Chris L Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 the loop I saved for you folks... Just look at the Gulf moisture inflow and the explosion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 the loop I saved for you folks... Just look at the Gulf moisture inflow and the explosion... Thanks Chris You did pretty well with this too, didn't you? I know for a while it was forecast to stay to your south but it did hit NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Thanks Chris You did pretty well with this too, didn't you? I know for a while it was forecast to stay to your south but it did hit NYC No, actually NYC was totally shafted, as badly as we were on 12/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 AFD from Thursday afternoon (don't think it's been posted) 000 FXUS61 KLWX 042006 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 306 PM EST THU FEB 4 2010 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN BY MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... -- Changed Discussion --DENSE OVERHEAD CIRRUS IS A SIGN OF THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRECURSOR TO WINTRY END TO THE WEEK ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC. TEMPS THIS AFTN HAVE RISEN INTO THE U30S AND L40S... ALLOWING FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE NOT DROPPED VERY MUCH AND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL MODIFY TEMPS OVERNIGHT A BIT...KEEPING LOWS IN THE M-U20S BUT ALSO KEEPING SFC TEMPS STEADY INTO THE MORNING HRS JUST AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --MID-LVL CONFLUENCE ACRS NEW ENGLAND SHUD SUSTAIN LOW-LVL HIPRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR MID-ATLC RGN. COMPACT BUT STRONG SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS MS RVR VLY FRI...WITH DEEP MSTR SPREADING NEWD ON SWLY FLOW. SFC LOPRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS AL AND GA BFR EMERGING INTO THE ATLC NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. COASTAL LOPRES XPCD TO BOMB FRI NGT OVER COASTAL NC BFR DVLPG NNEWD TWD HAMPTON ROADS AREA OF VA. RESULT OF THIS MVMT WILL BE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ENSUING STRONG NELY WINDS. HIGHEST WINDS XPCD FRI NGT THRU SAT WITH GUSTS APRCHG 30KT IN COASTAL ZONES. CONCERNING PCPN...SNOW XPCD TO FORM ACRS CNTRL FOOTHILLS...CNTRL SHENANDOAH VLY AND SRN PORTIONS OF POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY DAWN FRI. SNOW WILL SPREAD NEWD ACRS RMNDR OF FCST AREA THRU FRI MRNG. EARLY ONSET OF PCPN WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND MAXIMA FRI SHUD BE IN UPR 20S AND LWR 30S MOST AREAS. AS UPR WAVE AND COASTAL SYSTEM APRCH...PCPN WILL BCM MDT TO HEAVY BY LATE AFTN. SNOW TOTALS BY LATE FRI AFTN ARE XPCD TO BE IN 4-6 INCH RNG IN DC METRO AREA...UP TO ONE FOOT IN CNTRL SHENANDOAH VLY AND CNTRL FOOTHILLS. HEAVY SNOW XPCD AREAWIDE FRI NGT AS UPR SYSTEM MOVES ACRS. SFC LOW MOVES NEWD ON SAT...AND SNOW BANDS XPCD TO DVLP ACRS DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS IN DEFORMATION ZONE. ADDITIONAL MDT/HEAVY SNOW PSBL SAT MRNG BFR ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND SNOW INTENSITY WANES. WINTER STORM WRNG FOR HEAVY SNOW CONTS THRU SAT EVE. HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW TOTALS SLGTLY FROM PREV ISSUANCE...BUT SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST. SOME VARIABILITY IN SNOW TOTALS FCST FOR SRN MD AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF VA WOULD BE PSBL IF SLEET DVLPS LATE FRI NGT AS WARM AIR BRIEFLY WRAPS INTO SYSTEM. ATTM HAVE RETAINED PRIMARILY SNOW FCST /WITH SNOW AND SLEET MIX INCLUDED IN GRIDS/... BUT A PROLONGED PD OF SLEET COULD REDUCE TOTALS IN THIS AREA.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --MAIN FOCUS OF EXTENDED PDS IS A STRONG CLOSED UPR LOW THAT MOVES ACRS NRN CONUS TUE-WED AND DISLODGES ARCTIC ORIGIN AIR INTO OH VLY. THIS SYSTEM MAY PROMOTE A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACRS MUCH OF FCST AREA TUE...WITH UPSLP FLOW AND A SEQUENCE OF SHRTWV TROFS IN WAKE OF CLIPPER SYSTEM XPCD TO SUSTAIN SHSN FOR WRN SLOPES IN VERY COLD AIR.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. A RAPID CHANGE IN CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST FRI MRNG. AREAS IN N-CNTRL VA SUCH AS KCHO WILL SEE LIGHT-MOD SNOW MOVE IN CLOSER TO SUNRISE... AND ONLY A COUPLE OF HRS LATER IN THE DC AND BALT METRO AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY BY EARLY AFTN...AS HEAVIER SNOW BANDS AND A HEAVY...WET SNOW DROP CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE REGION. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS XPCD TO PERSIST THRU SAT EVE AS LOPRES MOVES NEWD AND DEFORMATION ZONE DVLPS. PCPN ENDS QUICKLY SAT EVE...WITH IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS THRU MON.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .MARINE... -- Changed Discussion --WINDS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE THIS AFTN...SUB-SCA CRITERIA. A GRADUAL DECREASE WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING. SPEEDS WILL STAY LIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACRS WATERS BY LATE FRI AFTN AS LOPRES DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF CAROLINA COAST. SMALL CRAFT ADZY THRESHOLD WINDS XPCD FOR SRN PORTIONS OF CHSPK BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC FRI AFTN. GALE WRNG HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF MD CHSPK BAY AND LWR TIDAL POTOMAC FRI NGT THRU SAT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADZY POSTED FOR RMNDR OF WATERS DURG THIS TIME. SMALL CRAFT ADZYS MAY BE NEEDED LATE NEXT WEEK AS A CDFNT WITH ARCTIC ORIGINS MOVES THRU MID-ATLC.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... -- Changed Discussion --DC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DCZ001. MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502. VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ028-031-042-052>057-501-502. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ021-025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051. WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ050>053-503-504. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ054-055-501-502. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ533- 534-537-541>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530-535-536.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 AFD from early Friday morning (apologies if it's been posted already): AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 251 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... -- Changed Discussion --KUDOS TO THE MDLS WHICH HV BEEN PREDICTING A MAJOR MID ATLC STORM FOR AT LEAST THE PAST 5 DAYS. ALSO KUDOS TO PRVS SHIFTS WHO DID ALL THE HVY LIFTING W/ REGARD TO THE UPCOMING STORM...OUR ROLE TNGT HAS BEEN MINOR TOUCH UPS. WRNGS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE...AND RMN UNCHGD. WE DID UP THE SNOW TOTALS SLTLY AT HIGHER ELEVS... WHERE INXS OF 30" MAY OCCUR BTWN FRI MRNG AND LATE SAT. OTHER IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION WAS WHETHER TO UP THE COUNTIES AGAINST THE BAY TO BLZRD WRNG. AFTER CONFERENCE W/ PHL...WHO ALTHO ISSUED FOR DE (ON THE CST) BUT NOT FOR THEIR MD COUNTIES E OF THE BAY...WE`VE DECIDED TO HOLD. "NR BLZRD" WRDG WL RMN IN THE WRNG. THESE CONDS WOULDN`T HAPPEN B4 TNGT REGARDLESS...WHICH WL GIVE DAYSHIFT TIME TO EVALUATE FURTHER.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --TNGT..WHEN CSTL LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY E OF ORF...CONDITIONS WL DETERIORATE TO XTRMLY POOR. TRAVEL SHOULD BE DISCOURAGED IN ALL BUT THE MOST XTRM CASES. W/ STRONG UVV`S OVRNGT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2" PER HR WL BE COMMON ACROSS THE CWA. LOW TEMPS M20S HIGHLANDS TO A30 ON THE CST.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --STRONG SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA...BRINGING MORE SNOW TO THE REGION. AS THE LOW PRESSURE DOES DEPART OUT TO SEA...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL BRING COLDER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .AVIATION /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --CGIS/VSBYS WL BEGIN THE MRNG AOA VFR LVLS AT MAJOR AIRPORTS... DIMINISHING TO MVFR THIS MRNG AS LGT SNOW DVLPS...THEN IFR BY LATE AFTN...AND FINALLY VLIFR THRUT TNGT. IFR/SUBIFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE SNOWFALL ALONG WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS TUESDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .MARINE... -- Changed Discussion --LGT WINDS THIS MRNG...INCRSG TO SCA VALUES IN THE LOWER BAY/PTMC THIS AFTN. AS LOW PRES INTENSIFIES E OF ORF TNGT TO GALE ON THE ENTIRE BAY AND LOWER PTMC TNGT...AND STRONG SCA ON THE UPPER PTMC. HVY SNOWFALL/BLSN WL REDUCE VSBY TO 1/4 MILE. ALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT AFTR LATE AFTN TDA. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT TO SEA SATURDAY...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG BETWEEN THIS LOW AND APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH FROM THE MIDWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH...BUT SCA WIND GUSTS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLY IMPACTS THE WATERS TUESDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... -- Changed Discussion --AT THE MOMENT TIDES ARE AT OR STLY ABV NRML..BUT NOTHING ALARMING. W/ STRONG NE FLOW XPCTD TO DVLP LATE THIS AFTN AND TNGT THIS WL PREVENT WATER FM DRAINING AND CAUSE MINOR CSTL FLDG TNGT. LATER SHIFTS WL MONITOR.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... -- Changed Discussion --DC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DCZ001. MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502. VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ028-031-042-052>057-501-502. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ021-025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051. WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ050>053-503-504. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ054-055-501-502. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-534-537-541>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-536.-- End Changed Discussion -- && $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/BJL/RDH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Thanks Chris You did pretty well with this too, didn't you? I know for a while it was forecast to stay to your south but it did hit NYC Mitch, it was actually a total miss up here... I remained in awe that it gave DC-PHL area 20 to 30 plus inches and while NYC did not see an inch. Truly one for the books! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolina23 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 What a Great Storm! Here's a pic of my front yard, car is almost buried... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Kind of jumping ahead of the timeline, but doubt I'll be online much tomorrow. Fozz had asked for more Weathertap, earlier in the thread. I have a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Thanks WVclimo, those radars are beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 0z NAM 2/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 0z GFS 2/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Still surprised that surprisingly large and north dry slot stopped just about there due to the pivot. Pretty sure it was never modeled to be anywhere close to NOVA, but goes to show you large storms can have large dry slots that aren't always well forecast. Some folks in Ill and Ind discovered that this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I can still remember cashiering during that storm, and having to hide gallons of milk for myself and fellow cashiers during our ten minute breaks. Or at one point being one of 2 cashiers in the whole storm, the night before it started(we weren't scheduled to have many people on that night, and although I begged people to stay late for me, with lines down the aisles, no one did, so it was me the night supervisor, the night cashier and the manager on duty(who was a new transfer from another low volume store, it was his first day) The store ran out of all produce, all milk(except organic, and there wasn't much of that left either) and all bread and most junk foods; it was kinda scary seeing all the shelves totally empty, and the people acting like the world was coming to an end(even funnier were the oblivious folks who came in and didnt understand why we were so busy) Or the lady who bitched me out because we did not have wrapping paper or party favors for her sons birthday party, and the kid throwing a temper tantrum(at that point it was already pouring snow.) WE had to shut down the courtesy desk just to be able to run enough registers(many angry gambling addicts that night) Leaving around 11 that night, there was already 2-3" on the ground, and there were bulldozers plowing the parking lot. In the time it took for us to go around the car and clear snow off, it had already accumulated again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Thanks WVclimo, those radars are beautiful. I dont recall having any rain at all during that storm, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 0z GFS 2/5 note on that last frame of the 500mb map the 2/10 vort is showing up nicely over MN whata' week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Here's some hourly obs I took during the storm: 10:00 a.m. 32.7 light snow beginning 11:00 a.m. 32.9 light snow, accumulation beginning on mulched surfaces 12:00 p.m. 31.8 light snow, accumulation beginning on grass 1:00 p.m. 32.1 light snow, light accumulation on grass 2:00 p.m. 32.0 moderate snow, light accumulation on grass, accumulation beginning on paved surfaces 3:00 p.m. 31.6 moderate snow, light accumulation on all surfaces 4:00 p.m. 31.6 snow becoming heavy, 1.0" 5:00 p.m. 31.6 heavy snow, 3.0" 6:00 p.m. 31.7 heavy, rimed snow, 4.5" 7:00 p.m. 31.3 heavy snow, 6.0" 8:00 p.m. 31.3 heavy snow, 8.5" 9:00 p.m. 31.2 heavy snow, 9.0" 10:00 p.m. 31.2 heavy snow, 10.0" 11:00 p.m. 30.5 heavy snow 11.9" 12:00 a.m. 30.2 heavy snow, 14.0" 1:00 a.m. 28.6 heavy snow, 15.0" 2:00 a.m. 28.1 heavy snow, 16.8" 3:00 a.m. 27.8 heavy snow, 18.0" 4:00 a.m. 27.7 heavy snow, 19.2" 5:00 a.m. 27.6 heavy snow, 20.5" 6:00 a.m. 27.5 heavy snow, 22.0" 7:00 a.m. 27.0 heavy snow, 23.8" 8:00 a.m. 26.5 heavy snow, 25.0" 9:00 a.m. 26.0 heavy snow, 26.0" 10:00 a.m. 25.8 heavy snow, 27.0" 11:00 a.m. 25.7 heavy snow, 28.0" 12:00 p.m. 25.5 snow tapering to flurries, 28.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Man....this time last year, we were watching the radar fill in to the south, anticipating the arrival of 2-3 feet. I got so fookin drunk, underage and all. A great night for more than just the snow..... This storm was a probably the most enjoyable living nightmare, I hated it as much as I loved it. I remember looking at the trees around 6PM, they were already caked with snow, no doubting the inevidable. I was gonna have a COLD night ahead of me. I'll never forget the "craaaaaaaaaaack" every 10 minutes or so, beginning around midnight or so.....tree damage was the worst I've seen, beating out isabel. There were about 3 mature pine trees laying across heatherhill Court......on my block alone. Pine trees and Bradford Pears....they were hurt bad. All of my neighbors had some form of tree damage. Limbs, branches, and entire trees, just horrible. We walked to helmsdale road around 2AM. We had to turn back, brutal. Then started a fire, and lost Power around 3AM. I ended up measuring once an hour, which probably inflated my totals a bit. I'd love to relive snowmageddon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Feb 4 0z GFS QPF Feb 5 0z GFS QPF 12z GFS clown map Feb 2 0z NAM clown map Feb 3 Feb 4 1145am 12z NAM snowfall map 6z GFS KIAD Feb 3 2010 Feb 5 2010 surface map 10pm Feb 5 2010 12 noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Feb 5 2010 12 noon MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0098 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV/SRN PA/NRN VA/MD/DE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 051645Z - 052045Z A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC. SNOWFALL RATES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM 18-00Z WITH INCH AN HOUR RATES BECOMING COMMON AND LOCALIZED RATES OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR. RATES WILL FURTHER INCREASE BY 00Z...WITH 2-3 INCH AN HOUR RATES AND RAPID ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER. DRY LOW LEVELS REFLECTED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE QUICKLY SATURATING THIS MORNING...EVIDENCED BY RAPID DEW POINT INCREASES /2-3 DEGREES PER HOUR VIA RECENT OBS/ AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DECREASING AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COMMENCES. CURRENT VAD WIND PROFILE DATA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SWRN VA ARE SHOWING INTENSE WARM ADVECTION PROFILES WITH VERY STRONG VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...WHICH WILL FURTHER SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SATURATION AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE /PWATS NEAR 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL PER 12Z RAOBS/ ADVECTS NEWD. WEDGE FRONT AND SUBTLE EFFECTS OF THE INITIAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL SUPPORT P-TYPE OF ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE REMAIN SUBFREEZING. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD WITH TIME...UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION IN SNOWFALL RATES AS VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED...AND WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO HEAVY SNOW BY AFTERNOON. HEIGHT FALLS ARE INFLUENCING SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS NEAR ERN KY/WRN VA OF 1 MB/HR OR GREATER...AND IN ERN NC NEAR 1.5 MB/HR AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN VA/COASTAL AREAS AS A SURFACE LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS AND MOVES UP THE COAST...CAUSING NEAR BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS IN BLOWING SNOW. AS THIS OCCURS...ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIKELY ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS MOISTURE FLUX OCCURS OVER THE OCEAN THEN SHIFTS INLAND NEAR THE DC/BALTIMORE METROPLEX IN NELY/ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. ..HURLBUT.. 02/05/2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Feb 4 910am Feb 4 650pm Feb 5 837am Feb 5 1115am Feb 5 157pm Feb 5 455pm Feb 5 956pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Feb 6 123am Feb 6 212am Wegmans in Dulles Feb 4 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 0z NAM 2/5 That may have been the run that made Marcus whine like a baby about being fringed on the radio show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 2/5 15z SREF -- 24 and 12 hr qpf 2/5 12z NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It was exactly a year ago that the snow really got going.......I dropped my siblings off at their martial arts lesson Friday evening, and then decided to drive north just as the snow started to stick on the roads. There was probably 1-2" of snow at that point. It was a very wintry scene, slowly getting darker, and I kept driving north on York Road until I was up around Sparks, MD at Ensor Mill Road. Then I turned back, picked them up and got back home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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