simpsonsbuff Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Do the Euro And GGEM and ensembles support any of those snowfall forecast maps? Would think ORH would do okay here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Florence MA? It's 12:20PM and already 60* here. Feels like a late-April New England morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 As of now, the euro doesn't support those amounts in CT, but I'm not sure if its solution is totally correct either. I'd probably weigh the forecast closer to the euro, however. Makes sense given the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 WCVB Boston calling for a 2-5" N of ORH west of 495 Not sure how to do a capture of their image and can't find a pure map on their website Orange MA at -11F. 3.2F here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Would think ORH would do okay here? Right on the line here..Hopefully whatever it starts as can flip to snow pretty quickly and bang downa a quick 3-5 or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 As of now, the euro doesn't support those amounts in CT, but I'm not sure if its solution is totally correct either. I'd probably weigh the forecast closer to the euro, however. Makes sense given the pattern. What about the Euro do you think might not totally be correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Based on Brian's description, I'm pretty sure the Euro looks something like the GGEM I thought the EC only had .5 across the region. My guess is some areas (Northern ORH/GC and north) will have advisories posted for this. GYX may throw in a warning, but perhaps not given different threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Perfect example of radiational cooling...IJD is -7 .I'm at 13 above on the hill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I thought the EC only had .5 across the region. My guess is some areas (Northern ORH/GC and north) will have advisories posted for this. GYX may throw in a warning, but perhaps not given different threshold. Perhaps I was being NHcentric, but Brian had said Euro was .5-1 here with .75 being probable... that's pretty close to the map posted... certainly the setup is a hell of lot closer than anything the GFS or NAM has... Gosh I love this type of stuff... Can really make you look like you know what you're talking about, if you go Snowy.... considering the calls by the tv and nws... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Hey Mike, Box's thinking. Looks like we gain either way. SO THE POSSIBLE WEATHER SCENARIOS ARE - ECMWF WOULD OFFER HEAVY WET SNOW OF 4-8 INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHERN NH. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WOULD RESULT IN MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. THIS COULD YIELD POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING GIVEN SOME SNOW MELT CONTRIBUTION ALONG WITH MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE OTHER SCENARIO IS THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT LESS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE RAIN WOULD LIKELY MIX IN. GIVEN THE SREF HAS SWUNG IN THE ECMWF DIRECTION WITH SNOW PROBS OF 4+ INCHES NOW ACROSS NW MA INTO SOUTHERN NH...THINKING REALITY WILL BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE NAM/GFS WITH MORE WEIGHT TOWARD THE ECMWF. WAS CONTEMPLATING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NW MA AND SRN NH BUT AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES /ALY AND GYX/ DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE AS HEAVY WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4+ INCHES WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF DOWN TREE LIMBS AND ADDITIONAL ROOF COLLAPSES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 -8/-14, Should be another beautiful day to work outside. Have noticed more birdsong over the last week or so, but when it's below 0 it's still pretty quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What about the Euro do you think might not totally be correct? Well I could see it maybe adjusting a little east. It might not happen, but it would not shock me. Either way, I think Will and I hatched out the reasons for a cstl hugger. We still have to watch out for those big height falls. That will probably cause a quick dynamic flip to snow for you, but the euro wastes a lot of qpf before then. With the model madness, I'd hate to make a forecast for CT, but I think they may be too far south for any good snow. If the GFS verifies, they'll get the 3-6", but the GFS may be too far east. An adjustment in between the Euro and GFS may give you 2-4" perhaps. The NAM actually keeps places like FIT mostly snow with a track over the Cape. That tells me that this little bugger has enough cold air aloft to pull a few surprises if it can deeper quick enough or tick se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Hey Mike, Box's thinking. Looks like we gain either way. SO THE POSSIBLE WEATHER SCENARIOS ARE - ECMWF WOULD OFFER HEAVY WET SNOW OF 4-8 INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHERN NH. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WOULD RESULT IN MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. THIS COULD YIELD POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING GIVEN SOME SNOW MELT CONTRIBUTION ALONG WITH MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE OTHER SCENARIO IS THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT LESS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE RAIN WOULD LIKELY MIX IN. GIVEN THE SREF HAS SWUNG IN THE ECMWF DIRECTION WITH SNOW PROBS OF 4+ INCHES NOW ACROSS NW MA INTO SOUTHERN NH...THINKING REALITY WILL BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE NAM/GFS WITH MORE WEIGHT TOWARD THE ECMWF. WAS CONTEMPLATING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NW MA AND SRN NH BUT AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES /ALY AND GYX/ DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE AS HEAVY WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4+ INCHES WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF DOWN TREE LIMBS AND ADDITIONAL ROOF COLLAPSES. Cool beans. I think we have the balancing act of ratio vs. qpf going on here. Hope we get that right balance. Andy's station is calling for "minor snowfall on Saturday". Of course, we'll be closer to higher qpf here. I hope:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Here is the WCVB map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 03Z SREFs are interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Well I could see it maybe adjusting a little east. It might not happen, but it would not shock me. Either way, I think Will and I hatched out the reasons for a cstl hugger. We still have to watch out for those big height falls. That will probably cause a quick dynamic flip to snow for you, but the euro wastes a lot of qpf before then. With the model madness, I'd hate to make a forecast for CT, but I think they may be too far south for any good snow. If the GFS verifies, they'll get the 3-6", but the GFS may be too far east. An adjustment in between the Euro and GFS may give you 2-4" perhaps. The NAM actually keeps places like FIT mostly snow with a track over the Cape. That tells me that this little bugger has enough cold air aloft to pull a few surprises if it can deeper quick enough or tick se. Thanks for the breakdown. Maybe we can get a few hours of zr before it goes to snow. I have a feeling surface temps might stay 32 or below here..esp with clear skies early..then clouds coming in towards dawn locking in the cold surface temps.and deep snowpack with little mixing. It's the midlevels we have to worry about initially right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Some of the models hint at good frontogenesis as it flips to snow. The mid level low tracks overhead, but a band of precip drags along to the sw, in response to the 700 low crossing sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Cool beans. I think we have the balancing act of ratio vs. qpf going on here. Hope we get that right balance. Andy's station is calling for "minor snowfall on Saturday". Of course, we'll be closer to higher qpf here. I hope:) It seems likely that we'll get between 2-8" lol. I don't care how we get it I just want more snow. My daughter and I have been building an eleaborate snow fort in the backyard and I'm looking forward to working on it tomorrow in falling snow. My own call is we'll pick up 6-7" when it's all said and done. This is when our elevation and locale will start to pay dividends. Our biggest snow of the year has yet to happen. Big Winter incoming, Big Big Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 so cloudy with precipitation tomorrow for the hfd/spfd area lol with a chance of puddles...plowing or scraping. highs near32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Thanks for the breakdown. Maybe we can get a few hours of zr before it goes to snow. I have a feeling surface temps might stay 32 or below here..esp with clear skies early..then clouds coming in towards dawn locking in the cold surface temps.and deep snowpack with little mixing. It's the midlevels we have to worry about initially right? Yes, that's the issue. Temps may be perhaps 32 or 33 for you, but I don't see that as the major problem for your areas, unless the 00z UKIE verifies. The more I look at it, the more I think it will be a dynamic flip to snow for some. Heights really fall quickly. Lets get it a little more se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 03Z SREFs are interesting. do tell.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Yes, that's the issue. Temps may be perhaps 32 or 33 for you, but I don't see that as the major problem for your areas, unless the 00z UKIE verifies. The more I look at it, the more I think it will be a dynamic flip to snow for some. Heights really fall quickly. Lets get it a little more se. Was there enough spread on the ens to allow for a slight Se shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I see how it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanInWayland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 OT - but I just had to post Florence's weather for the next few days. (per Accuweather) TODAY - Sunny 65* TOMORROW - Sunny 67* SUNDAY - Sunny 69* Monday - Sunny 70* Tuesday - Sunny 63* Average high is in the low 50s, so this is unseasonable to say the least. Hey, NorEastermass128, where in Florence do you live? When I was a kid, I lived for a couple of years on Via Della Mattonaia, in the northeast section. Good times. We saw snow a grand total of two times, and it stuck just once (briefly). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Was there enough spread on the ens to allow for a slight Se shift? Well the OP run was on the nw edge of the guidance, when looking at 850 temps. It may be because the op run is sniffing out the potential for a cstl hugger, but it also may imply that it could perhaps shift a little se. We'll see what 12z does today. This has been a whacky set of solutions over the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Meanwhile, wifey's flight was canceled from San Antonio. They booked her flight with another airline, but hopefully they make it out later this aftn. No de-icing equipment down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It seems likely that we'll get between 2-8" lol. I don't care how we get it I just want more snow. My daughter and I have been building an eleaborate snow fort in the backyard and I'm looking forward to working on it tomorrow in falling snow. My own call is we'll pick up 6-7" when it's all said and done. This is when our elevation and locale will start to pay dividends. Our biggest snow of the year has yet to happen. Big Winter incoming, Big Big Winter. That's awesome...what a great Dad! I think the pattern has shifted to the interior AWT and I think it will eventually go back to one thats good for all of us. I started my morning lke I usually do, first with the NWS zones and AFD. GYX is usually conservative so it sets my expectations low. Then I read our hread to see what's the broader context/possibilities. I feel pretty good about 4 inches or more up here. 4 will be my over under on this storm. It's cool how much more I enjoy a 4 inch snowfall when we already have 2 or 3 ft on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Pretty crappy overnight runs for next week. ugly. i don't know if later next week will ride right up over SNE or not...but there isn't a whole lot out there to say it can't if it does actually form and not remain OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Was there enough spread on the ens to allow for a slight Se shift? why are you and ray so concerned if there's a little rain? it would hardly dent your snowpack and it's a fast mover anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Perfect example of radiational cooling...IJD is -7 .I'm at 13 above on the hill lol...I'm half way up a hill and I'm -4°F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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