Bluescat1 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I was sitting on my deck with my cat , and I want to tell you the warm sun does feel good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Things could still change but at this point it looks dead. Can't complain with the awesome winter we've had so far but not going to obsess over it. Going to get outside and enjoy the february thaw! Let's give it until 00z Tuesday to stick a fork in this potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 You have heard in previous statements that there is no -NAO ???? The NAO has been negative with all the previous snow events.... A neg nao actually would suppress the solution even more. We dont want it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Let's give it until 00z Tuesday to stick a fork in this potential event. Yeah the 48 hr rule usually works well (I'd actually give it til 12z Tuesday.) I dont get why people always rush to judgment on these storms, patience pays dividends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I still feel reasonably confident this threat is not dead my any means. Look at the 48 hour storm, its totally different than it looked four days ago. One thing I noticed is the individual gefs nudging their way north. All it takes is a slight change in the northern stream setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 A neg nao actually would suppress the solution even more. We dont want it right now. No it wouldn't, Alex. A -NAO (in this case, a west-based block) would actually make the PV a smaller feature, and force it further SW, which would help to buckle the pattern. In +NAOs, the PV is often a HUGE in size, and in bad positions. -NAO does not always mean suppressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yeah the 48 hr rule usually works well (I'd actually give it til 12z Tuesday.) I dont get why people always rush to judgment on these storms, patience pays dividends. This is all I was trying to suggest, and I nearly got my head ripped off. I agree at this time it's not looking good. However I just don't put too much stock in what the models are portraying this year. Just look at what happened yesterday, consensus from the NWS was LP tracking to the SE when in fact the track was NW of the area. Models didn't even catch on to this until it was actually happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I still feel reasonably confident this threat is not dead my any means. Look at the 48 hour storm, its totally different than it looked four days ago. One thing I noticed is the individual gefs nudging their way north. All it takes is a slight change in the northern stream setup. Even PT(Wxoutlooksblog) says things will change many times before the event so what you may see now may be totally different tomorrow. Though he has cut down chances for the Thursday event with only one asterisk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 12z GFS ensembles are better than the 00z ensembles. 12z has 1008 mb low off the coast. Plenty of time for modeling to change. Most of the storms have changed on the guidance as the storms became closer in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 No it wouldn't, Alex. A -NAO (in this case, a west-based block) would actually make the PV a smaller feature, and force it further SW, which would help to buckle the pattern. In +NAOs, the PV is often a HUGE in size, and in bad positions. -NAO does not always mean suppressive. I was going by what Adam said in the Philly thread; he actually thinks this storm is going to be a coastal hugger (or did as of last night), because none of the indicies support this kind of OTS track. I remember him saying that he thinks the models have the PV in the wrong spot and there really isnt any support for it being there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I was sitting on my cat , and I want to tell you that feels good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 12z GFS ensembles are better than the 00z ensembles. 12z has 1008 mb low off the coast. Plenty of time for modeling to change. Most of the storms have changed on the guidance as the storm as become closer in time. Yeah, we actually should wait for the early week storm to do its thing before making prognostications on what happens down the road. Remember the debacle last night? No one saw that coming either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Please dont do those silly edits in this thread. There is a banter thread and I'm sure plenty of threads in the PA forum to do that. Thanks, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 LOL did he really say that? Well, I guess we know how his cat turned blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I still feel reasonably confident this threat is not dead my any means. Look at the 48 hour storm, its totally different than it looked four days ago. One thing I noticed is the individual gefs nudging their way north. All it takes is a slight change in the northern stream setup. Hell, you could look at the event yesterday which turned out nothing like we expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Please dont do those silly edits in this thread. There is a banter thread and I'm sure plenty of threads in the PA forum to do that. Thanks, Oh lighten up Francis. What's wrong with a little humor to lighten the mood. Some of you people need to get a life and stop worrying about snow so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 LOL did he really say that? Well, I guess we know how his cat turned blue. I edited it. I like the Captain even though we don't see eye to eye politically. Good man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yes Period - and in this case a -NAO in the right position would probably do the trick....... While this is probably true in this instance, the -NAO that you claim was in place in every storm is simply untrue. The 1/26 event did not really have a -NAO in place. Don't say it was East-based because by the time the storm was on top of us the East Based -NAO was long gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 You know things are not going well when not a single storm shows up on the 120hr analongs over the east. That was as of the 00z runs. We have a couple outside chances here. The first concern is the system on Tuesday. The models have been trending sharper and deeper with the trough but a piece of the PV is breaking off too late and missing the phase. You can see it here on the GFS which is why we end up with a decent event early in the week even if the coastal stays offshore. We need the entire northern stream to dive southwest over the rockies during this time frame and its not happening. As we move later in the run, you can see how this secondary piece of energy is acting as a kicker and forcing the inital wave off the coast. Meanwhile our energy of interest is now diving down through the Pacific. The mean ridge axis is about 300 miles west of ideal. It's becoming clear already at this point in the run that there is split flow over the Rockies and the northern stream clearly is not digging SW enough. If corrected that would make a huge difference. Moving ahead further in the run, the concequences of the second S/W missing the phase over the northeast are making there self known. Both are now attempting to phase with the PV but the second S/W is helping to keep heights lowered on the east coast. We need one consolidated phased low at this point over Nova Scota or were dead in the water. Our energy of interest is now moving through the four corners region. By hr 78, the northern stream is starting to drop in more over western Canada but the damage has already been done. The PV is supressing heights along the coast and its game set match. By hr 96, our southern stream energy is a sheared out mess. Thanks to the south east riding, the trough is permitted to amplify ever so slightly allowing for a non-organized mess of a low to head out to sea off the MA coast. The PV is in firm control and keeping heights lowered along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 You know things are not going well when not a single storm shows up on the 120hr analongs over the east. That was as of the 00z runs. We have a couple outside chances here. The first concern is the system on Tuesday. The models have been trending sharper and deeper with the trough but a piece of the PV is breaking off too late and missing the phase. You can see it here on the GFS which is why we end up with a decent event early in the week even if the coastal stays offshore. We need the entire northern stream to dive southwest over the rockies during this time frame and its not happening. Either way..... I must say i am happy that it looks like its a much greater OTS chance then an inland runner chance at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 While this is probably true in this instance, the -NAO that you claim was in place in every storm is simply untrue. The 1/26 event did not really have a -NAO in place. Don't say it was East-based because by the time the storm was on top of us the East Based -NAO was long gone. And according to what the mets were saying, an east based neg NAO is similar to a pos NAO for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Is it fair to say that if the earlier system phases earlier, that's also good news for the late week system? It seems like the fates of the two are intertwined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Per Tombo's posts in the PHL thread, looks like the EURO is similar to the other 12z guidance. OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Even worse than last nights run..barely develops a surface low and it's well out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Euro was outlier with the thursday storm when it was showing hits. And it's a big outlier now for the Tuesday storm. It's the only model so east for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The pv meens business on the models today, its crushing the s/w and broadening the trough. In fact, at hr 102, there barely is a low off the coast, just a string of heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 What are the chances of everything working out as they're being currently modeled? Probably not very good. When was the last time something shown this far out actually verified. That goes for ANY solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 hr 96 on the 00z GFS, heights are ever so slightly higher on the EC but by then the fate of OTS has already been written in the books. Slight improvement this run especially in the first 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Can't complain I won't mnd a nice few days of warm, this just isn't our storm I'm almost positive it Wont hit us hope I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Interesting feature at day five from a piece of energy left behind, forms a weak coastal and heads OTS, Worth noting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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