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FEB 7-9 Upstate NY / North Country Winter Storm


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2.5" in Liverpool overnight. Snowing quite nicely ATT as L. Ontario awakens for a few days!!! I'm quite bullish on the LES for the Tug Hill area over the next several days.....thinking some areas (as long as they aren't too transitory) will push over 2' totals....Hooker, Montague, N. Redfield, Barnes Corners look like the target area.....at least for tomorrow afternoon into Thursday morning....

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What about next week?

huge gradient pattern possible, the further S and W you are, the worse off you might be.

i posted this in the central discussion thread:

well the GFS at 12z has at least muted the thaw somewhat with the day 10 event, its still there but not as bad.

i also noticed the day 10 euro last night didnt develop the huge warm ridge in the prairiers that would likely slide east like the run before it.

note the clipper this weekend has also been trending south on its exit rather than up over central quebec.

the more southerly bumps we get, the better.....the PV means business and seems trapped by the block on the other side of the pole.

it certianly looks a possible huge gradient pattern setting up.....obviously im the safest, but i dont feel particularly safe.

defintely ironic that we need the NAO or PV to help us out here......

im going to take on event at a time in this potentially ugly pattern.....first focus on the clipper which looks solid although Env Canadas temps are too warm....... and then hope after that the clipper shoots south and the gradient for the day 10 system is more favorable with the PV helping and not sliding too far west. it could be a productive pattern, but also a disaster.

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I don't think it's an ugly pattern at all for northern NY/NE and adjacent Canada. It could be quite prolific. More on the fence here, but feel we avoid any lasting thaws. Places like DC may be entering early Spring as JB says....

huge gradient pattern possible, the further S and W you are, the worse off you might be.

i posted this in the central discussion thread:

well the GFS at 12z has at least muted the thaw somewhat with the day 10 event, its still there but not as bad.

i also noticed the day 10 euro last night didnt develop the huge warm ridge in the prairiers that would likely slide east like the run before it.

note the clipper this weekend has also been trending south on its exit rather than up over central quebec.

the more southerly bumps we get, the better.....the PV means business and seems trapped by the block on the other side of the pole.

it certianly looks a possible huge gradient pattern setting up.....obviously im the safest, but i dont feel particularly safe.

defintely ironic that we need the NAO or PV to help us out here......

im going to take on event at a time in this potentially ugly pattern.....first focus on the clipper which looks solid although Env Canadas temps are too warm....... and then hope after that the clipper shoots south and the gradient for the day 10 system is more favorable with the PV helping and not sliding too far west. it could be a productive pattern, but also a disaster.

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1.5 inches here ...so another under performer... But you can't be too bitter because I just measured 21 inches of snow depth out back. :) Heavy wind and a modest streamer underway here now...temperature down to 20F.

I'm shocked that is all you got. I ended up with 5" here and it has been snowing hard off and on for the past hour, might be able to squeak out another inch tonight. Pretty healthy snowpack here at 18"-20", even in the woods. I am going to throw up some pics from today in the general thread.

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Yeah I know. I was watching the radar and invariably the lighter echoes found their way over my house. I am the Upstate NY version of the former DT anti-snow shield this winter. ;) Not that we aren't doing fine on balance, but I always see my poor Knox obs near the lower end of the Albany County lists rather than near the top where it is most winters.

I was in the lowlands near Ballston Spa today and they have some very deep snow. If I have 21" ..they have half a foot more anyway.

I'm shocked that is all you got. I ended up with 5" here and it has been snowing hard off and on for the past hour, might be able to squeak out another inch tonight. Pretty healthy snowpack here at 18"-20", even in the woods. I am going to throw up some pics from today in the general thread.

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