CooL Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html am i seeing things or is the ggem NOT a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 you are correct and it wasn't a cutter yesterday either. All we can possibly ask for now is the storm to continue to show up in various forms like the globals show it today because thy all have cold solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 DT changes his mind every three seconds. He posts a new fb update every two minutes about another model run and it's solution. I have a hard time ever deciphering what he is calling for. Just purely based on models depiction of the evolving pattern, especially at H5, I would argue against an interior track. The earlier storm in the period as everyone mentions helps to set the stage. With an arctic air mass moving in, a pseudo block, and a huge polar vortex with strong confluence I highly doubt this storm cuts. I believe the progression of the trough allows for an initial overruning snowfall followed by coastal development. The first storm is worth keeping an eye on also. Plenty of times this year the setup might not be the most favorable, often without blocking, but snowstorms have occured. I think a major help has been the constant polar vortex and confluence, maybe this can be attributed to the EPO/PNA phases. Regardless this setup looks favorable and similar to past winter storms this year, I remain pretty optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 DT Favoring an inland track with rain for the cities....says euro and gfs are wrong and ggem is right. I think he's nuts to not at least think it's a possibility that dr no and the gfs in relative agreement of a more southeastern track could be correct but who knows Where/When does he say this?! GGem is NOT inland as of todays' 12z, so in context this makes no sense... Here's his latest from facebook: >> ** ALERT ***12z EUR0 MODEL FEB 4 RUN: New European Model slides FEB 10 Low to the EAST!? Yes it does. FEB 9 heavy snow over ARK TN KY far northern MS far northern AL far Northrn GA western NC .. FEB 10 HEAVY SNOW over all of VA... and WVA... RAIN over GS SC NCabout an hour ago<< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Where/When does he say this?! GGem is NOT inland as of todays' 12z, so in context this makes no sense... Here's his latest from facebook: >> ** ALERT ***12z EUR0 MODEL FEB 4 RUN: New European Model slides FEB 10 Low to the EAST!? Yes it does. FEB 9 heavy snow over ARK TN KY far northern MS far northern AL far Northrn GA western NC .. FEB 10 HEAVY SNOW over all of VA... and WVA... RAIN over GS SC NCabout an hour ago<< Read all of his comments. Like I said it is hard to decipher his thoughts, probably does that on purpose. You have to realize in the world of meteorology you need to just pick a side, using you understanding of weather. He posts almost every model run but that is NOT his forecast. You can see by his comments that he is calling for an interior cutting storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yes it is strange how forecasters pick and choose the data to match their forecasts as well as changing their long range calls several times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yes it is strange how forecasters pick and choose the data to match their forecasts as well as changing their long range calls several times! Well adjusting a forecast is often practical and necessary. Although a few days ago I thought the pattern was not favorable, things can and have changed. I think it is prudent to alter a forecast if a change has become apparent. If you asked me earlier this week if I thought next week had potential to produce two snowstorms, I would have replied no. I don't think I could say the same thing anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Can we not turn this into a thread about what DT says ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Read all of his comments. Like I said it is hard to decipher his thoughts, probably does that on purpose. You have to realize in the world of meteorology you need to just pick a side, using you understanding of weather. He posts almost every model run but that is NOT his forecast. You can see by his comments that he is calling for an interior cutting storm system. Ok, here's where the misunderstanding comes from: He's referring to the 150 ggem, which, WITH RESPECT TO HIS HOMELAND VA, IS INLAND.. he often makes his comments based on how things affect Va. He really should try and be more specific in his comments.. If he wants to say something is thus and such for his Back Yard, he should say so! He gets readers from all locales, yet hes made these kinds of vague or misleading comments alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm not discounting the possibity of a cutter but as good as DT ishe is very resistant to changing his forecast once he's made a call. Not saying he's wrong but his call was for 3 Midwestern storms and he believes he'll be correct. I think it'd be wise of him to at least look at model clustering to a more coastal track as a sign that this may not be a cutter but we are still 5-6 days out and much will likely change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Can we not turn this into a thread about what DT says ? Agreed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Can we not turn this into a thread about what DT says ? Uhm, its NOT about what he says, but what he says IS often relevant and alot of posters are interested in what he says, as they are also interested in what a lot of mets say.. If hes commenting about a storm we are discussing, the nature of his comments probably Should be referred to.. Why would you want to intentionally omit information from an informed and respected source?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mtnclimber Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 He hasn't recovered from his Boxing Day debacle. DT changes his mind every three seconds. He posts a new fb update every two minutes about another model run and it's solution. I have a hard time ever deciphering what he is calling for. Just purely based on models depiction of the evolving pattern, especially at H5, I would argue against an interior track. The earlier storm in the period as everyone mentions helps to set the stage. With an arctic air mass moving in, a pseudo block, and a huge polar vortex with strong confluence I highly doubt this storm cuts. I believe the progression of the trough allows for an initial overruning snowfall followed by coastal development. The first storm is worth keeping an eye on also. Plenty of times this year the setup might not be the most favorable, often without blocking, but snowstorms have occured. I think a major help has been the constant polar vortex and confluence, maybe this can be attributed to the EPO/PNA phases. Regardless this setup looks favorable and similar to past winter storms this year, I remain pretty optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Someone should start a "DT says" thread. It always seems to find a way into these discussions and inevitably wastes a page or two with people posting their reactions. I know he often brings valuable analysis, but so do many of our resident mets and posters. There's no need to dwell on one individual time and time again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Unconscious slip by PHL NWS... Thursday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Night: The snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Someone should start a "DT says" thread. It always seems to find a way into these discussions and inevitably wastes a page or two with people posting their reactions. I know he often brings valuable analysis, but so do many of our resident mets and posters. There's no need to dwell on one individual time and time again. Even better, throw JB, DT, Henry M etc says posts in their too. In fact, here you go, I have started the thread, that way these threads can be about discussion,models etc and not requestes for what met says what, etc. etc. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/12572-what-does-insert-the-person-you-are-asking-about-say-about-the-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Unconscious slip by PHL NWS... Thursday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Night: The snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. That is awesome. Clearly a snow hound who got a little to excited over the euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Unconscious slip by PHL NWS... Thursday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Night: The snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Sounds like they like the looks of the threat.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 HPC's afternoon thoughts. 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS: THE 12Z/04 GFS HAS BACKED OFF ITS BIG E COAST SNOWSTORM FOR THU....TAKING A WEAK WAVE ACROSS THE SERN STATES VERY FLAT AND VERY FAR S...A COMPLETE TURNABOUT FROM ITS 00Z RUN. THE 12Z/04 UKMET AND CANADIAN TRENDED FLATTER WITH THE SYS. NOW...IT IS THE 12Z/04 ECMWF WHICH DEPICTS THE HIGHEST THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW FROM THE OH VLY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENG THU. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. A CHANGE UPSTREAM IN THE NEW ECMWF RUN DAY 6 IN THE ERN PACIFIC...IF CORRECT...COULD IMPACT THE DOWNSTREAM SYS OVER THE ERN STATES. A MUCH DEEPER THAN CONTINUITY PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ALONG 140W WILL HELP KEEP THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN EARLIER ECMWF RUNS WITH COLDER THICKNESSES THRU THE COASTAL PLAIN THU. FINAL GRAPHICS FLATTENED THE SYS OVER THE SERN STATES FOR THU BEFORE WE SAW THE NEW ECMWF BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS ADJUSTMENT IS LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishinfever Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 anyone have info on euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 anyone have info on euro ensembles? They look like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishinfever Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I now have access to Euros precip images (6 HR images). Precip field on today's 12z Euro looks very similiar to past I-95 snow events from this winter thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I now have access to Euros precip images (6 HR images). Precip field on today's 12z Euro looks very similiar to past I-95 snow events from this winter thus far. Yes, agreed. Too bad its so far away, but still, good to see the euro get colder, not warmer today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yes, agreed. Too bad its so far away, but still, good to see the euro get colder, not warmer today. Yea and its depiction at H5 is much more supportive of a snowstorm, all related to how it handles system #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z GFS is still supressed which is right where we want this model at this range. For the past two weeks every storm it has shown in a perfect spot this far out has trended poorly as the GFS is back to its supressive bias again without the high latitiude blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z GFS is still supressed which is right where we want this model at this range. For the past two weeks every storm it has shown in a perfect spot this far out has trended poorly as the GFS is back to its supressive bias again without the high latitiude blocking. extremely good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 HPC's afternoon thoughts. 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS: THE 12Z/04 GFS HAS BACKED OFF ITS BIG E COAST SNOWSTORM FOR THU....TAKING A WEAK WAVE ACROSS THE SERN STATES VERY FLAT AND VERY FAR S...A COMPLETE TURNABOUT FROM ITS 00Z RUN. THE 12Z/04 UKMET AND CANADIAN TRENDED FLATTER WITH THE SYS. NOW...IT IS THE 12Z/04 ECMWF WHICH DEPICTS THE HIGHEST THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW FROM THE OH VLY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENG THU. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. A CHANGE UPSTREAM IN THE NEW ECMWF RUN DAY 6 IN THE ERN PACIFIC...IF CORRECT...COULD IMPACT THE DOWNSTREAM SYS OVER THE ERN STATES. A MUCH DEEPER THAN CONTINUITY PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ALONG 140W WILL HELP KEEP THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN EARLIER ECMWF RUNS WITH COLDER THICKNESSES THRU THE COASTAL PLAIN THU. FINAL GRAPHICS FLATTENED THE SYS OVER THE SERN STATES FOR THU BEFORE WE SAW THE NEW ECMWF BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS ADJUSTMENT IS LOW. Honestly, and Im sure most will agree, this is still a lot better than "Mr. Flood's" depiction of an apps runner yesterday. Much rather have it miss than do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z GFS is still supressed which is right where we want this model at this range. For the past two weeks every storm it has shown in a perfect spot this far out has trended poorly as the GFS is back to its supressive bias again without the high latitiude blocking. Exactly. GFS Miss and Euro hit at this time range is our best combo. With the last storm at this range, we had GFS hit and Euro cutter and we all saw how that turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I now have access to Euros precip images (6 HR images). Precip field on today's 12z Euro looks very similiar to past I-95 snow events from this winter thus far. I'll be curious to see the CIPS analogs. BTW what model do they base them off of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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