Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Feb 3-6 Observations


Rankin5150

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 456
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I don't really consider it a surprise, at least to those on this board, because it's been talked about quite a bit on here for a while. :whistle:

Yea props to you lookout guitar.gif for realizing the chance of wintry precipitation across Georgia. The models really didn't handle the amount of cold air in place (as you expected), and especially underestimated the precipitation chances this afternoon into tonight. Both the GFS and the NAM had almost no precip over portions of North Georgia even up to the 00z runs last night. This is a pretty bad bust! The GFS 24 hours out is off on the precip. by around a quarter of an inch. The NAM is even worse, and has yet to catch on the fact that there is way more precipitation than the model progged.

So the main reason why we are seeing the snow/sleet mix across north georgia is not only due to the colder soundings, but the fact there is way more precipitation that is allowing a 2-3 hour period where the profile goes isothermal across N Ga.

zxw8ih.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Friend of mine just told me he's getting heavy snow in Cumming area! I was shocked as the 850 temp. was modeled to be above freezing. However, I'm wondering if heavy precip. is allowing wetbulbing at 850 to 32 or lower. Opinions?

Thats exactly what is happening.

Posting from my droid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Robert,

Seems like it always hits the NC/SC Border and its gone.. Its like there is a block there or something??? think we see any snow here tonight in Clev??

eventaully we'll get saturated, and its a race between the returns getting here and the cold air aloft moving just north of us. Right now, I'd say based on whats going on in and around northern GA region, we could get some snow and sleet out of this before the changeover. Check out the 850's. Also, the high, even though weak, is still going to be in damming position a little which will keep the surface right around 32 to 33 around here overnight.

post-38-0-89315100-1296772123.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sniff sniff. dry here still as well. precip just evaps as is heads this way. congrats to those seeing snow - thats awesome :thumbsup: impatiently i wait. and wait. and wait forever lol

fantastic!!

You should be next in line... GSP radar has you under some light-moderate returns. It shouldn't be long for you now. You will likely start off as sleet since the atmosphere right above is very dry (and above freezing). But as evaporational cooling takes place you likely will also get in on the isothermal soundings if you can get under those heavier rates falling in NW Georgia right now.

The snow ratio goes up as the precip gets heavier. My roof is turning white now that the sun is getting lower.All I need is .4" to get to 10" for the year.

Very nice! What is your specific location... as all I see on your profile is NW Georgia. Would be nice to peg a location to your obs weight_lift.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

woo hoo - kudos for sure to lookout!

snowing! (no sleet, all snow) :snowman:

You should be next in line... GSP radar has you under some light-moderate returns. It shouldn't be long for you now. You will likely start off as sleet since the atmosphere right above is very dry (and above freezing). But as evaporational cooling takes place you likely will also get in on the isothermal soundings if you can get under those heavier rates falling in NW Georgia right now.

i think my other post was premature by just a few minutes lol. its coming down now...seems to be mostly sleet. your post a page or so back will hopefully be right and give us at least a couple of hours of some snow

Link to comment
Share on other sites

432 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH

FRIDAY...

ALZ008-010-016-040645-

/O.UPG.KHUN.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-110204T1800Z/

/O.NEW.KHUN.WS.W.0003.110203T2232Z-110204T1800Z/

MARSHALL-DEKALB-CULLMAN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUNTERSVILLE...FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN

432 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN

EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO

LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED: SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL OCCUR FROM

CULLMAN TO DEKALB COUNTY...IN NORTH ALABAMA...THROUGH EARLY THIS

EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND SLEET...MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN

AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY

HIGHER AMOUNTS. LATER TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SLEET

ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A

TENTH INCH.

* IMPACTS (I.E. TRAVEL CONDITIONS): ROADS ARE QUICKLY BECOMING ICY

AND SNOWPACKED...WITH NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS REPORTED ALONG I-65 AND

STATE HIGHWAYS IN CULLMAN...MARSHALL AND DEKALB COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MEANS

PERIODS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY CAUSE DRIVING TO BECOME EXTREMELY

DANGEROUS...SO BE PREPARED TO USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW

ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN

EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND

WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

Link to comment
Share on other sites

you can see on FFC and GSP radar the fuzzy snow look.Classic sign of snow just off the surface. Looking at the init. panel from GFS it looked too warm at 850 overall,not just the evap. cooling aspect. And considering it doesnt' warm much til after 12 more hours, theres probably going to be accumulating snows in northern GA , western SC and western to central NC. Esp. the further west and higher you go.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My wife is at Brenau University in Gainesville and is reporting moderate snow and 36.

Here in Dacula I have 37 and a mix of sleet/snow/rain

moderate snow here as well. its 35.8 so nothing is sticking, but it sure is coming down :popcorn:

Cloudy, cold, and boring here. :thumbsdown: Bring on 70 and sunny. Spring can't come soon enough. :thumbsup:

i really hope this holds together to your area! it took forever to start, but once it did it the sky just opened up

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To me, the RUC tends to be on the warm side more times than not.

All of them have been on the warm side but especially the ruc. To be honest, I'm not a big fan of it, especially in situations like this. It, as well as the nam and gfs, have busted by some 5 to 7 degrees around BHM this afternoon at the surface for crying out loud. All the models had bhm at 33 to 35, and they dropped into the 26 to 30 degree range. So a HUGE bust there. Ruc had also modeled 850mb temps around 3 or 4c with no signs of evaporational cooling for run after run over all of north ga. Only until recently has it been showing some cooling but still underestimated it.

Friend of mine just told me he's getting heavy snow in Cumming area! I was shocked as the 850 temp. was modeled to be above freezing. However, I'm wondering if heavy precip. is allowing wetbulbing at 850 to 32 or lower. Opinions?

Yes, it's been talked about for a few days now as a possibility. Wetbulbs throughout the column were subfreezing and besides the models have been awful on the precip. Much more than indicated which has helped out. Hard to say how long it will last, my initial thoughts have been 2 to 6 hours...obviously the further north you are the better because waa will kick in this evening..but a few hours of snow/sleet isn't out of the question for most north of 85. Considering there are Already reports of light accumulations, some might get lucky given how good the radar looks. Even if it snows just 3 hours, the rates could be pretty good because the radar is impressive and there are stronger returns still moving in from alabama.

But it's hard to say really because the warm mid level temps the models have been showing don't exist right now. So it's hard to judge when the "real" warm air will arrive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its all in my name Phil. Emerson,GA is a little town south of Cartersville,GA. The airport code is KVPC but I set in a little mountain range just to its east so Im usually a degree colder or so. All sleet and 32.2 degrees.

arrowheadsmiley.png Thanks... I guess I should have known that.

I'm still surprised by how far south the 850mb line was able to get, much further than even what the current RUC shows. This might bode well for even folks in Upstate SC for a few hours this evening.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...