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February 5-6 Storm Threat I


Baroclinic Zone

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Seems like there is some disagreement between the BOX and ALY AFD's. ALY follows:

REGARDING SATURDAY...QUITE A STREAM OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SEEN

IN CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ALONG

THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER...WEST OF TX...WILL EJECT NORTHEAST AS MORE

NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA. SOME SPREAD IN STORM

TRACKS AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION TRANSITION ZONES NOTED

IN GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES. CURRENT CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN

U.S. SUGGESTS THAT ONCE THE STORM ORGANIZES...SOME CONVECTION

WILL OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR...SUGGESTING POTENTIALLY HIGHER

MOISTURE AND MORE NORTHERLY STORM TRACK DUE TO DOWNSTREAM UPPER

RIDGING. MANY AREAS COULD SEE SOLID TO HIGH END ADVISORY LEVEL

SNOWS...WHILE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT AND SOUTHERN

BERKSHIRES COULD SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION. SO...AT THIS

STAGE...GOING WITH LIKELY SNOW IN MANY AREAS...AND LIKELY MIX IN

THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT...NOT QUITE TO THE SOUTHERN

BERKSHIRES...BUT LATER GUIDANCE WILL BE CONSULTED ON THAT AS THE

EVENT GETS NEARER. TIME OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL DETERMINE

HOW WARM WE GET SATURDAY. EARLIER ONSET...WHICH IS MOST

LIKELY...SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF CURRENT

GUIDANCE. SO...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

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Hey Mike, The snowy part of our Winter is just about to get going. Nice extended forecast for the High Terrain. Snow/Cold. Big Winter incoming, Big Big Winter.

Think you might be right, Pete. I didn't see mention of winds going into last night. But after that nice coda of snow between 6-8, we cranked here. Gusted to 33mph before midnight, 30 after. Given my anameter siting, that's pretty impressive.

FTL, I need to buy some wood. I'll be through my dry cords in about 10-14 days. I knew I didn't have enough. My green's been split and cut but prefer to not tackle that. Not to mention that it's buried under 3' of snow.

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If you read between the lines aly..box and upton are all very nervous with regards to Saturday's storm.

the only things guaranteed is that there will be an east coast storm and there is no good source of cold air in place...

i am really worried about rain with this one..after maybe a few inches of heavy wet snow and a little sleet.

maybe the deep snowpack will help..upton has very warm highs for nyc area early next week...but even if this event is more wet than white i do think we have not seen the last of big snows for the entire sea board..i still believe there is an 1-95 monster in the cards sometime before winter ends..

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Think you might be right, Pete. I didn't see mention of winds going into last night. But after that nice coda of snow between 6-8, we cranked here. Gusted to 33mph before midnight, 30 after. Given my anameter siting, that's pretty impressive.

FTL, I need to buy some wood. I'll be through my dry cords in about 10-14 days. I knew I didn't have enough. My green's been split and cut but prefer to not tackle that. Not to mention that it's buried under 3' of snow.

CoT FTW. Move it back because more on the way.

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If you read between the lines aly..box and upton are all very nervous with regards to Saturday's storm.

the only things guaranteed is that there will be an east coast storm and there is no good source of cold air in place...

i am really worried about rain with this one..after maybe a few inches of heavy wet snow and a little sleet.

maybe the deep snowpack will help..upton has very warm highs for nyc area early next week...but even if this event is more wet than white i do think we have not seen the last of big snows for the entire sea board..i still believe there is an 1-95 monster in the cards sometime before winter ends..

You worry too much. You've cancelled Winter several times and look where that's gotten you.lol

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Keeping the wood pile snow free and dug out has become quite the task these days. At least it is staying cold so the wood isn't getting wet. 1717 Mike, get ready! Winter is just getting going.

The interior high terrain is just getting going. Big Winter incoming, Big Big Winter!

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Geez I like my zone. The have separated the Concord area from the next group south which borders Box. In that zone they still call for neavy accumulation but say sleet might mix in. They are juicier (implied) than HPC which has CON right around .5 and up to .75 s and e of there.

SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEBANON...HANOVER...PLYMOUTH...WOLFEBORO...OSSIPEE...CLAREMONT...NEWPORT...CHARLESTOWN...CONCORD...HOOKSETT...LACONIA...MEREDITH708 AM EST THU FEB 3 2011.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THISMORNING...THEN SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 20. LIGHT ANDVARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT..TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 3 BELOW TO 3 ABOVE ZERO. LIGHT ANDVARIABLE WINDS..FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH..FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLYCLOUDY. LOWS 5 TO 11 ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS..SATURDAY...SNOW. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 30. LIGHTAND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT..SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.LOWS AROUND 20..SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.LOWS 10 TO 15..MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.HIGHS AROUND 30. LOWS AROUND 20..TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS INTHE MID 20S..TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVEZERO. HIGHS 15 TO 20.

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OT: But did you all see the Winter Storm Warnings all the way from the very southern tip of Texas - litterally brownsville texas extending almost the entire gulf coast to new orleans then winter weather advisories into the panhandle of florida. What a CRAZY winter. Brownsville Texas! I think their criteria is for 1 flake of snow in the air laugh.gif

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GYX AFD is talking dirty.

HEAVIEST SNOWFALL DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT

IT APPEARS A WIDESPREAD 6 TO 10 INCH SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. RECENT

CLIMATOLOGY WOULD FAVOR THE OFFSHORE TRACK...WITH THE HEAVIEST

SNOWFALL ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE COAST.

Yeah, I liked seeing this. I would have more confidence if the stupid GFS didn't send this off the coast this morning. The last couple days it has really been flopping back and forth on this. I suspect 12Z will be more like 0Z, which was perfect.

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Keeping the wood pile snow free and dug out has become quite the task these days. At least it is staying cold so the wood isn't getting wet. 1717 Mike, get ready! Winter is just getting going.

Yup--I've been thinking two things recently. One is how long into the year will will have snow on the ground. The other is tied to the tapping of the maples. Those taps will be higher than usual. While many of us are hooked to a tube system, some of bucketed the old fashioned way. Be a chore having to trek through to empty those buckets every day.

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So I guess my math is wrong, Taunton has taken 6 days off so far due to the weather. As it stands now, the school year would go to June 28th since they started on Sept 7th. The school committee is meeting to discuss options, of which include longer days, Saturday's, and April vacation.

No way Saturday. They tried that in '96. They'll just take away April vacation.

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Yeah, I liked seeing this. I would have more confidence if the stupid GFS didn't send this off the coast this morning. The last couple days it has really been flopping back and forth on this. I suspect 12Z will be more like 0Z, which was perfect.

Not to worry, It plays right into its bias, I like it being SE right now

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The good news with this system is that where it snows obviously there will be a gain. Where it rains, it's a quick mover so not too much rain will fall. Or maybe that's just my qpf fixation talking.

Just keep repeating that in your mind over and over and over, Where it snows it will snow a lot, And if it rains it will be out of here quick..lol

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Probably.

Hey, what did the 00z Euro ensembles show? They looked borderline down in interior SE MA but good for the interior?

Yeah a change to snow for you at the end. Not really feeling this one, for us. Next week intrigues me more. Hopefully the runs tick colder, but this has a chance of going right over the canal.

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Yeah a change to snow for you at the end. Not really feeling this one, for us. Next week intrigues me more. Hopefully the runs tick colder, but this has a chance of going right over the canal.

We are finally starting to catch up on snows with you guys down there, The only difference is we are about avg and you guys are having a phenomenal year.. :snowman:

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