earthlight Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 any word on euro ensembles? North and west of the 00z ensembles..but still a graze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishinfever Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 thanks, at least it was west not east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 My comment would be plain and simple. There is a reason that the Euro has the highest global accuracy scores. End of comment. thoughts on the gfs's handling of the s/w? it flattens it out and doesnt dig as much as the euro. Also the 50/50 low, the gfs kind of hangs back the low to the SW in Canada which drags the PV to the SE and flattens heights on the East coast. The euro has it almost as a seperate entity. Pretty significant upper level differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 thanks, at least it was west not east? Correct...slight improvement in the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 North and west of the 00z ensembles..but still a graze. Just saw the spaghettis. A majority of them are NW of the operational. Surprised the mean is still that far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 You guys are getting too hung up on amounts which, as you know, will change 100 more times Nobody is taking the amounts as a forecast, but w/o seeing maps, it is a good gauge as to how big (in terms of area covered) the overall storm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Nobody is taking the amounts as a forecast, but w/o seeing maps, it is a good gauge as to how big (in terms of area covered) the overall storm is. Sure, that's a good point.....I just like to hear storm track and temps being shown at this timeframe....but I see where your coming from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Sure, that's a good point.....I just like to hear storm track and temps being shown at this timeframe....but I see where your coming from I find the NWS forecast quite encouraging in both regards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 hr 120 low off the sc coast does not look like it will get it done this run...still its def better then the sheared out mess of 12z....gives central nc and southern va a mod snowstorm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 18z GFS definitely trended towards more amplification and thus towards the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 18z GFS definitely trended towards more amplification and thus towards the euro. I have to say that next week is becoming reminiscent of Feb 1994; 2 possible storms after a thaw, both slowly trending north on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 18z big improvements at H5. This has the classic gonna move NW look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 18z big improvements at H5. This has the classic gonna move NW look. Hopefully not too far NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 18z big improvements at H5. This has the classic gonna move NW look. Yeah i feel alot better that we saw improvments on the gfs....being we are 4-5 days out...i really feel we are not in a bad spot...euro came west from last night...its mean is further nw then 00z and the idv has alot of nw members..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah i feel alot better that we saw improvments on the gfs....being we are 4-5 days out...i really feel we are not in a bad spot...euro came west from last night...its mean is further nw then 00z and the idv has alot of nw members..... Certainly cold air available too, we won't have any issue there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The mean is SE of the op, not sure what the spaghetti plots look like. 99% of the time, the mean is SE and weaker of the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 99% of the time, the mean is SE and weaker of the OP and the mean was piss poor for todays non event. I saw the spaghettis, there are definately some solid hits in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The one thing I do know for sure is Tulsa is going to have more snow on the season than some Midwest cities by the time this storm is ready to possibly come up the East Coast...we're talking possibly 30 inches on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The one thing I do know for sure is Tulsa is going to have more snow on the season than some Midwest cities by the time this storm is ready to possibly come up the East Coast...we're talking possibly 30 inches on the season. Is it going to be their alltime snowiest season, SG? We dont normally associate cities of such southern lattitude with big snowstorms lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 00z NAM looks much improved for this storm. Less confluence to the north bearing down and shearing out the shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The shortwave diving down from Canada through California this time is further west and diving deeper into Central Arizona. The other shortwave diving down from Central Canada is also further west diving down toward MN this time instead of Wisconsin. I can only assume that this would mean a better chance of a phase, bringing this thing further up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The GFS at 90 hrs from the previous run had the southwest shortwave over New Mexico and the NAM at 84 hrs this run has the shortwave further west over Arizona. Also the GFS had a strung-out and elongated shortwave across all of southeast Canada and the NAM has a shortwave much more U-shaped with the energy consolidated in the base of the trough that has dug down into Wisconsin through 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I just matched up the NAM 500mb charts at 84 hrs this run vs. the ECMWF 500mb charts at 96 hrs from the previous run (same effective times), and THEY ARE ALMOST A PRECISE MATCH! The NAM would probably yield an even slightly more vigorous storm closer to the coast though as the energy is slightly more vigorous on the NAM and slightly further west. But the BOTH have the western energy in Arizona at that time and the Northern energy diving into Wisconsin near the base of that U shaped trough. Overall though, the NAM's 500mb chart looks slightly more vigorous than even the ECMWF. The GFS looks sadly lost in comparison, but what else is new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I just matched up the NAM 500mb charts at 84 hrs this run vs. the ECMWF 500mb charts at 96 hrs from the previous run (same effective times), and THEY ARE ALMOST A PRECISE MATCH! The NAM would probably yield an even slightly more vigorous storm closer to the coast though as the energy is slightly more vigorous on the NAM and slightly further west. But the BOTH have the western energy in Arizona at that time and the Northern energy diving into Wisconsin near the base of that U shaped trough. Overall though, the NAM's 500mb chart looks slightly more vigorous than even the ECMWF. The GFS looks sadly lost in comparison, but what else is new. NAM is equally unreliable at 84 hours and so far west that you'd again have to be concerned about an eventual low track too far to the west. Fasten your seatbelt for the flip/flopping. I think we have a long way to go before model solutions are reliable on this storm. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 NAM is equally unreliable at 84 hours and so far west that you'd again have to be concerned about an eventual low track too far to the west. Fasten your seatbelt for the flip/flopping. I think we have a long way to go before model solutions are reliable on this storm. WX/PT Yeah, mixing seems to be a concern-- especially if a hit is shown from 5 days out lol. Did you see the LC piece in the other thread? Mixing all the way to the Apps.... it would be ironic if we get an I-95 track (meaning the low tracks over I-95) when we were all worried about OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Yeah, mixing seems to be a concern-- especially if a hit is shown from 5 days out lol. Did you see the LC piece in the other thread? Mixing all the way to the Apps.... it would be ironic if we get an I-95 track (meaning the low tracks over I-95) when we were all worried about OTS. Maybe you misunderstood what I was saying. My concern is getting a reliable solution from a model. I think it could be several days before there are reliable solutions or trends. I do not think we are even close to worrying about "mixing" or a track over I-95. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Maybe you misunderstood what I was saying. My concern is getting a reliable solution from a model. I think it could be several days before there are reliable solutions or trends. I do not think we are even close to worrying about "mixing" or a track over I-95. WX/PT I agree with this. Just look at the way the storm today was modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Maybe you misunderstood what I was saying. My concern is getting a reliable solution from a model. I think it could be several days before there are reliable solutions or trends. I do not think we are even close to worrying about "mixing" or a track over I-95. WX/PT I dont think we will have a fix on this until the early week storm is off the coast. But it seems as though most mets are more worried about mixing rather than OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 hr 108 on the 00z gfs is def a few steps back..not as amp up and pretty weak....hr 114 its about 75 miles se of hse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 hr 120 moving ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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