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Feb 3-6 Observations


Rankin5150

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woo hoo - kudos for sure to lookout!

snowing! (no sleet, all snow) :snowman:

i think my other post was premature by just a few minutes lol. its coming down now...seems to be mostly sleet. your post a page or so back will hopefully be right and give us at least a couple of hours of some snow

lol thanks. I would feel better though if I wasn't getting so screwed here. only periods of light rain mixed with sleet. Significant Precip just won't make it here and by the time it does, it's going to be rain. So yet another one you get it and I don't lol. :gun_bandana:

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lol thanks. I would feel better though if I wasn't getting so screwed here. only periods of light rain mixed with sleet. Significant Precip just won't make it here and by the time it does, it's going to be rain. So yet another one you get it and I don't lol.

well that sucks - hopefully the heavier returns will reach you in time.

parts of alabama have apparently gone to wsw now with a couple of inches. hopefully that bodes well for n ga and the upstate/nc

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We have light snow in Oconee SC by granny!!!

Kudos to you Lookout!

Wow! The RUC analysis at 925mb must be totally off. Its looking increasingly likely that the NW Upstate of SC is going to get some snowfall... perhaps even some minor accumulations (trace to 1"). Folks in Pickens, Greenville, Spartainburg... be on the lookout!

1sfx4w.jpg

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lol thanks. I would feel better though if I wasn't getting so screwed here. only periods of light rain mixed with sleet. Significant Precip just won't make it here and by the time it does, it's going to be rain. So yet another one you get it and I don't lol.

You're getting what I'm getting I think? Yes, mainly rain with maybe a little sleet mixed in at times. 36.5 now and still falling though. WB 35.2. No wind at all right now.

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We have light snow in Oconee SC by granny!!!

Kudos to you Lookout!

Just glad it worked out lol...well for everyone but me of course. The far northwest upstate/sw nc might fair pretty well. Robert has already touched on it but this area has been the target of the models for the slowest warm up, both in the boundary layer and the mid levels. And with precip looking pretty well organized and heading that way, might be a nice evening for you guys. I'm not saying everyone will but Would not be surprised if snow/sleet or some combo of mix hangs on in the far northwest upstate, extreme ne ga, and western nc for a good part of the night.

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Wow! The RUC analysis at 925mb must be totally off. Its looking increasingly likely that the NW Upstate of SC is going to get some snowfall... perhaps even some minor accumulations (trace to 1"). Folks in Pickens, Greenville, Spartainburg... be on the lookout!

1sfx4w.jpg

Keep in mind that is before evaporational cooling with the precip. 900 to 950mb wetbulbs in the western carolinas are -2 to -4c range.

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Wow! The RUC analysis at 925mb must be totally off. Its looking increasingly likely that the NW Upstate of SC is going to get some snowfall... perhaps even some minor accumulations (trace to 1"). Folks in Pickens, Greenville, Spartainburg... be on the lookout!

Just off the phone to confirm that a dusting is happening in Mtn Rest, Walhalla in Oconee.....15 miles northwest of here! Just a few flakes here :thumbsup:

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well that sucks - hopefully the heavier returns will reach you in time.

parts of alabama have apparently gone to wsw now with a couple of inches. hopefully that bodes well for n ga and the upstate/nc

Doesn't look likely, in fact the southern edge of the precip has eroded and is shifting north. It's funny, last night it looked like I was in a good spot..maybe a really good spot because of that finger of precip was virtually on top of me and there were hints this area would be in a favorable spot for on and off precip most of the day. But the sad reality is more precip has fallen in every direction here today.

I guess I shouldn't complain given how well I did in the last two but when 85% of the active posters here get more than just token sleet mixed with rain and instead get snow for a while (combined with all that is happening in al/ms) it still stings a lot.

Despite dawson's sleet report, will be interesting to see if he switches back over once that heavy batch moves in from the west. I would wager he does.

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Keep in mind that is before evaporational cooling with the precip. 900 to 950mb wetbulbs in the western carolinas are -2 to -4c range.

True... although I would have thought it would have taken a lot longer with a +2 to +3 degree C temps at 925mb to cool to 0 to allow snowfall to occur across NE Ga and Upstate SC. There are also places down near Atlanta that have been getting snowfall for the last few hours, where RUC never showed the 850mb temp getting even close to 0 degrees.

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wow the gfs is close to .2 freezing rain tonight in hky. keeps trending slightly colder. the meso high over virginia is providing a nice in-situ wedge. with such little waa, could be interesting around here tomorrow morning.

I saw Brad Panovich on WCNC tonight say that he wouldn't be surprised if this was upgraded to an ice storm warning for the NW piedmont and foothill counties of NC. His in-house model put the 0.25+ inch zone over all of Caldwell and Burke counties. Hickory was right on the edge of that gradient.

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One thing I see interesting on the soundings from the central and western carolinas on the 18z gfs, specifically the foothills and northern piedmont. The nonogram chart (thicknesses) supports sleet and freezing rain through 3PM tomorrow, however, the actual soundings rise just above freezing in most places around sunrise. Usually this hints the models are having a difficult time with the actual thermal profile aloft. There is very limited WAA with this. So any bust on the temps to the low side could prove interesting.

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True... although I would have thought it would have taken a lot longer with a +2 to +3 degree C temps at 925mb to cool to 0 to allow snowfall to occur across NE Ga and Upstate SC. There are also places down near Atlanta that have been getting snowfall for the last few hours, where RUC never showed the 850mb temp getting even close to 0 degrees.

Indeed but that's because it, along with every other model, failed to recognize the evaporational cooling. 850mb dewpoints were as low as -20 to -30c, which made wetbulbs subfreezing despite initial 850mb temps of 6 or 7c and the model insisting on 850mb temps only dropping to 3 or 4c. and with precip ahead of schedule and thus ahead of the waa, the models failed miserably.

Oh and with dewpoints in the 900 to 950mb layer as low as 14 to -5F, it doesn't take a long for that temp to drop. Plus with subfreezing dewpoints, frozen precip can hang on longer even if the temp is above freezing.

I'm more amazed with how much they failed in alabama though. I expected it here somewhat but in alabama, the models truly blew chunks with surface temps..busting by as much as 8 degrees around bhm. Haven't seen a temp bust like that around the southeast in a winter event situation in a long time.

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