Allsnow Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 hr 126 low over the pandhandel of fl...light over running snow to dc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 At 132 hrs. there is a sub 1004mb low over SE GA. Precip shield up the NYC, moderate precip to S NJ. 850 line and 32 degree line run through NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 132 hrs has a sub 1004mb low in GA...looks S and E of it's 12z run but a gorgeous signal. Nice snowstorm for the Southern M/A through 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 138 hours 1000mb over HSE maybe a hair east. Huge hit for NC/Eastern VA up to OC MD ...moderate hit to DC through DE and Southern NJ. Moderate snow falling at that time to about PHL. Signal is beaming if you ask me..awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 at 138 hrs. there is a sub 1000 mb low near Hatteras. Moderate precip to north of Atlantic City. 850 line to DelMarva. Heading out to sea at 144 hrs. Oh well. It is a brush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 144 hours it slips just East of the BM and never gets too far north. But honestly...everybody is 50-100 miles from missing a gigantic CCB with huge QPF. Cool run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 EC DAY 6: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Anybody in this subforum who looks at that 132 hour panel and doesn't get excited given this lead time should probably just take a nap until April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 At least it seems to be trending in the right direction. That's all we can ask for at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 John, What are your thoughts? 144 hours it slips just East of the BM and never gets too far north. But honestly...everybody is 50-100 miles from missing a gigantic CCB with huge QPF. Cool run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 At least it seems to be trending in the right direction. That's all we can ask for at this point! Well, technically it trended away from it's 12z run which was snowy...but it's a completely better look when compared to the GFS...it's very close to producing a big storm for the entire I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 144 hours it slips just East of the BM and never gets too far north. But honestly...everybody is 50-100 miles from missing a gigantic CCB with huge QPF. Cool run. I think this fits the trends of the season perfectly. We still do not know what's going on but it looks very promising. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 looks like a typical Miller A with lots of precip out ahead of the main event - I got a tad nervous when Tombo mentioned in the Philly thread that heights were a tad lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 This setup is awesome, can't wait to see what models show once we get within 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 John, What are your thoughts? Posted them here yesterday..not much has changed since then. Still very encouraged...I think this has the potential to be a moderate or greater type snowstorm from DC northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Thanks. Posted them here yesterday..not much has changed since then. Still very encouraged...I think this has the potential to be a moderate or greater type snowstorm from DC northward. http://www.americanw...post__p__430390 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Well, technically it trended away from it's 12z run which was snowy...but it's a completely better look when compared to the GFS...it's very close to producing a big storm for the entire I-95 corridor. I dont know if this is entirely psychological or not, but I always feel there is much more hope when a storm is progged to miss us slightly to the east than if it's progged to miss us slightly to the west. These kinds of trends seem easier to correct.... perhaps because storms usually amplify a bit more than what global models show at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I dont know if this is entirely psychological or not, but I always feel there is much more hope when a storm is progged to miss us slightly to the east than if it's progged to miss us slightly to the west. These kinds of trends seem easier to correct.... perhaps because storms usually amplify a bit more than what global models show at this time range. If the storm is going to cut west, its usually pretty obvious as was last weeks storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I dont know if this is entirely psychological or not, but I always feel there is much more hope when a storm is progged to miss us slightly to the east than if it's progged to miss us slightly to the west. These kinds of trends seem easier to correct.... perhaps because storms usually amplify a bit more than what global models show at this time range. Your last point is the key here. The global models usually won't catch on to the major amplification at this lead time, which is why historically when storms are forecasted to be to our south and east at this time frame, they have a tendency to back west. Unless you're the GGEM...that thing can wrap a surface low over Pittsburgh even with 250kt westerly wind at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I love how after this storm it shoves the 850 line down into Mexico south of Texas and into the central Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 If the storm is going to cut west, its usually pretty obvious as was last weeks storm. It usually shows up that way on the Euro with the GFS usual SE bias giving east coasters hope (which is what the last storm did.) Actually that storm kept cutting further and further west on the models as they corrected for the increased amount of amplification that was indicated. I think storms tend to (usually) verify a bit west of model progs at this time range, especially when you have a huge thermoclinic zone just off the east coast with abnormally warm water (the reason we've been seeing so many bombs this winter.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I'm off to bed, glad to see the Euro was worth staying up for. Thanks to those who gave the pbp. I feel pretty confident in saying that a MECS will occur in the next ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Most models are south and east at this point, but not by much, and this far the details are still up in the air but this has MECS written all over it---plenty of time for the models to catch on to certain details that will determine whether it will stay south and east or trend westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Trying to extrapolate the 84 hr NAM, which is dangerous to attempt, but it does dive the northern stream energy diving down strongly from Canada and it definitely looks to me that it will meet up with the southern stream energy coming out of the west. Don't know what exactly this means in the end though. Any thoughts anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njwinter Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Just read JB's SAT AM POST . This dude is full of it. He keeps calling for an end to winter. How many times can he revise his forecast and then take credit for being right. I paid for his sight years ago and he did make some bold predictions that came to fruition but then he started making some major bust. I finally caught on to his hype machine. I just got a free trial and I see he is still at. I think he is a fraud. His buddy HM is one of the worst forecasters I have e Ed seen. How many times does he start off by saying the storm didn't get as strong as I thought it would or it snowed west of where I thought it would. And how many times can one change his snow maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Just read JB's SAT AM POST . This dude is full of it. He keeps calling for an end to winter. How many times can he revise his forecast and then take credit for being right. I paid for his sight years ago and he did make some bold predictions that came to fruition but then he started making some major bust. I finally caught on to his hype machine. I just got a free trial and I see he is still at. I think he is a fraud. His buddy HM is one of the worst forecasters I have e Ed seen. How many times does he start off by saying the storm didn't get as strong as I thought it would or it snowed west of where I thought it would. And how many times can one change his snow maps? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/12572-what-does-insert-the-person-you-are-asking-about-say-about-the-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Well I see nobody threw the 6Z DGEX out there yet so here it is - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 thats a big jump west from its 18z run but it is the dgex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 thats a big jump west from its 18z run but it is the dgex. Yea, take DGEX with a grain of salt but at least the storm is still there. All models definitly honking this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 the short wave in the south on monday night needs to phase with the energy in the northern plains... blowing up a coastal and leaving less energy behind to compress the height field. the gfs is less phased than the euro, and you can see the short wave over the upper great lakes on tuesday creating a very fast flow beneath it. this doesn't allow the short wave moving east out of the southern rockies to amplify enough. our best case would be a euro like scenario, where strong energy comes out of the west, but doesn't phase with the polar vortex. this way, there's less chance for it to cut west the idea of a compressed height field is winning. i don't like the recent trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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