Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Pretty crappy overnight runs for next week. Check out the Euro 850 winds for day 7 132 knots just offshore HSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I think that's been the case for most guidance. So I'd favor a hugger track...but it still doesn't make it an easy forecast. The heights crash very quickly and a lot of places flip to snow even on the Euro...so something slightly colder would throw even more of a wrench into the equation. Though that's pretty much been my rough thinking on this system for SNE...interior like Monads/N ORH county sees maybe some brief ptype issues early on and then flip to snow while the rest of the region goes rain to snow. The Euro is actually sleet and freezing rain to snow over interior this run as sfc temps are below frz there. But just a tiny little shift in thermal profile could make a decent difference for some areas (like 2 inches vs 6 inches) Ice to snow I guess is the way to go for us tomorrow. Euro is probably a bit too amped and west ,but no way we'll start as all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Kevins gonna flip Tolland schools closed again but worse the national guard is coming to widen the roads.. Heavy heavy damage to his piles. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Lol Sam. It's a snow event for 90% of SNE. AMOUT AKT AIT AWT BYOB I see how it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What? News said last night 100 troops/trucks heading to Tolland today, heavy massive damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 EC ens look like the EC op. Pretty nice quick thump up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 News said last night 100 troops/trucks heading to Tolland today, heavy massive damage. For the school roofs I just saw that..But not the rds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 EC ens look like the EC op. Pretty nice quick thump up here. What was the qpf? i never heard it... I"m guessing on track and NWS discussion that it's similar to the GGEM? BTW, get a load of the RGEM 6z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It is comical the way this is being handled. Pick a card, any card (I'd actually pick the EC). Since thre doesn't appear to be a general obs thread going, crazy temp spread out there this morning. 9.1/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Since thre doesn't appear to be a general obs thread going, crazy temp spread out there this morning. 9.1/3. That looks like some kind of joke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 From HPC's graphics. They have no one hitting 10% on 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 From HPC's graphics. They have no one hitting 10% on 8". I'm giving you a 9% chance on hitting 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It is comical the way this is being handled. Pick a card, any card (I'd actually pick the EC). NWS is not in a gr8 position here... If every model were like the Euro, watches could possibly be issued... As it is, there are a few advisories in Jersey, PA, and New York... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What was the qpf? i never heard it... I"m guessing on track and NWS discussion that it's similar to the GGEM? BTW, get a load of the RGEM 6z... EC has us in 0.50-1.00". I don't know what we exactly are, but the 0.50" line is up to BML and the southern end is over the S Coast of SNE. So if someone put a gun to my head I'd guess closer to 0.75". 00-06z Sunday there's a 6hr QPF max stripoe from LEB-here-LCI-PWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 EC has us in 0.50-1.00". I don't know what we exactly are, but the 0.50" line is up to BML and the southern end is over the S Coast of SNE. So if someone put a gun to my head I'd guess closer to 0.75". 00-06z Sunday there's a 6hr QPF max stripoe from LEB-here-LCI-PWM. What would you forecast for SNE as far as ptype from start to finish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 EC has us in 0.50-1.00". I don't know what we exactly are, but the 0.50" line is up to BML and the southern end is over the S Coast of SNE. So if someone put a gun to my head I'd guess closer to 0.75". 00-06z Sunday there's a 6hr QPF max stripoe from LEB-here-LCI-PWM. Thanks... I'm going foreign cause I'm a weenie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Not saying the EC/Ukie are correct, but they have been the best recently at H5....and that's where the differences lie for Sat-Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 EC has us in 0.50-1.00". I don't know what we exactly are, but the 0.50" line is up to BML and the southern end is over the S Coast of SNE. So if someone put a gun to my head I'd guess closer to 0.75". 00-06z Sunday there's a 6hr QPF max stripoe from LEB-here-LCI-PWM. This sounds good to me. GYX was humping the GFS and SREFs. I'll take the Doc anytime over them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Not saying the EC/Ukie are correct, but they have been the best recently at H5....and that's where the differences lie for Sat-Sun. Go figure ... the southern outlier GFS is performing the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS still offshore, but came west. The only saving grace is the vortmax coming overhead or just south and heights plummet when that happens. Maybe an inch or two for Kevin but 2-4 or 3-5 up by nrn ORH county perhaps. Edit: on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Boy I'd love for the GFS to verify..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Based on Brian's description, I'm pretty sure the Euro looks something like the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Here's the commentary from ALY. Currently saying, just below advisory-level. Hopefully, those amounts might be higher just to the east of their cwa. ALL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE SHOW BEST CORE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS POU TO NW CT...WHICH SEEMS IN CONFLICT WITH BRINGING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION FURTHER NW. ALSO...SOME HILLIER AREAS AROUND POU AND NW CT TO THE BERKSHIRES COULD SEE A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHILE SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD AND POU COULD SEE A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AS IT IS...TEMPERATURES EVEN TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VT SHOULD GET TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. SO SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL BE WET...WITH BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL SNOW RATIOS. UPPER ENERGY...ISENTROPIC LIFT...FRONTOGENESIS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WIND CONVERGENCE PREDICTED TO EXIT QUICKLY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LIMITING THE DURATION OF PRECIPITATION... AGAIN IMPLYING THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE WETTEST AND DRIEST GUIDANCE VALUES. WORDING A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR A MIX. FOR AREAS THAT SEE MOSTLY SNOW...GOING JUST UNDER ADVISORY AMOUNTS...KNOWING THAT WHEN 12Z GUIDANCE ARRIVES LATER TODAY...BETTER CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE WILL HELP ZERO IN ON AREAS NEEDING ADVISORIES...EITHER FOR AROUND 4" OF SNOW...OR INCREASING CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN TO LIKELY...SO STAY TUNED LATER TODAY FOR THOSE DECISIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What would you forecast for SNE as far as ptype from start to finish? Tough one...I don't like the airmass during the day on Saturday for you guys (even here I may hit 33-35F). I think it would be RA to some snow at the end for the valleys/coast and RA/ZR for the higher terrain transitioning to some accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What a couple of stations are calling for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Do the Euro And GGEM and ensembles support any of those snowfall forecast maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Tough one... I don't like the airmass during the day on Saturday for you guys (even here I may hit 33-35F). I think it would be RA to some snow at the end for the valleys/coast and RA/ZR for the higher terrain transitioning to some accumulating snow. The airmass is kind of meh for sure. It would probably be one of those 32F flash overs for many, if they do go to snow. I think the higher terrain from ORH north and over to you are fine at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 OT - but I just had to post Florence's weather for the next few days. (per Accuweather) TODAY - Sunny 65* TOMORROW - Sunny 67* SUNDAY - Sunny 69* Monday - Sunny 70* Tuesday - Sunny 63* Average high is in the low 50s, so this is unseasonable to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Similar thinking for the springfield stations. Here's 22' map and channel 40 has an "early call" of 2-6 region-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 OT - but I just had to post Florence's weather for the next few days. (per Accuweather) TODAY - Sunny 65* TOMORROW - Sunny 67* SUNDAY - Sunny 69* Monday - Sunny 70* Tuesday - Sunny 63* Average high is in the low 50s, so this is unseasonable to say the least. Florence MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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