Febuary 9-11 threat

[IsentropicLift]

New NAM at 54hrs. i see potential here. If the S/W here came in a tad stronger than advertised, it might be able to dig southward a bit more and sharpen out the trough. I'm not sure if it would be enough but its something to look for.

[earthlight]

New NAM at 54hrs. i see potential here. If the S/W here came in a tad stronger than advertised, it might be able to dig southward a bit more and sharpen out the trough. I'm not sure if it would be enough but its something to look for.

The chances of getting surface low development up the coast are extremely slim given that upper air pattern. Notice how poorly timed the northern and southern streams are. The northern stream is suppressive and flies eastward through the Great Lakes and Northeast. This creates a confluent flow and the development of westerly winds aloft which shear the shortwave out into the mean trough as it progresses eastward.

Earlier guidance had this northern stream feature either a) digging further south and west and interacting with the northern stream or b ) being better timed with the southern stream (southern stream feature was slower) allowing for a weak southwest flow aloft which allowed the shortwave room to amplify up the east coast along the baroclinic zone and ahead of that northern stream entity.

What you posted is simply not going to get the job done at all at this latitude.

[TheTrials]

The chances of getting surface low development up the coast are extremely slim given that upper air pattern. Notice how poorly timed the northern and southern streams are. The northern stream is suppressive and flies eastward through the Great Lakes and Northeast. This creates a confluent flow and the development of westerly winds aloft which shear the shortwave out into the mean trough as it progresses eastward.

Earlier guidance had this northern stream feature either a) digging further south and west and interacting with the northern stream or b ) being better timed with the southern stream (southern stream feature was slower) allowing for a weak southwest flow aloft which allowed the shortwave room to amplify up the east coast along the baroclinic zone and ahead of that northern stream entity.

What you posted is simply not going to get the job done at all at this latitude.

To be fair, we may get some high cloudiness out of it.

[IsentropicLift]

The idea of a bombing MECS is probably off the table but were not far from seeing measurable QPF if the new NAM has any indication. Also, from what's being said on the Feb 7-8 thread, most models are not handeling current trends well.

[earthlight]

It is quite incredible how a bunch of threats have fallen by the way-side, and with the pattern breakdown forecast to ensue over the next week or two, I think the push towards #1 snowfall totals may be on life support. This winter is still epic and absolutely the #1 of all time at my location--but it's definitely surprising when the pattern finally breaks down regardless of what happens prior to that.

The one thing I will continue to stress is how a thaw or pattern change is much different at this stage of the game than it would have been earlier in the winter or even in early or Mid January. It's February 7th now--with the pattern breakdown forecast to last probably 10 days, maybe a bit longer given model variance and tendency to over-develop pattern changes in the long term. That puts us near February 20th when the pattern starts to change..with the wavelengths increasing that could leave us some room to work with in March, but it's going to be tough.

Also...do not estimate the developing sun angle. Been there, done that...whenever you have clear skies and light winds in late February guidance will almost always be a few degrees too low...same applies for March through May and potentially even June. Look at the 10am OBS

NYZ071-072-176-178-NJZ106-104-071600-

NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

CENTRAL PARK CLOUDY 41 24 51 VRB7 30.06F

LAGUARDIA APRT PTSUNNY 43 25 49 VRB5 30.04F

[IsentropicLift]

It is quite incredible how a bunch of threats have fallen by the way-side, and with the pattern breakdown forecast to ensue over the next week or two, I think the push towards #1 snowfall totals may be on life support. This winter is still epic and absolutely the #1 of all time at my location--but it's definitely surprising when the pattern finally breaks down regardless of what happens prior to that.

The one thing I will continue to stress is how a thaw or pattern change is much different at this stage of the game than it would have been earlier in the winter or even in early or Mid January. It's February 7th now--with the pattern breakdown forecast to last probably 10 days, maybe a bit longer given model variance and tendency to over-develop pattern changes in the long term. That puts us near February 20th when the pattern starts to change..with the wavelengths increasing that could leave us some room to work with in March, but it's going to be tough.

Also...do not estimate the developing sun angle. Been there, done that...whenever you have clear skies and light winds in late February guidance will almost always be a few degrees too low...same applies for March through May and potentially even June. Look at the 10am OBS

NYZ071-072-176-178-NJZ106-104-071600-

NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

CENTRAL PARK CLOUDY 41 24 51 VRB7 30.06F

LAGUARDIA APRT PTSUNNY 43 25 49 VRB5 30.04F

I happen to agree with you John but I think we will do quite well for the four week period of 2/20-3/13. After that it starts to become real dicey. Some mets are honking at the fact the models are not doing a good job of handeling what's currently ongoing in the SE. What do you make of that?

[Chris L]

John, I agree with your analysis. March will certaintly be an interesting month, I am hoping for a two soild snowfalls, because that is all it takes to surpass the record really. Newark is at 63.3", only 15.1" behind the record.

[dbc]

John, I agree with your analysis. March will certaintly be an interesting month, I am hoping for a two soild snowfalls, because that is all it takes to surpass the record really. Newark is at 63.3", only 15.1" behind the record.

If we surpass 95-96 that would be something. I would like it to come in 4 parts though. 2 in February, 2 in March. That end result would be remarkably similar to 95-96. One April storm would be nice too but now I am just getting greedy lol. Regardless though 2 Feb's, 2 March's and 1 April would basically mirror 95-96.

[nzucker]

The one thing I will continue to stress is how a thaw or pattern change is much different at this stage of the game than it would have been earlier in the winter or even in early or Mid January. It's February 7th now--with the pattern breakdown forecast to last probably 10 days, maybe a bit longer given model variance and tendency to over-develop pattern changes in the long term. That puts us near February 20th when the pattern starts to change..with the wavelengths increasing that could leave us some room to work with in March, but it's going to be tough.

Also...do not estimate the developing sun angle. Been there, done that...whenever you have clear skies and light winds in late February guidance will almost always be a few degrees too low...same applies for March through May and potentially even June. Look at the 10am OBS

I don't think the thaw is too big of a deal if we get the -AO/-NAO pattern to resume by February 20th. That still gives us 4 weeks.

[IsentropicLift]

12z GFS is still not getting the job done but....the PV again is looking less supressive to me.

[TheTrials]

Before anyone jumps off a cliff because we have a 2 week pattern change or decides that suddenly the sun at the end of February into the middle of March is so strong that we need to be wearing SPF 50 when we walk outside, please consider the pretty extensive list of late February and early March storms to affect the area and also consider the fact that March Nina's tend to be below normal. Yes, the snow that falls will not stick around for a month, and unless you are going to throw it up in the air and watch it fall again, its pretty useless around here on the ground. Yes, surface temps will be warmer and thus marginal setups will go against us, but I for one think we shall once again see some extensive and impressive blocking at the end of this month into March and with the active northern stream, the split flow, and even the stj showing up here and there, I like our chances to end winter with a bang!

[SnoSki14]

I'm just going to take things day by day. I'm not so sure if we will see another snow event but it wouldn't surprise me if we did. I just hope March doesn't torch again.

[IsentropicLift]

Take a look at the water vapor loop, it's encouraging to say the least. Energy is diving down through the Rockies and the trough looks fairly sharp.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=24

[IsentropicLift]

This has to be one of the most frustrating weeks of watching the models that I can remember. it's going to be hard to take a threat in 7 day range again seriously.

[Storm At Sea]

This has to be one of the most frustrating weeks of watching the models that I can remember. it's going to be hard to take a threat in 7 day range again seriously.

Then you have not been doing this for very long. This is an unusual winter; rarely do we take many day 7 threats seriously. Honestly, I think anyone that posts here regularly will tell you that threats 5-7 days out are viewed in a very cautious manner. There's a good reason why NYC averages 30 in. of snow each winter and not 90 in.

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

Before anyone jumps off a cliff because we have a 2 week pattern change or decides that suddenly the sun at the end of February into the middle of March is so strong that we need to be wearing SPF 50 when we walk outside, please consider the pretty extensive list of late February and early March storms to affect the area and also consider the fact that March Nina's tend to be below normal. Yes, the snow that falls will not stick around for a month, and unless you are going to throw it up in the air and watch it fall again, its pretty useless around here on the ground. Yes, surface temps will be warmer and thus marginal setups will go against us, but I for one think we shall once again see some extensive and impressive blocking at the end of this month into March and with the active northern stream, the split flow, and even the stj showing up here and there, I like our chances to end winter with a bang!

Agreed. This winter is far from being over.

[IsentropicLift]

Then you have not been doing this for very long. This is an unusual winter; rarely do we take many day 7 threats seriously. Honestly, I think anyone that posts here regularly will tell you that threats 5-7 days out are viewed in a very cautious manner. There's a good reason why NYC averages 30 in. of snow each winter and not 90 in.

I've been following weather all of my life but I've only been heavily involved with threads over the past year or so. Didn't know they existed, I would look at the models myself and take them for what I could. You don't have to tell me how rare snow is in this area, I've lived here for 25 years. Last two years have spoiled us.

[IsentropicLift]

12z 36hr analogs over the east threw us a bone...but not a very big one.

http://www.eas.slu.e...SN&sort=500HGHT

[green tube]

I don't think the thaw is too big of a deal if we get the -AO/-NAO pattern to resume by February 20th. That still gives us 4 weeks.

historically speaking (independent of any year's particular pattern) March 1-10 is still prime time for snow... probably nearly as productive as any other 10 day stretch during the winter.

[winterwarlock]

Then you have not been doing this for very long. This is an unusual winter; rarely do we take many day 7 threats seriously. Honestly, I think anyone that posts here regularly will tell you that threats 5-7 days out are viewed in a very cautious manner. There's a good reason why NYC averages 30 in. of snow each winter and not 90 in.

great post, words of wisdoms for alot of the younger folk to listen to. What we have experienced this year and last is not the norm. The norm is the handwringing, inland cutters, supressions, wasted cold air, and snow events every two weeks.

[NJwinter23]

General thoughts I wrote up in an article today covering this storm and the longer range ideas.

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-newark/snow-threats-this-week-on-life-support-including-tonight-s-event-cold-returns

[EasternLI]

great post, words of wisdoms for alot of the younger folk to listen to. What we have experienced this year and last is not the norm. The norm is the handwringing, inland cutters, supressions, wasted cold air, and snow events every two weeks if your lucky.

Fixed

[CooL]

General thoughts I wrote up in an article today covering this storm and the longer range ideas.

http://www.examiner....nt-cold-returns

Good work Chris, It was an easy read with informative thoughts. Late week storm is kinda dead now, so lets hope you are right a more favorable pattern returning late february and March. We can still get some whoppers during this timeframe, like last year during the feb 25-26th timeframe.

[JoeInNJ]

Good work Chris, It was an easy read with informative thoughts. Late week storm is kinda dead now, so lets hope you are right a more favorable pattern returning late february and March. We can still get some whoppers during this timeframe, like last year during the feb 25-26th timeframe.

According to the LRC, we should be due for another major storm somewhere in Feb 14-17th range. Does this seem possible to anyone?

[EasternLI]

General thoughts I wrote up in an article today covering this storm and the longer range ideas.

http://www.examiner....nt-cold-returns

LOL......"stupid groundhog"

[citylikeAMradio]

LOL......"stupid groundhog"

^^ "like" haha

It's a bit disappointing to see the NAM showing a dryslot over my area after what it called for 3 days ago.. Pretty impressive systems moving though Florida and Georgia though

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

a little pattern breakdown and most folks are calling the end already. anyone that thought the beginning of winter would last til mar is fooling themselves. this long term pattern change is nonsense, more members have been showing the NAO tanking again. until then, just relax as the pattern relaxes...then hold on at the end, it could get bumpy.

[TheTrials]

very suspicious the "pattern change" is merely a moderation until the bottom falls out again. Even this week is now going to be pretty chilly after tomorrow and then when we moderate another system in the northern stream comes down and may or may not pop a coastal. After that we may moderate again but who knows.

[Kaner587]

very suspicious the "pattern change" is merely a moderation until the bottom falls out again. Even this week is now going to be pretty chilly after tomorrow and then when we moderate another system in the northern stream comes down and may or may not pop a coastal. After that we may moderate again but who knows.

I posted something similar in the pattern change thread. It doesn't look like a pattern change more of a moderation. The 18z GFS does advertise warmer temps in the 10-14 day period but it did this earlier last week and is now showing cooler weather for that time period. So it remains to be seen if we just moderate to normal temps or if we actually get above normal. I'm thinking the former but we'll see how it plays out.

[IsentropicLift]

This run of the GFS the SE ridge holds on and a typical lakes cutter arrives in about 14 days.....the overall synopsis of this event has shown up in different ways over the past few days and I would bet that this likely becomes our next threat, although it probably won't become apparant until sometime next week.