne...big hit for north/west of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Fixed This is true. Everything is likely to shift around like 100 more times before this timeframe. Looking more closely at it though, it does seem a little warm cold if you were to take it verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 so snow for baltimore and rain for philly? all the cities would prob be snow to start, the core of the system would be rain, then maybe back to snow...the low goes from northcentral nc to pvd, ri...so if you take that as a line it would travel over lower del and southern jerz over the tip of li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Sounds like the r/s line on the ggem, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 wow, only thing i take from this run literally..Euro has the big storm, and there is cold air to be worked with. Precip types mean nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 so snow for baltimore and rain for philly? at hr 174 surface runs through dc-batimore....while its west of phl.....so they would prob go to frz rain/rain....but comparing the two...they prob do better then phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 the west coast ridge axis location is crucial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Any QPF numbers yet Tombo? How does SE Canada look vs 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 wow, only thing i take from this run literally..Euro has the big storm, and there is cold air to be worked with. Precip types mean nothing. Exactly. The details will work out in time. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 all the cities would prob be snow to start, the core of the system would be rain, then maybe back to snow...the low goes from northcentral nc to pvd, ri...so if you take that as a line it would travel over lower del and southern jerz over the tip of li You were right when you said earlier, the set up is really marginal for this. A small change in track makes for a large difference, but unless we get a strong high to our north, keeping it all snow will be difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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