benfica356 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 This run of the GFS the SE ridge holds on and a typical lakes cutter arrives in about 14 days.....the overall synopsis of this event has shown up in different ways over the past few days and I would bet that this likely becomes our next threat, although it probably won't become apparant until sometime next week. Noreaster, do you have the link to this GFS run for that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Noreaster, do you have the link to this GFS run for that storm? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_324.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 From accuwx idk what it means, someone explain http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=121746 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 According to the LRC, we should be due for another major storm somewhere in Feb 14-17th range. Does this seem possible to anyone? The LRC has been really good this season. There seems to be a storm modeled around Valentines day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep....8/fp0_324.shtml did you really put up a map of the 324 hour Gfs? Two of these for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 a stupid +EPO develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 did you really put up a map of the 324 hour Gfs? Two of these for you. you don't have to tell me that, I knew, but someone asked so I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I guess this one's dead, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 R.I.P. HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The good news is, teleconnection Indices are looking much better around mid-month. http://www.daculaweather.com/ecmwf_00.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The good news is, teleconnection Indices are looking much better around mid-month. http://www.daculawea...om/ecmwf_00.php I thought we were going to be in the middle of a thaw from around 15-25? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 This ship has sailed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I thought we were going to be in the middle of a thaw from around 15-25? Models aren't showing as much of a warm-up as they were previously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The good news is, teleconnection Indices are looking much better around mid-month. http://www.daculawea...om/ecmwf_00.php Define much better? The nao is still positive, regarldess of it falling, and the GEFS don't show any appreciable west based block or +PNA throughout their run. The EPO tries to go negative but that doesn't look like it will get into a position to help the east coast othern than to possibly keep us on the cool side of mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I can't believe how fast this threat fell apart. Last week, the ensembles and the op runs were screaming a big potential with this storm. R.I.P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 This ship has sailed haha that pretty much sums it up sails off and out ot sea she goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Define much better? The nao is still positive, regarldess of it falling, and the GEFS don't show any appreciable west based block or +PNA throughout their run. The EPO tries to go negative but that doesn't look like it will get into a position to help the east coast othern than to possibly keep us on the cool side of mild. For starters, when you consider how terrible they are now, its a big improvement. Secondly, the drop off is coming in the west based NAO, and on future runs, it might go negative. Lastly, after a breif period of + EPO, that is also forecast to go -. Lastly, the MJO should be moving into a more favorable phase if it turns the corner sharp enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 06z GFS brings in a lakes cutter around day 14, and then things finally move towards a more zonal flow as the SE ridge finaly weakens. The leftover energy on days 4-5 amplify up the coast and bomb out offshore. 96hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 For starters, when you consider how terrible they are now, its a big improvement. Secondly, the drop off is coming in the west based NAO, and on future runs, it might go negative. Lastly, after a breif period of + EPO, that is also forecast to go -. Lastly, the MJO should be moving into a more favorable phase if it turns the corner sharp enough. I believe the term for this is wishcasting. I admire your love of cold and snow and that you want it to snow all the time as most of us do, but its better to work off of what is actually happening or forecast to happen, and now what you wish or hope or pray might happen. Fact of the matter is nothing in the next two weeks is that promising for east coast storm development. The best chance right now looks to be around day 8 on a miller B but that is a big stretch. After that, the signs are mixed at best as the pattern decides which way it wants to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Well, interesting to note that 7/12 12z gfs ensembles bring the 0.1 line through south or central Jersey at 48 hours now..with an 8th and 9th member up to cape May County...thats a pretty large jump. 12z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I wonder if this storm going off the coast is changing the models' output somewhat for the OTS storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 12z ECMWF actually brings light snow as far north as Asbury Park and the eastern end of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 12z ECMWF actually brings light snow as far north as Asbury Park and the eastern end of Long Island. Anything for Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Only out to 72 hrs so far. Anything for Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Unlike other recent systems, I don't expect this system to trend much further NW, if at all, because it is running into confluent flow. Also keep in mind that there is lots of dry air aloft that has to be overcome for snow to reach the ground even as far south as Delaware and southern NJ. 12z ECMWF actually brings light snow as far north as Asbury Park and the eastern end of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Unlike other recent systems, I don't expect this system to trend much further NW, if at all, because it is running into confluent flow. Also keep in mind that there is lots of dry air aloft that has to be overcome for snow to reach the ground even as far south as Delaware and southern NJ. How much time do we have for this to change, or is everything basically set? This is starting to remind me of some of our famous virga storms from the 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Nothing for Saturday either, not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Nothing for Saturday either, not even close. Thanks for the updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Nothing for Saturday either, not even close. The GFS is not even close with the QPF shield either but its not missing the phase at hr 96 by much. What does the PV orientation look like compared to the 12z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 What's going on here....Another painfully close call it looks like. This is not fair. The ship that sailed decided to make a u-turn so as to wave at us from a reasonable distance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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