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Feb 3-6 Observations


Rankin5150

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GSP is worried... and they have good reason to be... the RUC is showing that neither the GFS or NAM have any sort of clue on whats going on right now. Its also currently snowing in Birmingham at 30 degrees.

FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED PRECIP IS MOVING IN FASTER THAN MOST MODELSOLUTIONS HAD EARLIER DEPICTED (WHICH ALWAYS SEEMS TO HAPPEN INTHESE SITUATIONS). PRECIP ONSET IS JUST A BIT FASTER THAN GFS TIMINGAND WAAAAY FASTER THAN THE NAM...SO THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEENLARGELY DISCOUNTED. IN ADDITION TO THE TREND TOWARD MUCH WETTERSOLUTIONS...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ENSEMBLES ALSO CONTINUE THEDISTURBING TREND OF DRIFTING TOWARD COLDER SOLUTIONS. THIS ISN/T ALLTHAT SURPRISING...SINCE THE MODELS ARE CATCHING ON TO JUST HOW DRYTHIS AIRMASS IS (AND THEREFORE HOW LOW SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS ARE).THE SOMEWHAT SURPRISING ASPECT IS THAT THE GFS ESPECIALLY HOLDS ONTOWINTRY PRECIP FOR QUITE A LONG TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MTNS ANDTHE NRN FHILLS/NW PIEDMONT. THIS IS SURPRISING DUE TO THE FACT THATWHILE THERE IS A DRY PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE HIGHOFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...CLASSICAL COLD AIR DAMMING DOES NOTAPPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS WITH THIS EVENT...THUS MAKING IT DIFFICULTTO LOCK IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPS AT THE SURFACE...CONSIDERING THE LACKOF TRULY COLD AIR THAT IS IN PLACE.THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN ESCARPMENT...WHERE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SHALLOW IN SITU COLD DOME COULDPROVIDE SOME MECHANICAL COOLING TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. THESCARY ASPECT IS THAT QPF CONTINUES TO CREEP UP WITH EVERY FORECASTCYCLE...AND THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERNESCARPMENT WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH OF LIQUID. OVERALL...THIS SEEMSTO BE A TRANSIENT WINTER PRECIP SETUP...AND WE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITHADVISORY LEVEL ICE ACCUMS (FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIAFTERNOON) IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS OF THE MTNS/NRNFOOTHILLS/NW PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTESCARPMENT COULD VERY WELL FLIRT WITH WARNING CRITERIA ICE.

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Looks like GSP has issued a freezing rain advisory for the mountains and I-40 corridor. Going to be very close here as my wet bulb has been hovering right above 32 degrees. Have a good feeling I will see sleet eventually changing over to rain and 32.5.

I just can't get too excited for our area...keep the ZR away, though seeing some sleet would be a nice little surprise. Should be interesting to watch how it all plays out tonight though I will be asleep.

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The RUC is the only model thats even close to accurately showing whats going on.

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This is worrisome, because by just 07z this morning (thats 2am!) look how much precipitation has fallen across the Blue Ridge of NC. According to the NWS, placed that wet-bulb down to freezing won't rise above till after daybreak. Just by 2am, already .1-.3 of precipitation has fallen, alot of which could be in the form of freezing rain and sleet. If I were located in Henderson County along the blue ridge stretching into Northeast Georgia, I'd pay very close attention to the radar, because this could quickly turn into a significant ice storm.

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Folks in N Georgia... you guys might be in the beginning stages of a surprising snow/sleet event for the next 1-3 hours. Despite the NWS not having any sort of advisories out, the RUC looks like it has a near isothermal sounding for the next 2-3 hours. Accumulations will be entirely dependent of the precipitation rate, since surface temperatures will remain largely above freezing. However, a dusting to a half inch of snow/sleet might not be out of the question, especially the higher elevations.

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light sleet and a flake or two mixed in here in Dahlonega temp 40 DP 28

where are you? I'm about 5 miles southeast of the square and I don't see anything yet. And whats up with this dang heat island thats been around Dahlonega this year? It seems like almost everytime something wintry is going on, we are warmer than the surrounding areas even further south.

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where are you? I'm about 5 miles southeast of the square and I don't see anything yet. And whats up with this dang heat island thats been around Dahlonega this year? It seems like almost everytime something wintry is going on, we are warmer than the surrounding areas even further south.

It's the shallow cold air Bending around the mountains. Driving through dawsonville now Andy flakes are easy to see.

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