IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Personally I thought the first 96hrs was an improvement. Seemed like the northern stream was digging more but the system for Tuesday was just too sloppy with the energy and kept heights down along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Personally I thought the first 96hrs was an improvement. Seemed like the northern stream was digging more but the system for Tuesday was just too sloppy with the energy and kept heights down along the coast. gfs is shearing out the shortwave, almost nonexistent and is not digging, which allows the trough to broaden and the storm is weak and ots. I wouldnt get worried unless the euro starts to show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Each of the past runs of the gfs, it looks like it will go more towards the euro solution. But it never quite gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 gfs is shearing out the shortwave, almost nonexistent and is not digging, which allows the trough to broaden and the storm is weak and ots. I wouldnt get worried unless the euro starts to show this. The GFS sheared out the southern wave severely prior to the 12/26 storm as did almost all the other models....they did not really start doing it though until inside 4 days when the system came onshore...the fact the GFS consistently is doing it this time makes me wonder why.....again though the GFS is almost exactly where you want to see it at this range, maybe alittle more SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The GFS sheared out the southern wave severely prior to the 12/26 storm as did almost all the other models....they did not really start doing it though until inside 4 days when the system came onshore...the fact the GFS consistently is doing it this time makes me wonder why.....again though the GFS is almost exactly where you want to see it at this range, maybe alittle more SE. Yes it did, and it showed the storm in the 150 hr range as well for that storm..Then sheared out the s/w and missed the phase for days while the euro had it, only to come roaring back. I have seen the gfs do this with almost every storm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I still think the biggest problem here is that the storm early in the week splits the energy into two seperate lows. Our best runs had one consolidated low bombing out. This feature is preventing heights from rising along the coast. At least before, even without PV involvement we were able to queeze out a storm but now it seems like there is split flow and any amplification of the trough itself is coming from the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The 00Z NOGAPS is not that much more suppressed with the storm than the GFS,....red flag! The GEM appears to get the precip shield as far north as C NJ at 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 00z GGEM is north and west of the GFS for sure...also much slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 The 00Z NOGAPS is not that much more suppressed with the storm than the GFS,....red flag! The GEM appears to get the precip shield as far north as C NJ at 144 hours. yep...per dt on the 00z ggem Wxrisk.com 0z Canadian model is out... MAJOR SNOWSTORM for NC VA lower MD possibly Dc and s NJ. KEY difference with the gfs... is at 96 &108 hours the Canadian does not "crush " southern energy /surface LOW. This is in good agreement with last 5runs of euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 yep...per dt on the 00z ggem Wxrisk.com 0z Canadian model is out... MAJOR SNOWSTORM for NC VA lower MD possibly Dc and s NJ. KEY difference with the gfs... is at 96 &108 hours the Canadian does not "crush " southern energy /surface LOW. This is in good agreement with last 5runs of euro What?? I guess maybe this is considered a major snowstorm these days? Sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 What?? I guess maybe this is considered a major snowstorm these days? Sheesh yeah he has that on FB,,,but nothing looks major about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 What?? I guess maybe this is considered a major snowstorm these days? Sheesh Thats a nice rainstorm for them...there is no precip north of the 850 0C line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Euro on the way in now...through 60 hrs now. Hopefully we'll all have good news to spread around in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Euro seems a bit faster through 72 but has some more northern stream interaction thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Through 78 hours it's definitely ejecting the southwestern us shortwave faster and has much more northern stream involvement. It's hard to tell what kind of effect this will have down the road, though...as it's deamplifying the flow a bit over the Central US with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Crazy changes over the Plains and Central US through 84 hours...seems much less amplified with the entire flow aloft. Also much faster with the shortwave moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It's going to come down to whether or not the northern stream can get involved on this run..that's what we need to tug this up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 At 90 hours northern stream heights bearing down through the Great Lakes..not looking too hot at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 At the surface..1012mb surface low over The Northern Gulf and far Southern LA/MS at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 EC DAY 4: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 hr 108 way ots..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 108 hours out to sea and much less organized than previous runs...as mentioned the N Stream is too strong and pretty much squashes the amplification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 108 hours out to sea and much less organized than previous runs...as mentioned the N Stream is too strong and pretty much squashes the amplification Wow, this was unexpected. Im guessing your thoughts havent changed much, John? We have a lot of tracking to do and another storm in the short range that needs to get out of the way before anything about the 2/9-11 event can be decided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 EC DAY 5: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Wow, this was unexpected. Im guessing your thoughts havent changed much, John? We have a lot of tracking to do and another storm in the short range that needs to get out of the way before anything about the 2/9-11 event can be decided. Correct, nothing has really changed. Agree with your thoughts on the prior events passing first before anything is decided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Correct, nothing has really changed. Agree with your thoughts on the prior events passing first before anything is decided. It seems that southern stream shortwaves have been trending much stronger once they are properly sampled this winter, so that may be a clue that the event ends up closer to the coast than modeled. The 470dm PV over Northern Quebec is certainly an obstacle to amplification, but I doubt it rules out the chances for a snowstorm. If we are to break area-wide snowfall and snow depth records, we need this storm to verify as the pattern looks to break down for a few days after that before the NAO/AO blocking comes back around February 16-18 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 00z Euro ensembles much faster and as a result more suppressed than the 12z run. What happened on tonight's models is the southern stream shortwave trended faster--but the northern stream trended a bit stronger. There's little room for a phase given the northern stream speed and orientation, thus it simply acts as a kicker and pushes the southern stream shortwave east into a very fast mid level flow. The surface low has no room to amplify in that synoptic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It seems that southern stream shortwaves have been trending much stronger once they are properly sampled this winter, so that may be a clue that the event ends up closer to the coast than modeled. The 470dm PV over Northern Quebec is certainly an obstacle to amplification, but I doubt it rules out the chances for a snowstorm. If we are to break area-wide snowfall and snow depth records, we need this storm to verify as the pattern looks to break down for a few days after that before the NAO/AO blocking comes back around February 16-18 or so. That's also very true regarding the shortwaves. If you throw out Dec 19 '10...every shortwave has trended more robust as it approaches, which is surprising to see as it never usually occurs that way. But I agree in regards to the PV and the N Stream..it's a bit of a problem. Also agree regarding the records at least for the I-95 corridor. This is an important storm in that regard, although I guess you never know what the end of Feb could hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cp63 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 That's also very true regarding the shortwaves. If you throw out Dec 19 '10...every shortwave has trended more robust as it approaches, which is surprising to see as it never usually occurs that way. But I agree in regards to the PV and the N Stream..it's a bit of a problem. Also agree regarding the records at least for the I-95 corridor. This is an important storm in that regard, although I guess you never know what the end of Feb could hold. Prior to sampling,the same could be said of northern stream s/w's.They have been progged either too strong and/or too fast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 That's also very true regarding the shortwaves. If you throw out Dec 19 '10...every shortwave has trended more robust as it approaches, which is surprising to see as it never usually occurs that way. But I agree in regards to the PV and the N Stream..it's a bit of a problem. Also agree regarding the records at least for the I-95 corridor. This is an important storm in that regard, although I guess you never know what the end of Feb could hold. I don't like how broad the trough is for the Thursday event; it looks as if the PV is going to squash the heights off the East Coast unless we get a strong phase, and the ridge axis out west is also flat with less than ideal positioning...we only have 552dm heights over Montana with the core of the ridge back towards California. We really need the southern stream shortwave to trend a bit stronger and have the northern branch ready to phase in before the s/w gets caught up in the fast flow and moves offshore, and this is going to be a timing issue for sure. Interestingly, it now seems as if the Monday night storm may actually be the big ticket item despite many believing that Thursday was the best chance for a Nor'easter. The only problem is that we have a mediocre airmass in place for the Monday night threat, so it's probably going to be a rain-->snow deal for the coastline with limited accumulations early in the event. The Thursday storm would almost certainly be almost all snow with -15C 850s prior to the storm. What is your thinking about the pattern breakdown in mid-February? Do we have a true torch or just a couple days in the 40s? The 0z ECM seems to want to build an east-based NAO block with an increasingly -AO by February 16th, with some cold air from the PV left over Eastern Canada, so that might mitigate the warm-up. With the MJO moving towards Phase 6, we're likely to see a moderation, but then the MJO goes towards Phase 7/8 and the blocking looks to return. Could we see a wintry period from February 20th through early March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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