blazess556 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 KISP .54 in and KFOK .55 in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 So close for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I have seen this before..Dec 19-23rd, every model is suppressed and ots, Misses the phase... but the euro signal held. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 What about lga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 What about lga? KLGA .4 in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 KFWN? I am assuming under .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 KFWN? I am assuming under .25 KFWN is .16 in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 You guys are getting too hung up on amounts which, as you know, will change 100 more times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 looking at the track of the low it looks like most of our precip comes from overrunning instead of the coastal itself...anyone agree/disagree? I don't have access to the in-depth euro data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Take this as you like, but it's the JMA QPF output EDIT - My bad, this is total output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Take this as you like, but it's the JMA QPF output (its all snow) that's the 144 hr qpf, which would include today's precip and anything from the mon/tue non-event. here's the 24 hr qpf for that time period. Still a a very good hit, 0.75-1.00" qpf for PHL-NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 that's the 144 hr qpf, which would include today's precip and anything from the mon/tue non-event. here's the 24 hr qpf for that time period. Still a a very good hit, 0.75-1.00" qpf for PHL-NYC Yea, sorry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 precip is over running and the nw fringe of the deform on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The important thing to me is that it trended further north and west, but generally kept the same idea as it's past several runs (minus the one which had the low going inland). The southern stream shortwave ejects northeast and interacts with the northern stream, amount of interaction to be determined, but regardless the gradient suggests we'll have a shot at overrunning precipitation and then developing deformation as the low hits the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 This is a really good spot for us-- we have some breathing room for the inevitable NW trend. I just hope it doesnt trend too far NW, since we still have 5 days to go, which is an eternity in model land. In the mean time here is some eyecandy courtesy of the NWS and wunderground. http://classic.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=11598 Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow after midnight. Lows around 20. Chance of snow 30 percent. Thursday Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs in the mid 30s. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Blustery and cold with lows around 10 above. Wind chill values as low as zero after midnight. Friday Mostly sunny. A chance of snow in the morning. Blustery and cold with highs in the mid 20s. Chance of snow 30 percent. Wind chill values as low as 5 below in the morning. Based on this, one would think it's a long duration event with the meat of the storm during the day Thursday and Thursday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Those temps indicate some really nice ratios, especially Thursday night..... probably 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The important thing to me is that it trended further north and west, but generally kept the same idea as it's past several runs (minus the one which had the low going inland). The southern stream shortwave ejects northeast and interacts with the northern stream, amount of interaction to be determined, but regardless the gradient suggests we'll have a shot at overrunning precipitation and then developing deformation as the low hits the coast. thoughts on the gfs's handling of the s/w? it flattens it out and doesnt dig as much as the euro. Also the 50/50 low, the gfs kind of hangs back the low to the SW in Canada which drags the PV to the SE and flattens heights on the East coast. The euro has it almost as a seperate entity. Pretty significant upper level differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Alex, Feb '83? LOL. Soooo many big snowstorms in this time period. Starting with Feb 1899 and working our way through 1983, 1994, 2006. There's actually two clusters, one centered around Feb 10 and another centered about a week later, around Pres. Day. A geographically extensive snowstorm of long duration is the one thing this winter has been lacking, maybe this will do it. It's going to be a fun week of tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 thoughts on the gfs's handling of the s/w? it flattens it out and doesnt dig as much as the euro. Also the 50/50 low, the gfs kind of hangs back the low to the SW in Canada which drags the PV to the SE and flattens heights on the East coast. The euro has it almost as a seperate entity. Pretty significant upper level differences Reading some of the mets' thoughts, they seem to be concerned about too much of a NW trend and mixing, rather than OTS. Right now, I think we're in a really good spot. It can keep some variation of this track for the next 3 days and lock in on a significant hit within 48 hours.... no need to see it come any more westerly AT THIS TIME RANGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 A geographically extensive snowstorm of long duration is the one thing this winter has been lacking, maybe this will do it. It's going to be a fun week of tracking. I'm gonna put in my request that this one hit us DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. Haven't seen too much of that this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I'm gonna put in my request that this one hit us DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. Haven't seen too much of that this season. Haha, same here. Did you check your NWS forecast? It seems to fit the bill quite nicely-- according to our local forecast it starts snowing Wednesday Night and continues through Thursday and Thursday Night and ends Friday Morning. The other thing about this potential I really like are the temps, which should make for some nice ratios. Let's just hope it nudges just a bit more west, without going too far west, because another characteristic of this winter has been the tendency to have storms trend NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Reading some of the mets' thoughts, they seem to be concerned about too much of a NW trend and mixing, rather than OTS. Right now, I think we're in a really good spot. It can keep some variation of this track for the next 3 days and lock in on a significant hit within 48 hours.... no need to see it come any more westerly AT THIS TIME RANGE. yeah i like where we stand, i still dont understand why models are flat and supressed tho. Its not like the NAO is -3 and -6 AO. Gonna be interesting. I feel like we are in the same spot as the december storm kinda minus the insane blocking...This will continue to trend NW most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 yeah i like where we stand, i still dont understand why models are flat and supressed tho. Its not like the NAO is -3 and -6 AO. Gonna be interesting. I feel like we are in the same spot as the december storm kinda minus the insane blocking...This will continue to trend NW most likely Exactly. The weakly neg nao is not enough to supress this and there isnt any spv sitting over maine or NF sending down over powering confluence. The nina pattern is firmly in place now, expect a trend nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Exactly. The weakly neg nao is not enough to supress this and there isnt any spv sitting over maine or NF sending down over powering confluence. The nina pattern is firmly in place now, expect a trend nw. Maybe its the fast progressive flow of La Nina that's sending ots on the other models, or would that lead to a further NW track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 yeah i like where we stand, i still dont understand why models are flat and supressed tho. Its not like the NAO is -3 and -6 AO. Gonna be interesting. I feel like we are in the same spot as the december storm kinda minus the insane blocking...This will continue to trend NW most likely Do we even have a neg NAO/AO for that time period? If not, I think it's all PV related suppression. If the NAO/AO are even a little positive, you have to worry about a correction too far to the west, so let's hope that the PV and NAO/AO fight to a draw in their little tug of war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Maybe its the fast progressive flow of La Nina that's sending ots on the other models, or would that lead to a further NW track? there is that and none of the other models involve the northern stream where as the euro does get some of it involved. The trend has been to phase this winter and I don't see that stopping. I would be far more worried about an inland solution right now than something OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Comparing the 18z NAM to the 12z GFS, the NAM would definitely be much less suppressed than the gfs. NAM has higher height in the east and the pv is further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishinfever Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 any word on euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 any word on euro ensembles? The mean is SE of the op, not sure what the spaghetti plots look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishinfever Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 have they come west from previous runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.