40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It would be a quick flash to snow though on the Euro...heights crash quickly. I may break even in this verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Well I'm just relaxing after driving 400 miles today. Very deep snow on the east side of the Hudson Valley from northern Westchester to a bit SE of ALB. Like you are driving through tunnels. I guess SNE looks like that. you would do well according to the euro.. better than round 2 from the other day at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I may break even in this verbatim. This is an impossible forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This is an impossible forecast. You just have to look at what the synoptic pattern favors and it isn't much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 You just have to look at what the synoptic pattern favors and it isn't much snow. Certainly not for the CP, but for the area I am forecasting for its a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Well the models usually hone in on a solution in the final 24 hours nowadays. We'll know by 0Z tomorrow night. This is an impossible forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Well the models usually hone in on a solution in the final 24 hours nowadays. We'll know by 0Z tomorrow night. Its been pretty amazing recently with the model solutions...the Jan 26-27 storm had a disaster inside of 3 days too. The Euro has had many problems inside of 3 days this season when its normally a sniper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm sick to my stomach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 where does the low track tween 48 and 72? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm sick to my stomach. Why? Its a moderate snow if it hits, and a rain to snow if it doesn't. Its not a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 C coast of LI to cc. where does the low track tween 48 and 72? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Why? Its a moderate snow if it hits, and a rain to snow if it doesn't. Its not a big deal. I'm just afraid of the UK or RGEM.....probably won't happen, but this pattern stinks enough to worry. You think I'd break even on this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This is an impossible forecast. the gfs is the southeastern outlier at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 the gfs is the southeastern outlier at this point Along with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 the gfs is the southeastern outlier at this point And the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 And the NAM. if i remember correctly, it's been too far s/e with every storm this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 if i remember correctly, it's been too far s/e with every storm this winter The GFS and NAM obviously aren't favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I guess you have been a little above freezing a few times...but I have not seen 32 since New Years. I'm hoping to keep the streak alive. I guess early next week it has to get above 32 by a bit. Along with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 if i remember correctly, it's been too far s/e with every storm this winter I think that's been the case for most guidance. So I'd favor a hugger track...but it still doesn't make it an easy forecast. The heights crash very quickly and a lot of places flip to snow even on the Euro...so something slightly colder would throw even more of a wrench into the equation. Though that's pretty much been my rough thinking on this system for SNE...interior like Monads/N ORH county sees maybe some brief ptype issues early on and then flip to snow while the rest of the region goes rain to snow. The Euro is actually sleet and freezing rain to snow over interior this run as sfc temps are below frz there. But just a tiny little shift in thermal profile could make a decent difference for some areas (like 2 inches vs 6 inches) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Now it looks to be hanging the energy for the bomb back in the sw farther....awesome run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I haven't even looked at this late next week thing. JB is going on about it being a superstorm.... LOL Now it looks to be hanging the energy for the bomb back in the sw farther....awesome run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Now it looks to be hanging the energy for the bomb back in the sw farther....awesome run. Looks like a more robust version of Tusday's "event". This run makes we long for opening day at Fenway. Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 00z Euro has a rain to flash snow event. The further west the better, however, as in western CT, Berks, etc. Catskills of NY probably wind up with highest snowfalls, on the order of a moderate event -- 8" or so -- on this Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 My house is leaking...what a fookn night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 New NAM is even warmer than the EURO....rainer for the cp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 6Z NAM continues to trend warmer from the 18Z / 0Z still looks like 4-8 interior... if i've learned anything this season, it's to wait until 24 hrs prior to an event as models have been abominable... but as i've said since yesterday, climo favors the warmer solutions. the juju takes a breather... back with a miller B bomb tuesday...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 00z NAM and GFS are too weak and too far SE. They both have busted badly on ongoing precip. over southern AR, east TX, and southern OK. You can see on radar and water vapor loops that the shortwave entering the southern Plains is hanging back more which will promote more phasing, and keep the surface low stronger and closer to the NJ coast than the GFS and NAM indicate. The 00z ECMWF ensemble (left) and operational (right) have caught these changes well. Notice how much slower the southern Plains system is compared to the ECMWF from 24 hours ago - huge changes for a 1 to 2 day forecast. Given these trends, I'm backing off from yesterday on snow in the BDL-BOS corridor. Agree with Will that this is a very difficult forecast, but the probability that the event stays mostly snow from DXR to BDL to BOS has decreased markedly. Western MA and interior southern NH look to be in the best position for 4"+ at this point. ZR could still be an issue in the corridor from BDL to ORH County and even into NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I still think the risk is a little more closer to the coast, unless the meat grinder GFS verifies. The s/w speed and shearing is the only real thing arguing for an offshore track, but if that trends stronger...then this comes closer. Unfortunetely, I may be right and not just for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Slower and stronger is better for me. 6z GFS was a step in the right direction but I need more up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Pretty crappy overnight runs for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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