Thanksgiving excessive rainfall-OH valley

[janetjanet998]

12 NAM trending even more wet

flash flood watches up based on 00z model data

00z run

12z

[janetjanet998]

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

829 AM EST WED NOV 24 2010

..VALID 15Z WED NOV 24 2010 - 12Z THU NOV 25 2010

..REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM

15 NE ILN 15 NNW LOU 10 ENE CIR 20 N ARG 20 SE FLP 25 N BPK

30 SSW CPS 25 SSE TAZ 15 W PRG 25 W AID 25 NNW SGH OSU 15 NE ILN.

..LWR OH VLY

15Z UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK..OTHERWISE STILL EXPECTED

AREA OF HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS TO DVLP OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER

OH VALLEY THIS PD. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXPANDING AREA

OF RAIN WITH EMBDD ELEVATED CONVECTION WORKING ITS WAY NEWD

THROUGH PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS

AREA OF RAIN IS DVLPG ON NOSE OF STG AND MOIST 85H JET WITH BOTH

VERY FAVORABLE SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE PROVIDING

ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER COLD SFC RIDGE. PWS HAS INCREASED

DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST FEW HRS THROUGH PARTS OF MO FROM THE LOW

20S TO OVER 1.10 INCHES IN THE LAST 6 TO 8 HRS PERHAPS A LITTLE

QUICKER THAN 00Z ECMWF FORECASTS AND INDICATIVE OF THE VERY STG

MSTR FLUX AT THE CURRENT TIME. STILL LOOKING FOR THE MORE

SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION FROM OH SWWD INTO SE

MO TO OCCUR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRES WORKS ITS WAY EWD

ALONG WARM FRONTAL BNDRY LIFTING NWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND

ENHANCES MSTR CONVERGENCE INTO THE REGION. SULLIVAN PREVIOUS

DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

MDLS ARE IN STG AGREEMENT ON A SYNOPTIC HVY RNFL EVENT DVLPG LATER

TDA/TNGT ACRS THE REGION THAT SHLD LINGER INTO DAY 2. UPR VORTEX

OVR THE NRN ROCKIES WL SHIFT EWD WITH STG HGT FALLS PUSHG INTO THE

PLNS AND SVRL EMBEDDED SHRTWVS FCST TO LIFT RPDLY NEWD FM THE SRN

PLNS TO THE OH VLY STS AND PROVIDE A PROLONGED PD OF STG LIFT. SFC

FNT WL QUICKLY MOV ACRS THE PLNS TDA AND THEN BEGIN TO STALL FM

THE GRT LKS TO THE LWR OH VLY AND WRN TX WITH NEARLY PARALLEL

SWRLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WL PROMOTE TRAING ACRS THE REGION. MDLS ARE

SHOWG A RATHER IMPRVS RIBBON OF 8H THETA-E RIDGING INTO/ACRS THE

REGION WITH VRY STG 8H FLOW. MDL 8H WNDS OF 50-60 KTS WL SUPPORT

ANOMALOUS 8H MSTR FLUX ALNG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT/THETA-E ADV. SREF

8H MSTR FLUX ANOMALIES ARE 3-4 STDS ABV NRML. LATEST SATL DERIVED

PW DATA SHOWS A TONGUE OF PWS 1.00-1.50 INCHES LIFTG NWD INTO ERN

TX THIS MRNG...WITH MDL FCSTS SHOWG THIS MSTR CONTG TO LIFT NEWD

THRU THE PD THAT WL EASILY FUEL A SWATH OF HVY RNFL ACRS THE

REGION. PW ANOMALIES ARE GNRLY ARND TWO STDS ABV NRML. HI-RES

ARW/NMM GUID IS SHOWG A SWATH OF 2-4 INCH RNFL ACRS THE

REGION...WITH EXPERIMENTAL DENSITY PLOTS OF RNFL EXCEEDING FFG

SHOWG LWR INDICES ACRS THE REGION. THIS MAINLY DUE TO THE RATHER

HI FFG AT THE PRESENT TIME. THIS COULD CHNG QUICKLY LATER TNGT AS

HVY RNFL DVLPS. XPCT THE FIRST SHOT OF LGT/MOD RNFL ERLY TDA WITH

THE ONSET OF STGR WAA...THEN THE HVIER RNFL AMTS WL BEGIN TNGT

ACRS THE REGION WITH CELLS TRAING TWD THE NE FOR SVRL HRS. THIS

SHLD RESULT IN SOME ONE INCH PER HR RNFL RATES AND TOTALS OF 2-4

INCHES THRU THU MRNG.

[jhamps10]

ILX didn't pull the trigger on a watch, but one thing is for sure... you can kiss the drought good bye from this rainfall!

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL327 AM CST WED NOV 24 2010...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TONIGHT INTOTHURSDAY...A WEATHER SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING THAT WILL LIKELY BRING A COUPLE OFPERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TONIGHTAND THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. A WARM FRONT...DEVELOPING IN THESOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND BECOMESTATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY THIS EVENING. WARM MOIST AIRFROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL FLOW NORTHWARD...INTERACTING WITH THEWARM FRONT TO PRODUCE AND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHOF THE FRONT. INITIAL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE SHOWERS AND STORMSWILL MOVE OVER SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS BEGINNING TONIGHT. AS THE LOWPRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...ADDITIONALSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE LOW AND MOVEOVER THE SAME AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL ISEXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A BEECHER CITY TO CHARLESTONTO PARIS LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER 2 INCHESTHROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTHEASTOF A OLNEY TO ROBINSON LINE.EVEN THOUGH THE GROUND IS VERY DRY IN THIS AREA...THE AMOUNT OFRAIN FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE AREA IN THE SHORT TIME FRAME COULDCAUSE DITCHES...SHALLOW STREAMS AND RIVERS TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS.

[janetjanet998]

on the flip side GFS seems drier

[jhamps10]

NWS Lincoln and Paducah issuing Flood Watches this afternoon:

ILX:

FLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL245 PM CST WED NOV 24 2010...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLOODING THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY....A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...THENREMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE MOVINGEAST OF THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTOTHE AREA...ENHANCING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLYHEAVY RAIN. MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS ALREADY RECEIVED OVER ANINCH OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BEPOSSIBLE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70.ILZ056-057-061>063-066>068-071>073-250300-/O.NEW.KILX.FA.A.0002.101125T0000Z-101126T0000Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLESTON...MATTOON...SHELBYVILLE...EFFINGHAM...FLORA...LAWRENCEVILLE245 PM CST WED NOV 24 2010...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGHTHURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES. IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CLARK...COLES...CUMBERLAND...EDGAR AND SHELBY. IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...CLAY...CRAWFORD...EFFINGHAM...JASPER...LAWRENCE AND RICHLAND.* FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * MUCH OF THIS AREA RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY TO FALL THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-70.* FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS...AND NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS. MANY STORM DRAINS ARE CLOGGED WITH FALLEN LEAVES... ENHANCING THE THREAT OF STREET FLOODING.

Source: http://mesonet.agron...-KILX-FA-A-0002

PAH:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDFLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY212 PM CST WED NOV 24 2010ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-250415-/O.NEW.KPAH.FA.A.0001.101125T0000Z-101126T0000Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID212 PM CST WED NOV 24 2010...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGHTHURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.* FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON* MUCH OF THE REGION PICKED UP 1/2 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE RAINS WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...AS THE FRONT WORKS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.* THE NEAR DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO HARD SOIL CONDITIONS AND INCREASED RUN OFF RATES. THIS COUPLED WITH DEBRIS FROM THE FALL...INCLUDING LEAF LITTER...COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND STANDING WATER OVER ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. SOME MINOR WATER PROBLEMS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED FROM TODAY FIRST ROUND OF RAIN.

Source: http://mesonet.agron...-KPAH-FA-A-0001

[hoosierwx]

LMK joins the party.

* FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY

NIGHT

* ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN ACROSS SOUTHERN

INDIANA TODAY. A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST

TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT...WHILE A COLD FRONT

IS FORECAST TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF

RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN

TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

[janetjanet998]

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

513 PM EST WED NOV 24 2010

..VALID 00Z THU NOV 25 2010 - 00Z FRI NOV 26 2010

..REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM

30 SSW LHQ 25 N FFT 10 S OWB 35 NNE DYR HKA JBR 10 WSW ARG

20 N ARG 20 SW POF POF 30 NNE POF 25 SSE FAM 30 WSW FAM

45 ESE TBN 25 SE TBN 30 SSW TBN 35 ENE SGF 10 NNE SGF 25 WNW SGF

35 NE JLN 45 NW SGF 50 NNW SGF 45 W AIZ 15 SSE DMO 15 WSW COU

25 E COU 40 WNW SUS 25 WNW SET 15 NNE SET 25 NNE ALN 25 ESE TAZ

MTO 20 NNE EYE 20 E AOH 10 ENE BJJ 10 NNW BVI 15 ESE BTP

10 ESE AGC 20 SSW HLG 30 SSW LHQ.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE

FROM

15 WNW ILN 25 SW CVG 20 NW LOU 15 E EHR 15 WSW EHR 10 SW HSB

FWC AJG 35 WNW HAO MGY 15 WNW ILN.

UPDATE...

THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO

INCLUDE AREAS OF CENTRAL MO. CONVECTION CONTS TO ENHANCE IN A

REGION OF STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF THE SEWD MOVG ARCTIC FRONT

AND INTO THE STNRY/WARM FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDING SEWD ACRS SWRN MO.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONT TO EXPAND NEWD OVR THE NEXT SEVERAL

HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING A SEWD PUSH IN ASSOC WITH THE SEWD MOVG

ARCTIC FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SW TO NELY

DIRECTION WL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHRT TERM PCPN AMTS OF 1-2".

ORAVEC

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

..OH VLY

A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD THIS PD

ACRS THIS REGION AHEAD OF VERY DEEP UPR TROF THAT WILL PUSH SLOWLY

EWD FROM ROCKIES INTO THE UPR MIDWEST AND SRN HI PLAINS BY THU

EVENING. MODELS IN GENL SHOW REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH

TIMING OF THE UPR TROF AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT WITH MINOR DETAIL

DIFFERENCES. STG WAA AND MSTR FLUX WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A

BAND OF MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY OVERRUNNING PCPN TO THE NORTH OF WARM

FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NWD TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION

TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOW AS LOW PRES WAVE MOVES OUT OF

SRN KS AND EWD ALONG THE BNDRY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN

STG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BNDRY.

TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS STG ASSOCD COLD

POOL UNDER RUNS MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING. THIS FRONTAL

LIFT ALONG WITH INCREASING RT ENTRANCE REGION JET SUPPORT..SHOULD

ENCOURAGE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHWRS AND TSTMS ALONG AND FRONT AS

WELL AS POST FRONTAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PD. THE VERY HIGH

PWS..ALONG WITH SLOW SHIFT OF MOIST LOW LEVEL JET AND POTNL FOR

TRAINING SHOULD SUPPORT A LARGE SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCH RAINS WITH

LOCALLY HIER AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES IN STGR CONVECTION AND WHERE

TRAINING OCCURS. A MDT EXCESSIVE THREAT WAS INDICATED ACRS

PORTIONS OF SE IL..SRN IN AND SW OH WHERE SOMEWHAT LOWER FF

GUIDANCE VALUES ARE PRESENT.

[msp]

I'll be in the bullseye for this one next couple days in Bloomington, IN. Current forecast has 1-2 tonight, 1-2 tomorrow, and another quarter or half tomorrow night.

[Stebo]

I'll be in the bullseye for this one next couple days in Bloomington, IN. Current forecast has 1-2 tonight, 1-2 tomorrow, and another quarter or half tomorrow night.

First you have to leave Houston to Chicago

[jhamps10]

We had 1.47" from the morning/afternoon rains here in Flora.

[Hoosier]

Rackin it up here. 1.23" in the past 3 hours.

[KeenerWx]

It's pretty nasty out there--heavy rain/excessive ponding on the roads, cold, windy, and very foggy.

[Stebo]

Keep on raining down there guys, the more the better for all of us this winter.

[janetjanet998]

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

130 AM CST THU NOV 25 2010

..A MAXIMUM DAILY RAINFALL RECORD SET AT ST. LOUIS MO

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 3.08 INCHES WAS SET AT LAMBERT INTERNATIONAL

AIRPORT IN ST LOUIS MO ON WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 24TH. THE PREVIOUS

RECORD WAS 1.73 INCHES IN 1987

[msp]

1.51" here in bloomington since yesterday morning with thunderstorms passing over the last couple hours. looks like we'll add an inch or two more today.

[IWXwx]

1.51" here in bloomington since yesterday morning with thunderstorms passing over the last couple hours. looks like we'll add an inch or two more today.

Glad to see you made back to IN. We've had almost the same amount of rain up here, with 1.55" falling since yesterday afternoon. No thunder up here though. I see they put up a couple of T-storm warnings in Southern IN this morning.

Like you said, I expect another inch up here this afternoon.

EDIT: I just saw the severe thread. Tornado warnings at 5AM on Thanksgiving in IN. Wow.

[hoosierwx]

1.9 inches here yesterday morning through this morning, expecting around an inch more. I guess it's still a little up in the air as far as how fast the front makes it here, slower timing would equal heavier and more convective rains.

[Chicago WX]

Rackin it up here. 1.23" in the past 3 hours.

LAF sitting at 1.69" total...for yesterday through this morning...with what looks like another 0.25"-0.50" of a mixed bag on the way later today.

[msp]

2.45" here so far.

57/56 now with rain increasing in intensity.

[hoosierwx]

Closing in on 3" and might get another inch if we are lucky. Drought cancel.

[msp]

Closing in on 3" and might get another inch if we are lucky. Drought cancel.

3.10" now here with moderate rain continuing.

[msp]

Finished now with 3.37"

[IWXwx]

Finished with 2.08" and a trace of snow here in Huntington. We have received 2.67" since the 22nd and have 3.09" for Nov.

Just south of my area and downstate in general did much better than us as msp (Bloomington) and hoosierwx (French Lick) shows.

Now that we have a stormy pattern going, let's get some of this precip in here at the same time we have some cold air to work with.

[hoosierwx]

Ended up with 4.3 inches for the event.

[wxman_ind]

Thursday's 1.45 inches of rain make Thanksgiving 2010 the wettest Thanksgiving on record at Indianapolis.

[oldlogin]

2.25 for this event IMBY

[Trent]

1.29 imby, 1.51 at CLE. It's been a couple years since the last time we've had that much rain in a day.