lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Could be another warning event for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 After this storm, I doubt I will ever fully trust models again, even the day before the storm. I mean, Toronto got 8" when models up until Tuesday were calling for a foot or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 After this storm, I doubt I will ever fully trust models again, even the day before the storm. I mean, Toronto got 8" when models up until Tuesday were calling for a foot or more. SYR was 8-14". We received 3.5". Never again will I trust any forecast until after the storm ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Well, all the signs were there before the storm even got close to WNY... 1) LP deeped more rapidly than models predicted 2) #1 then effected the storm track (which was right over WNY) - which of course caused all the precip a mix 3) The dry slot was under-predicted...and was a QPF killer This one was bound to bust...I'm just surprised that the NWS didn't change the forecast earlier...I mean, even a local Met did in ROC. Good for them! Hopefully this next one will be predicted a bit more accurately based on recent experiences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 After this storm, I doubt I will ever fully trust models again, even the day before the storm. I mean, Toronto got 8" when models up until Tuesday were calling for a foot or more. you can only form a general concensus between ALL the models and take your best estimate from what they are showing. in addition, ive learned that looking at qpf and the surface will only get you so far. you cannot ignore the trends of the actual storm itself while its happening, which is where toronto got screwed as well as much of upstate. i think LEK says it best......models are only 'tool' and should be used as such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Hopefully this next one will be predicted a bit more accurately based on recent experiences Interesting read from the HPC... IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THE LOW PROGRESSION THROUGH THE EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS DEPICTED TOO QUICK AS THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MORE THAN FIVE DAYS INTO THE FUTURE WAS 12-24 HOURS TOO QUICK WITH THE DECEMBER 26 CYCLONE...JANUARY 26-27 CYCLONE...AND THE CURRENT GROUNDHOG DAY CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE EAST...WHOSE VERIFIED SOLUTIONS WERE EITHER ALONG OR OUTSIDE THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD SIX TO SEVEN DAYS INTO THE FUTURE. THE LAST TWO CASES ARE EITHER DUE TO TOO MUCH PHASING BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS AT THAT TIME RANGE...OR AMPLIFICATION OF THE WRONG /PRECEDING/ SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS IS THE REASON WHY THE DETERMINISTIC 12Z UKMET/12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF WERE NOT TRUSTED BEYOND DAY 5...OTHER THAN THEIR UNUSUAL-LOOKING CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES-WIDE UPPER TROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE 12Z CANADIAN SHOWS AN EVEN SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE EASTERN SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Anybody ever recall a 931mb LP EVER depicted on the GFS global, tropical or not??? And this thing goes bonzos into the Gulf of Maine, up into the mouth of the St. Lawrence......Drops over 50mb in 24 hours and 30 in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Albany... WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... ...WE COULD EXPERIENCE ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE COASTAL WINTER STORM. IT IS A BIT WORRISOME THAT THE 12Z GFS DEEPENS THE LOW FROM 1003 HPA AT 00Z/THU OVER ALABAMA TO 956 HPA OVER SRN NOVA SCOTIA AT 00Z/FRI. A BIT MIND BOGGLING...STAY TUNED !!! Anybody ever recall a 931mb LP EVER depicted on the GFS global, tropical or not??? And this thing goes bonzos into the Gulf of Maine, up into the mouth of the St. Lawrence...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Albany... WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... ...WE COULD EXPERIENCE ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE COASTAL WINTER STORM. IT IS A BIT WORRISOME THAT THE 12Z GFS DEEPENS THE LOW FROM 1003 HPA AT 00Z/THU OVER ALABAMA TO 956 HPA OVER SRN NOVA SCOTIA AT 00Z/FRI. A BIT MIND BOGGLING...STAY TUNED !!! That aint a winter storm. Thats a hurricane!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It's pretty incredible, but at this point it's just model porn. If it is still modeled like that in 4 days I'll be interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It's pretty incredible, but at this point it's just model porn. If it is still modeled like that in 4 days I'll be interested. Of course, but the output (along with many members of the 12z GGEM being sub 960 at or north of NE) at least demonstrates the potential of something big.....and the BIG ONES in the past, usually show their face a bit out in the day 5 or 6 progs.....Certainly nothing to take verbatim, just interesting eyebrow raising type stuff now. And a lot of my terse slaps at the previous storm and the models performance, IMO are inherently tied to the pattern that the models were given....Just remember how they ALL blew this one, and how it very much indicates a systematic issue with W. gulf coast LP's going to our west (or trying to). Whether it be a geography, topography, or convective misdiagnosis (or a bit of all), there is something that needs to be put in the forefront of forecasters' minds in future similar patterns/storm tracks..... EC cyclogenisis is seemingly handled much better at lead times of a day or two, from a thermal field aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 BTW, scanning the AFD's from various northeast stations, I'm glad to see that my sentiments on next week's storm (as depicted on the 18z GFS) were parroted by some: From Gray, ME 18Z GFS SHOWS AN INTENSIFYING LOW CROSSING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE (42 MB DEEPENING IN 12 HRS!). IT CRASHES DOWN TO 931 MB IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. DOUBT THAT WILL VERIFY...SINCE WE ARE SO FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT IT`S JUST AMUSING TO LOOK AT IN ANY CASE. NEVER SEEN THAT KINDA OF DEEPING FROM A NUMERICAL MODEL IN THE NORTHEAST OVER THE LAST 25 YEARS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Since this thread was started to cover the Monday-Tuesday / Feb 7-8 event, I went ahead and opened a thread for the potential event on Thursday-Friday / 10-11 event. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/12494-feb-10-11-upstate-ny-north-country-potential-winter-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This is how the season's been going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 models are suggesting several inches of long duration snow possible monday-tuesday in e.ontario/Sw quebec from a pseudoclipper-miller B transfer setup. GEM 2-4 euro 3-6 GFS 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This is how the season's been going Nothing wrong w/ being in the snow hole this far out....you'll probably bullseye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 models are suggesting several inches of long duration snow possible monday-tuesday in e.ontario/Sw quebec from a pseudoclipper-miller B transfer setup. GEM 2-4 euro 3-6 GFS 4-8 how much for buf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Looks weaker on 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 ECM looks a little interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 euro drops approx 0.5-0.75 across the region not going to get anymore specific than that, but obvioulsy it has a much more robust solution for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z gfs qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 latest GFS looks lousy for this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The way the models have been this year, I think the GFS will come back to a good snow solution...with the Euro going the other way. The Canadian is in some agreement with the Euro..But the way the Canadian has been I don't trust it too much. Anyway. it too early to say too much about this storm..The models won't have a solution until 48-36 hours at the earlest, but most likely they won't have a clear picture until Tues.....But based on what I see right now, I think the odds that this one GOS is about 55% with a 30% chance of coming up the coast. and 15% chance it come inland a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 euro continues to suggest a moderate event. NCEPs arent as bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 After this storm, I doubt I will ever fully trust models again, even the day before the storm. I mean, Toronto got 8" when models up until Tuesday were calling for a foot or more. A 4inch miss on a storm this complex is not bad at all. If you didnt have 4+ inch error bars on your forecast, you have a lot to learn. Especially with a well forecast dry slot and definite mixing issues present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 HPC clearly leaning toward the more formittable event on the ECM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 HPC clearly leaning toward the more forimittable event on the ECM... 4-8" would be great. I'm not holding my breath though. EC looks underdone on the cold behind this system. Highs of 20F midweek in Ottawa? Looks colder than that on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Warning....only for those who want to claim the CRAS has been scoring coups every once in awhile: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I must be getting mixed up here. I thought the snow was coming Monday? Is it Tuesday that the main system might hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I must be getting mixed up here. I thought the snow was coming Monday? Is it Tuesday that the main system might hit? there is some snow on monday and another wave that may be stronger on tuesday.....but its very unclear. the models have progressively trended worse for our area but given how much the models have struggled recently, we will have to see what happens. right now upstate looks a better hit than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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