Snowtrain Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 CMC has the storm too but quicker and not as wrapped up. less amp'd CMC, that's a rarity~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 less amp'd CMC, that's a rarity~ Quite a different setup than the GFS, high pressure is in perfect position on the GFS. CMC looks quite different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The minute I saw this my power went out for 10 mins.....Lock it up.... 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 12z GFS bufkit has the three hour period ending at hr 171 with 13.6" for KPHL! Of course, 26:1 ratios really help. 110210/0300Z 159 17005KT 24.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110210/0600Z 162 18006KT 25.0F SNOW 12:1| 0.1|| 0.1 0.012|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110210/0900Z 165 09005KT 25.9F SNOW 11:1| 1.0|| 1.1 0.091|| 0.10 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110210/1200Z 168 04010KT 25.7F SNOW 17:1| 3.5|| 4.7 0.213|| 0.31 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110210/1500Z 171 36018KT 23.9F SNOW 26:1|13.6||18.3 0.516|| 0.83 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110210/1800Z 174 32017KT 26.8F SNOW 21:1| 2.3||20.6 0.110|| 0.94 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110210/2100Z 177 30016KT 24.4F SNOW 14:1| 0.3||20.8 0.020|| 0.96 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110211/0000Z 180 28014KT 18.3F 0:1| 0.0||20.8 0.000|| 0.96 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kphl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 12z GFS bufkit has the three hour period ending at hr 171 with 13.6" for KPHL! Of course, 26:1 ratios really help. 110210/0300Z 159 17005KT 24.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110210/0600Z 162 18006KT 25.0F SNOW 12:1| 0.1|| 0.1 0.012|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110210/0900Z 165 09005KT 25.9F SNOW 11:1| 1.0|| 1.1 0.091|| 0.10 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110210/1200Z 168 04010KT 25.7F SNOW 17:1| 3.5|| 4.7 0.213|| 0.31 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110210/1500Z 171 36018KT 23.9F SNOW 26:1|13.6||18.3 0.516|| 0.83 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110210/1800Z 174 32017KT 26.8F SNOW 21:1| 2.3||20.6 0.110|| 0.94 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110210/2100Z 177 30016KT 24.4F SNOW 14:1| 0.3||20.8 0.020|| 0.96 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110211/0000Z 180 28014KT 18.3F 0:1| 0.0||20.8 0.000|| 0.96 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 http://www.meteor.ia...l=gfs&site=kphl 25.6 inches at Islip with peak ratios of 28:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Individual GEFS fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 less amp'd CMC, that's a rarity~ However, they all have the storm and look cold enough. Great signal this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 High pressure in perfect position. Epic storm. oklahoma is the perfect position? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 oklahoma is the perfect position? How about the one over SE Canada, granted it's not that strong but it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 How about the one over SE Canada, granted it's not that strong but it's there. no, it isn't. it's an arbitrary H the model has there because it's some local maxima or something the high pressure system is centered over the plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I don't want to be a debbie downer but here are my thoughts. I don't see this being a perfect setup. 1. the high situated over the northeast is weak, very weak and wouldn't be strong enough to keep the cold air locked. 2. the ridge axis out west argues for a hugger to inland track. 3. no negative nao so no feature to lock in a high pressure or keep the low as a coastal. 4. The way the gfs portrays right before that storm occurs with the cold is wrong. You have a high sliding off the mid atl coast with southerly winds ripping into the coastal plain, no way the 850s are that cold or surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Epic shafting for the interior continues.........Here is Allentown - drops off dramatically as you head NW from there. 110210/0300Z 159 18003KT 19.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110210/0600Z 162 17006KT 21.0F SNOW 12:1| 0.2|| 0.2 0.016|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110210/0900Z 165 12005KT 22.6F SNOW 12:1| 1.1|| 1.2 0.091|| 0.11 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110210/1200Z 168 04008KT 22.5F SNOW 17:1| 2.2|| 3.4 0.130|| 0.24 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110210/1500Z 171 01010KT 22.8F SNOW 14:1| 3.5|| 6.9 0.256|| 0.49 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110210/1800Z 174 32015KT 25.7F SNOW 21:1| 1.4|| 8.3 0.067|| 0.56 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110210/2100Z 177 30015KT 21.7F SNOW 12:1| 0.1|| 8.5 0.012|| 0.57 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110211/0000Z 180 29015KT 16.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 8.5 0.000|| 0.57 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I don't want to be a debbie downer but here are my thoughts. I don't see this being a perfect setup. 1. the high situated over the northeast is weak, very weak and wouldn't be strong enough to keep the cold air locked. 2. the ridge axis out west argues for a hugger to inland track. 3. no negative nao so no feature to lock in a high pressure or keep the low as a coastal. 4. The way the gfs portrays right before that storm occurs with the cold is wrong. You have a high sliding off the mid atl coast with southerly winds ripping into the coastal plain, no way the 850s are that cold or surface temps. It's a better setup than we've had with our snow and ice lately, and no major model has it as a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It's a better setup than we've had with our snow and ice lately, and no major model has it as a cutter. lol its a 160 plus hrs out. The storm yesterday 160 hrs out looked beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 lol its a 160 plus hrs out. The storm yesterday 160 hrs out looked beautiful. But Tom, the Euro always screwed us on this storm. Euro/GGEM also showing massive potential with this, so I wouldn't compare it to the last storm at all dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 lol its a 160 plus hrs out. The storm yesterday 160 hrs out looked beautiful. I think what might keep it cold is the way it intensifies and takes a good track. This year it's been all we need. The GFS is also showing cold air before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 But Tom, the Euro always screwed us on this storm. Euro/GGEM also showing massive potential with this, so I wouldn't compare it to the last storm at all dude. im not comparing it to anything, im just saying its a 160 hrs out, so much can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 no, it isn't. it's an arbitrary H the model has there because it's some local maxima or something the high pressure system is centered over the plains This. The "high pressure" in Canada, as modeled, is a good bit weaker than my CURRENT pressure...and it was snowing lightly at that pressure too. If there were a real high pressure in the same region, this area might even have an L rather than an H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I don't want to be a debbie downer but here are my thoughts. I don't see this being a perfect setup. 1. the high situated over the northeast is weak, very weak and wouldn't be strong enough to keep the cold air locked. 2. the ridge axis out west argues for a hugger to inland track. 3. no negative nao so no feature to lock in a high pressure or keep the low as a coastal. 4. The way the gfs portrays right before that storm occurs with the cold is wrong. You have a high sliding off the mid atl coast with southerly winds ripping into the coastal plain, no way the 850s are that cold or surface temps. We have 30+ GFS model runs to go from here. The end result will more than definitly be different than what's currently being depicted but all of the major models are now latching onto this. First, our low this weekend is going to be key, let's see if it can become a 50/50. Secondly, the NAO is forecasted to be slightly - or neutral according to the latest Euro, and it could become even more so in later runs. weakly posiive west based NAO slightly - east based NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 FYI, it looks like philly and nyc have finally been split, so I guess a Feb 8/9 thread needs to be started down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 We have 30+ GFS model runs to go from here. The end result will more than definitly be different than what's currently being depicted but all of the major models are now latching onto this. First, our low this weekend is going to be key, let's see if it can become a 50/50. Secondly, the NAO is forecasted to be slightly - or neutral according to the latest Euro, and it could become even more so in later runs. Im solely going off what this 12z model run has on the gfs...Yes there is potential, but if the gfs were to keep this solution as we headed forward i would be shocked if it kept it that cold with southerly winds ripping into the coast and a lack of a high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Im solely going off what this 12z model run has on the gfs...Yes there is potential, but if the gfs were to keep this solution as we headed forward i would be shocked if it kept it that warm with southerly winds ripping into the coast and a lack of a high pressure. hey bro, when you do euro pbps, we are still gonna be coming over there and asking you for qpf numbers for us up here, fyi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 im not comparing it to anything, im just saying its a 160 hrs out, so much can change. well yeah like the late january snowstorm where philly and nyc saw 15"+ with insane snow rates. 150 hrs out from that many, including me and you were calling for a warm scenario for the I-95 because many models were well inland with 3" of rain. Its ridiculous to make any calls this far out especially in this winter, or we will get burned yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 lol its a 160 plus hrs out. The storm yesterday 160 hrs out looked beautiful. Then the NW trend commenced The 12Z run is 300 miles E of the 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 hey bro, when you do euro pbps, we are still gonna be coming over there and asking you for qpf numbers for us up here, fyi. lol hahaha ok, well on the weekdays i can't do the 12z euro pbp cause of work now...but if there is a threat i will do them at 0z for the thread and will answer questions...weekends ill do both runs since i dont have work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 lol hahaha ok, well on the weekdays i can't do the 12z euro pbp cause of work now...but if there is a threat i will do them at 0z for the thread and will answer questions...weekends ill do both runs since i dont have work. sounds good thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 lol hahaha ok, well on the weekdays i can't do the 12z euro pbp cause of work now...but if there is a threat i will do them at 0z for the thread and will answer questions...weekends ill do both runs since i dont have work. you should have some kind of special status on this board for all of your efforts!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 well yeah like the late january snowstorm where philly and nyc saw 15"+ with insane snow rates. 150 hrs out from that many, including me and you were calling for a warm scenario for the I-95 because many models were well inland with 3" of rain. Its ridiculous to make any calls this far out especially in this winter, or we will get burned yet again. Yea thats true, but the whole evolution of that storm changed...im not saying this doesn't have potential. Im saying if the gfs holds that look for 140 hrs i would bank on that solution getting warmer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yea thats true, but the whole evolution of that storm changed...im not saying this doesn't have potential. Im saying if the gfs holds that look for 140 hrs i would bank on that solution getting warmer.. As I said, though, the intensification of the low and a good track make its cold air. Plus, it helps that it is cold before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 As I said, though, the intensification of the low and a good track make its cold air. Plus, it helps that it is cold before. thats my point, 18-24 hrs before the storm the 850 winds are ripping from the sw, and the surface winds are coming from the south, but the gfs shows the 850s staying the same or colder and the surface in the mid to upper 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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