EasternLI Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Exactly. GFS Miss and Euro hit at this time range is our best combo. With the last storm at this range, we had GFS hit and Euro cutter and we all saw how that turned out. This is still screaming big potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'll be curious to see the CIPS analogs. BTW what model do they base them off of? site is not updated yet through 120hrs over the east but through 96 it doesn't show much, except one, and that is the storm which set the stage for PDII. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=096&flg=new&map=COSN&sort=FINAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 DGEX barely whiffs but I like what I see. Nice hit for the Mid-Atlantic..and great signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 John, if this really is the pattern changing storm, I hope we get the overrunning plus the bomb, so we can have an MA/NE areawide big snowstorm-- the one thing this season has lacked so far. With the increased sensitivity due to prior storminess, the major media outlets seem to be picking up on the potential for a big snowstorm and so let the hype begin lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 John, if this really is the pattern changing storm, I hope we get the overrunning plus the bomb, so we can have an MA/NE areawide big snowstorm-- the one thing this season has lacked so far. With the increased sensitivity due to prior storminess, the major media outlets seem to be picking up on the potential for a big snowstorm and so let the hype begin lol. Alex I think the idea of this being a pattern changing storm is definitely correct, but it takes a couple days before we actually see moderation. There have been many pattern changing storms that usher in a ridge immediately reaching 50's just days later (feb 2006). This will be much different even though it does technically change the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 John, if this really is the pattern changing storm, I hope we get the overrunning plus the bomb, so we can have an MA/NE areawide big snowstorm-- the one thing this season has lacked so far. With the increased sensitivity due to prior storminess, the major media outlets seem to be picking up on the potential for a big snowstorm and so let the hype begin lol. Agree....we need to bring this forum together...with a huge KU storm for all. Too many fragmented sub-forums lately IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Agree....we need to bring this forum together...with a huge KU storm for all. Too many fragmented sub-forums lately IMHO. I live in TTN how do you think I feel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 lol no wonder Ray doesnt like coming home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z gefs are all a complete miss and I am not surprised, it seems the GEFS have gone back to their usual following the leader as of late. This is how they would normally act before they were outperforming the OP for big threats earlier in the season. And when I saw outperforming, I am not speaking of scoring, I am talking about just observing them on a day to day basis and how they were really calling out the OP earlier in the year when it had the wrong idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z gefs are all a complete miss and I am not surprised, it seems the GEFS have gone back to their usual following the leader as of late. This is how they would normally act before they were outperforming the OP for big threats earlier in the season. And when I saw outperforming, I am not speaking of scoring, I am talking about just observing them on a day to day basis and how they were really calling out the OP earlier in the year when it had the wrong idea. I believe this was also the case with the Chicago Blizzard, the EURO was the first one to see that it was going to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The GFS tends to be too surpressed at this stage. It is a good sign for a coastal instead of an inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I agree. I think we are exactly where we want to be. However, it should start re-showing its face on the GFS OP by 6z tomorrow at the latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I agree. I think we are exactly where we want to be. However, it should start re-showing its face on the GFS OP by 6z tomorrow at the latest. I hope so but I have the "feeling" that like with all the other storms this season, we wont truly know until 48 hrs prior to the event and it will probably be the 0z or 12z run; the 6z and 18z runs seem to have been having some wild swings lately. We probably want that early week storm to exit the coast first before committing to a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I hope so but I have the "feeling" that like with all the other storms this season, we wont truly know until 48 hrs prior to the event and it will probably be the 0z or 12z run; the 6z and 18z runs seem to have been having some wild swings lately. We probably want that early week storm to exit the coast first before committing to a solution. This one has a lot of potential. Tons of energy swinging through both northern and southern branches, and the right combo could be huge, along with a cooperative PV and any blocking we can muster. I'm optimistic right now, but it's hard to be this far out. In a few days we can hopefully start latching onto something here. But hopefully first the Tuesday threat overperforms and we get a few inches or more out of that one. That can maybe set up some resistance so that the next one doesn't cut west if the phasing takes place in a bad spot for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 This one has a lot of potential. Tons of energy swinging through both northern and southern branches, and the right combo could be huge, along with a cooperative PV and any blocking we can muster. I'm optimistic right now, but it's hard to be this far out. In a few days we can hopefully start latching onto something here. But hopefully first the Tuesday threat overperforms and we get a few inches or more out of that one. That can maybe set up some resistance so that the next one doesn't cut west if the phasing takes place in a bad spot for us. agree across the board. I think that if there was a possibility of this phasing in an a bad location for us, the EURO would show it, and if it doesn't show that kind of solution in the next day or 2 (since it usually latches on to a change in model solutions first...key word usually) I think we can start narrowing down the possibilities. We definitely want PV interaction if this is to be a major storm but the caveat with that is the location of the PV is less than ideal so who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I live in TTN how do you think I feel? the same as me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 agree across the board. I think that if there was a possibility of this phasing in an a bad location for us, the EURO would show it, and if it doesn't show that kind of solution in the next day or 2 (since it usually latches on to a change in model solutions first...key word usually) I think we can start narrowing down the possibilities. We definitely want PV interaction if this is to be a major storm but the caveat with that is the location of the PV is less than ideal so who knows I imagine if the "threat" solidifies over the next few days, we can start looking for decent analogs-- that time period (as has been mentioned before) is a veritable who's who of some of the all time greats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I imagine if the "threat" solidifies over the next few days, we can start looking for decent analogs-- that time period (as has been mentioned before) is a veritable who's who of some of the all time greats. Yup for sure. I think that if we lose the PV phase signal then honestly this is probably just a run of the mill miller A with plentiful moisture. Or it goes harmlessly OTS. If we see the PV phase signal come back then we can start to suspect a more inland track or something that if timed perfectly could create an HECS. Obviously this wont be ironed out anytime in the near future but it is something we can all think about. Does anyone know off the top of their head of any major storms in the past that featured PV phasing (other then March 93 and March 2001--- which btw I was looking at today on the NARR on psu ewall and it nearly brought me to tears how close we were to a BECS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I have to hire a bulldozer monday to remove the glaciers in my workyard i think i'll wait t with the storminess coming our way climatology is on our side thats for sure see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yup for sure. I think that if we lose the PV phase signal then honestly this is probably just a run of the mill miller A with plentiful moisture. Or it goes harmlessly OTS. If we see the PV phase signal come back then we can start to suspect a more inland track or something that if timed perfectly could create an HECS. Obviously this wont be ironed out anytime in the near future but it is something we can all think about. Does anyone know off the top of their head of any major storms in the past that featured PV phasing (other then March 93 and March 2001--- which btw I was looking at today on the NARR on psu ewall and it nearly brought me to tears how close we were to a BECS) Yeah, I still remember those forecasts of 2-3 feet. And then Will had to go and say it would have been better for us than Jan 1996 had it worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I have to hire a bulldozer monday to remove the glaciers in my workyard i think i'll wait t with the storminess coming our way climatology is on our side thats for sure see ya. Didnt you say you wanted to open a second shop in Boston? Youll probably have more snow than you know what to do with Mulen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah, I still remember those forecasts of 2-3 feet. And then Will had to go and say it would have been better for us than Jan 1996 had it worked out. I've learned so much this winter because of the constant storm threats and subsequent tracking, which has given me a new appreciation for that storm. Looking at the re-analysis maps of March 2001 it was really interesting because the PV which at first was north of Maine rotated southwestward seemingly being pushed by the blocking upstream and at first it looked like it may actually phase too early, but it kind of meandered south east after entering the CONUS allowing the southern stream to escape slightly. Literally either the PV being 6 hours faster or the southern stream being 6 hours slower or something in between would have been the end of the world for the I-95 corridor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Alex if you ever need tires i'm right iver the bridge i'll make it worth your while just lookup Bronxtire center i'll give you the weenie discount LOL i have never seen so many potholes closest analog 94 hands down i must of repaired half a dozen wheels last week. Just ask for Jeff were there 56yrs and still chugging along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yup for sure. I think that if we lose the PV phase signal then honestly this is probably just a run of the mill miller A with plentiful moisture. Or it goes harmlessly OTS. If we see the PV phase signal come back then we can start to suspect a more inland track or something that if timed perfectly could create an HECS. Obviously this wont be ironed out anytime in the near future but it is something we can all think about. Does anyone know off the top of their head of any major storms in the past that featured PV phasing (other then March 93 and March 2001--- which btw I was looking at today on the NARR on psu ewall and it nearly brought me to tears how close we were to a BECS) jan 66 jan/feb 78 (twice) feb 95: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1995/us0205.php valentine's day 07: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2007/us0215.php march 05: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2005/us0308.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I've learned so much this winter because of the constant storm threats and subsequent tracking, which has given me a new appreciation for that storm. Looking at the re-analysis maps of March 2001 it was really interesting because the PV which at first was north of Maine rotated southwestward seemingly being pushed by the blocking upstream and at first it looked like it may actually phase too early, but it kind of meandered south east after entering the CONUS allowing the southern stream to escape slightly. Literally either the PV being 6 hours faster or the southern stream being 6 hours slower or something in between would have been the end of the world for the I-95 corridor... Yeah, the mistake the GFS made was a really small matter of timing, but the end result was HUGE.... fruit for thought when people go bashing the models (even back then.) That season the GFS did exceptionally well with the Millenium Storm, so people gave its solution more credence, but the Euro and then the ETA (old NAM) had the right idea in the short range, just like they did in Jan 1996. This is the combo you want for big Miller As. GFS might be better with Miller Bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 jan 66 jan/feb 78 (twice) feb 95: http://www.meteo.psu...1995/us0205.php valentine's day 07: http://www.meteo.psu...2007/us0215.php march 05: http://www.meteo.psu...2005/us0308.php forky how do you feel about the threat? The models seemed to move away from having a major PV interaction in the last 24 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 What is a Miller A and B? I'm sort of new to those terms. Thanks in advance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 jan 66 jan/feb 78 (twice) feb 95: http://www.meteo.psu...1995/us0205.php valentine's day 07: http://www.meteo.psu...2007/us0215.php march 05: http://www.meteo.psu...2005/us0308.php Are these all Miller As or a Miller A/B mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 What is a Miller A and B? I'm sort of new to those terms. Thanks in advance... http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/weatherblog/11094/Miller-A-Vs.-Miller-B-Storms:--Miller-B-Storms-Are-Not-Slam-Dunks-for-Heavy-Snow-In-Philaelphia-Poin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 forky how do you feel about the threat? The models seemed to move away from having a major PV interaction in the last 24 hours... the short wave in the south on monday night needs to phase with the energy in the northern plains... blowing up a coastal and leaving less energy behind to compress the height field. the gfs is less phased than the euro, and you can see the short wave over the upper great lakes on tuesday creating a very fast flow beneath it. this doesn't allow the short wave moving east out of the southern rockies to amplify enough. our best case would be a euro like scenario, where strong energy comes out of the west, but doesn't phase with the polar vortex. this way, there's less chance for it to cut west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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