Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 there is some snow on monday and another wave that may be stronger on tuesday.....but its very unclear. the models have progressively trended worse for our area but given how much the models have struggled recently, we will have to see what happens. right now upstate looks a better hit than us. for the Tuesday event or Monday? Or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 cmc http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looking at NAM/GooFuS it would appear everything stays S&E w/ this system...GEM looks like we get some snow...not sure about EC. Given the last week's worth of NWP performance, I wouldn't write this one off yet for interior NY. Or for that matter ONT. LOL who knows where this one will go. The EC gave eastern areas a light to moderate event event while the low passed well off the coast. Its ensemble mean looks decent though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I hope we can cash in with one of them during this next 10 days of a cold pattern. After that I think the next shot may be in the late winter period - as in very late February or March. La Nina years tend to get cold and stormy into the Spring. We are actually due for some March action. ALB has cashed in with many of it's best snowstorms in March historically. LOL who knows where this one will go. The EC gave eastern areas a light to moderate event event while the low passed well off the coast. Its ensemble mean looks decent though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 0z ecm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 HPC ...LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK EARLY TUESDAY...PREFERENCE... 00Z ECMWF ALL GUIDANCE TAKES THE SFC LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK BY 12Z/08... THOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS BASICALLY RIGHT AT 40N/70W. THE 00Z CANADIAN/UKMET LIE ABOUT 100 MILES EAST/SOUTH OF THERE... RESPECTIVELY... AND ARE DEEPER THAN THE ECMWF. THE 00Z NAM/GFS ARE FARTHEST SOUTH/EAST. 21Z SREF MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN GUIDANCE... AND WILL RECOMMEND THAT GREATER NORTHWESTERN CLUSTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 GGem is not that bad...Let the NW trend begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Unsurprisingly, Monday's event looks to be a non-event for Ottawa, with maybe an inch if we're lucky. EC forecasting another 2-4" for Montreal though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 It's definitely looking like we will have some snow Monday into early Tuesday - whether the system really comes together in time or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Really torching up here in Ottawa at 35F (that is a torch by Ottawa mid winter standards). Even if we do get snow tomorrow, the ratios won't be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 OVC and 30.2F here. Ice still on the trees after yesterday's mess. I'd gladly take 3 inches of snow to put a nice base on top of this 20+ inches of hard permafrost. Really torching up here in Ottawa at 35F (that is a torch by Ottawa mid winter standards). Even if we do get snow tomorrow, the ratios won't be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 yeah we need to get this crap air out of here post-MW blizzard looks to be another day or 2 then we can change airmasses to some fresh cold, and then pray that the torch the week after somehow avoid us with a favorable gradient pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Really torching up here in Ottawa at 35F (that is a torch by Ottawa mid winter standards). Even if we do get snow tomorrow, the ratios won't be great. dam its only 25F here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 18z nam qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 KAlb snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 KALB AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST...A COASTAL LOWWILL BEGIN TO FORM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE MONDAY...AND MOVE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A 2 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 18z gfs qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Hopefully Ottawa at least gets 2-3" to make up for last night's heartbreaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The 18Z GFS is up to .4" here ...so those snowfall numbers might be realistic. It really looks like a more dominant low wants to be further northwest, but the models jump ultimate bombogenesis well out near the offshore baroclinic zone. It is probably the reality, but every now and then the models will err with that. KAlb snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 18z gfs qpf 12 ECM QPF field looks very much like the 18z GFS. Two consecutive periods of .1-.25 leading to a widespread .25-.50 for most everyone. The area of highest QPF looks like it may be the E Srn Tier where there is a 6-hour period of .25-.50, but don't have exact QPF values to verify that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFRAD_18z/jloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Hopefully Ottawa at least gets 2-3" to make up for last night's heartbreaker. GFS has been the most agressive.....going by qpf, 2-4 inches would be a decent bet BUT hard to believe surface temps could be the issue in february, this airmass is SOOOOOOO stale post MW blizzard, that it may not accumlate very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 With last nights mess over with, I have noob weather question. I did some thinking last night and need to ask, it seems it really needs to have everything together at the right time to get a snowstorm. Now it would seem to me anyway, that the chances of an ice storm would be far greater in regard to the storm type itself. Snow is very temperature dependent-- not just ratios. Freezing rain it seems is so simple just a basic way of saying water/ melting snow to rain then cold enough to freeze at ground levels.I am just wondering is all. I cannot remember the last time GFL or within 10 miles of had a big ice storm. I consider 3/4" or more a big storm. Are ice storms harder to come by( IT IS NOT A BAD THING AT ALL) that they are rare. Or are ice storms not that simple? As compared to snow anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 GFS has been the most agressive.....going by qpf, 2-4 inches would be a decent bet BUT hard to believe surface temps could be the issue in february, this airmass is SOOOOOOO stale post MW blizzard, that it may not accumlate very well. Fresh cold is moving in though. High -14C on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 0z nam qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 With last nights mess over with, I have noob weather question. I did some thinking last night and need to ask, it seems it really needs to have everything together at the right time to get a snowstorm. Now it would seem to me anyway, that the chances of an ice storm would be far greater in regard to the storm type itself. Snow is very temperature dependent-- not just ratis. Freezing rain it seems is so simple just a basic way of saying water/ melting snow to rain then cold enough to freeze at ground levels.I am just wondering is all. I cannot remember the last time GFL or within 10 miles of had a big ice storm. I consider 3/4" or more a big storm. Are ice storms harder to come by( IT IS NOT A BAD THING AT ALL) that they are rare. Or are ice storms not that simple? As compared to snow anyway. Yes, ice storms are harder to come by because heavier rain tends to bring down the warmer air aloft with it and frictional effects with the ground release some latent heat. A lighter rain or drizzle tends to ice up better as it minimizes these effects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 With last nights mess over with, I have noob weather question. I did some thinking last night and need to ask, it seems it really needs to have everything together at the right time to get a snowstorm. Now it would seem to me anyway, that the chances of an ice storm would be far greater in regard to the storm type itself. Snow is very temperature dependent-- not just ratios. Freezing rain it seems is so simple just a basic way of saying water/ melting snow to rain then cold enough to freeze at ground levels.I am just wondering is all. I cannot remember the last time GFL or within 10 miles of had a big ice storm. I consider 3/4" or more a big storm. Are ice storms harder to come by( IT IS NOT A BAD THING AT ALL) that they are rare. Or are ice storms not that simple? As compared to snow anyway. IMO snow is "easier" to come by. A "snowstorm" is a different story to get a widespread heavy snow requires a # of factors... Ice storm require many more. Ice is usually a transition from one p-type to another..snow to rain or the opposite way. One needs the "right" ingredients and parameters coming together in time and place to cause an all-out icestorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Hopefully Ottawa at least gets 2-3" to make up for last night's heartbreaker. The gradient was ridiculous. I was in Russell, 30 mins southeast of where I live, and about 4 inches fell there...I come back, and nothing! Snowing lightly here now...seems very disorganised on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Gfs still wetter then the NAM, 1/4-1/2" for most of the region.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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