wxologist Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 site is not updated yet through 120hrs over the east but through 96 it doesn't show much, except one, and that is the storm which set the stage for PDII. http://www.eas.slu.e...COSN&sort=FINAL The CIPS analogs had problems running after F060 today. We had missing grids that are used to find the analogs after F060. We are working on a fix for this (i.e., get data from another source if ours is incomplete) but have not had time to implement it yet. Hopefully things will be back to normal on tonight's 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The CIPS analogs had problems running after F060 today. We had missing grids that are used to find the analogs after F060. We are working on a fix for this (i.e., get data from another source if ours is incomplete) but have not had time to implement it yet. Hopefully things will be back to normal on tonight's 00z run. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=060&flg=new&map=COSN&sort=FINAL 02/11/06 is the #1 analog over the Oh Valley through the Gulf at 60 hours...other than that no support on that frame for a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 00z gfs still a miss, but the trends are what count at this timerange, and from 18z, its a whole lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yes, very typical and clear southeast bias showing with the GFS. 00z gfs still a miss, but the trends are what count at this timerange, and from 18z, its a whole lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The insane height gradient and the deep trough definitely argue for the potential for a very strong system, but also argue for one that should move very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 00z gfs still a miss, but the trends are what count at this timerange, and from 18z, its a whole lot better. The evolution from 126-132 hours is crazy...I don't know what the GFS is doing, it tries to lose the Gulf low and develop a coastal over NC...this ultimately speeds everything up and prevents the northern wave from having any chance to phase...ultimately I think if we don't get that crazy jump from 126-132 we get a big storm at 138-144 hours because the northern stream probably catches that developing Gulf low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 All that you really need to do is look at the setup at H5 and know that plenty of potential exists. Man if that pattern depicted comes even remotely close to verifying, one could argue it is very favorable for an east coast snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 If the GFS makes the nothern low stronger we will see coastal rain. As shown here you can see the low over Sudbury OT forces the high into a very bad position. I would trust the ECMWF runs much better at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The evolution from 126-132 hours is crazy...I don't know what the GFS is doing, it tries to lose the Gulf low and develop a coastal over NC...this ultimately speeds everything up and prevents the northern wave from having any chance to phase...ultimately I think if we don't get that crazy jump from 126-132 we get a big storm at 138-144 hours because the northern stream probably catches that developing Gulf low. The GFS loves shearing out southern stream waves. And it will do that especially in a very sharp height gradient trough pattern like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The evolution from 126-132 hours is crazy...I don't know what the GFS is doing, it tries to lose the Gulf low and develop a coastal over NC...this ultimately speeds everything up and prevents the northern wave from having any chance to phase...ultimately I think if we don't get that crazy jump from 126-132 we get a big storm at 138-144 hours because the northern stream probably catches that developing Gulf low. Yea I find it funny it has the northern shortwave just kind of 'chilling' in Canada, don't buy it. Such a depiction at H5 would favor the northern shortwave being forced under the confluence and phasing into the base of the trough drawing the southern shortwave north and resulting in the formation of a coastal storm. But it would be dumb to quibble over the GFS depiction, based on the representation at 500mb, the signal is strong and favorable for an east coast snowstorm. Just need the components to come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GFS did look really close, it almost seems confused with what to do with all of this. Still big potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Looks like the UKIE has a 990 something low just outside the cape at 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 If the GFS makes the nothern low stronger we will see coastal rain. As shown here you can see the low over Sudbury OT forces the high into a very bad position. I would trust the ECMWF runs much better at this time. Such a solution makes no sense however, it is unreasonable to assume that the northern shortwave will cut right up into the confluence, more likely it phases into the system. That is more like what the EURO shows, which I feel is handling the interaction of the shortwaves better, based on the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Such a solution makes no sense however, it is unreasonable to assume that the northern shortwave will cut right up into the confluence, more likely it phases into the system. That is more like what the EURO shows, which I feel is handling the interaction of the shortwaves better, based on the setup. That's pretty much what he said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 That's pretty much what he said Well aware...thanks for the clarification though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Can you provide a link for these maps? Looks like the UKIE has a 990 something low just outside the cape at 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 ggem looks like ukmet. Takes the surface low from Louisianna to east of cape code from 120 to 144 hours. Here is 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GGEM H 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 NOGAPS continues to be way suppressed off the SE Coast...probably good given it nailed the last few events which were quite far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 NOGAPS continues to be way suppressed off the SE Coast...probably good given it nailed the last few events which were quite far west. SG what do you think of the trend of the GFS so far? Don put up a nice animated loop of the past three runs to show the trend; it sounds like most are upbeat about the potential for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GFS did look really close, it almost seems confused with what to do with all of this. Still big potential. Yup, all that counts at this time is the trend. You can make a convincing argument that you dont want a direct "hit" at this time frame anyway, since the solution is likely to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The GFS initially had the most recent Midwest Blizzard as an EC snow event. Over time, it trended west. The GFS will pick up in initial S/W's globally, show signicant EC events, and then lose them in the 4-6 day period, only to trend back to major EC event. It's rather typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Very true. I know the GFS will trend stronger and further west. For this the ECMWF is king. It is the better model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 At 108 hrs. we have a nice 50/50 low in place and a low developing over Eastern TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 At 114 hrs. we have a 964mb 50/50 low and the low is taking shape over LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 At 120 hrs. it looks like a 952mb 50/50 low and the low is taking shape over about New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 hr 120 00z euro looks similiar to the 12z...low in southern LA......light over running snow to WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 EC DAY 5: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 At 126 hrs. there is a close sub 1008 low over the panhandle of FL. Precip streaming all the way up to SW PA. 50/50 low in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.